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Within the final decade, counting days have hardly ever introduced cheer to the Congress camp. That modified on Saturday with the occasion’s greatest win within the state since 1989. What led to this spectacular victory? It was evident throughout the marketing campaign that the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) was dealing with extreme anti-incumbency. The state authorities’s efficiency was thought of subpar, with allegations of corruption on the highest stage, and little to assert on the governance entrance. With its tallest chief BS Yediyurappa not in competition for the chief minister (CM)’s submit, the incumbent Basavaraj Bommai appeared a poor match for the Congress’s front-line management, particularly former CM Siddaramaiah.
Whereas the BJP’s general vote share could point out that it retained its 2018 base, there’s a marked shift within the composition — geographically and socially. The occasion has suffered losses throughout the state — most notably in its conventional stronghold of Bombay-Karnataka. Nonetheless, the occasion has made noticeable beneficial properties in votes in southern Karnataka, particularly within the Previous Mysuru area. The BJP can take solace in the truth that the losses should not big, regardless of huge anti-incumbency and the purging of the previous management. A brand new BJP within the state is likely to be getting created from the ashes of its 2023 defeat.
The Congress, alternatively, made vital beneficial properties. It utterly decimated different events in Bombay-Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, and the Previous Mysuru area. The shrinking of the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), in Previous Mysuru created beneficial situations for the Congress to transform seats at a a lot larger price.
The Congress additionally benefited from a consolidation of sure social teams in its favour — particularly the decrease socio-economic strata. The India At this time-Axis My India exit ballot survey indicated that the Congress, as compared with its 2018 social base, gained roughly 10 proportion factors amongst Dalits and Muslims, and round 5 proportion factors among the many Kurubas, Scheduled Tribes, and Vokkaligas. Equally, in socioeconomic phrases, the Congress’s lead over the BJP among the many poorer sections was in double digits.
It’s among the many city higher center lessons (which comprise lower than 10% of the voters) that the BJP had a slight benefit over the Congress. Younger voters additionally supported the Congress in bigger numbers — its vote share among the many voters beneath 35 is roughly eight proportion factors larger as compared with the occasion’s vote share amongst voters above 50. The Congress additionally had substantial benefit amongst girls voters.
What explains the consolidation of the underside half of society — in caste and sophistication phrases — behind the Congress?
This transformation in voting patterns means that the Congress could have succeeded in reviving its Ahinda social coalition of backward lessons, Dalits, and Muslims created by Devaraj Urs within the Seventies. A mix of financial anxieties fuelled by an increase in costs of important commodities together with the ballot guarantees that the Congress made could have helped the occasion make huge beneficial properties among the many economically marginalised. The Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey performed just a few weeks earlier than voting day indicated that unemployment, poverty, and value rise have been among the many key points for voters.
What are the implications of the Karnataka verdict for nationwide politics? The Lok Sabha elections are nonetheless virtually a 12 months away, however 4 essential meeting elections are scheduled later this 12 months — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.
First, the most important lesson for the Congress from Karnataka needs to be to maintain the state-level management united throughout the marketing campaign. There could also be no love misplaced between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, but each leaders shunned taking potshots at one another throughout the marketing campaign. They even made efforts to seem collectively in rallies and social media boards to guarantee that the rank and file rallies behind the occasion candidates. The Congress faces related management tussles in two poll-bound states, and the problem can be to maintain dissidence beneath wraps so it doesn’t adversely have an effect on the occasion’s marketing campaign platform and candidate nomination.
Second, whereas the Congress has a barely simpler time as a challenger enjoying the narrative of financial nervousness and highlighting the failures of the incumbent BJP authorities within the state, it should not neglect that the BJP can very effectively flip this narrative on its head in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan later this 12 months. The Congress can solely reap the benefits because the incumbents in these states, if they’ve delivered on the guarantees made.
Third, the occasion’s spectacular success in Karnataka underlines the significance of retaining meeting elections targeted on native points and state-level management. The essential query for the Congress is that if this mannequin might be scaled up throughout the nationwide elections. Whereas it isn’t simple — the BJP beneath Prime Minister Narendra Modi will depart no stone unturned to make Lok Sabha elections nationwide in character — the Congress, together with its allies, should craft a marketing campaign narrative wherein the elections change into a state-by-state contest. This isn’t unimaginable, with the 2004 Lok Sabha elections being an instance. Nevertheless, the systemic options of political competitors since 2014 pose vital hurdles to any such try.
Nonetheless, convincingly profitable Karnataka is a large morale booster for the Congress. It’s their first main state victory after the Bharat Jodo Yatra. It’ll assist the occasion on a number of fronts — shaping the marketing campaign narrative no less than until the following spherical of meeting elections, elevated bargaining energy vis-à-vis potential allies, and essential monetary assets that may go a good distance in supporting its nationwide marketing campaign.
Nevertheless, the occasion should additionally stay cautious in over-interpreting the Karnataka mandate. The victory has created situations and provided pathways for the occasion to consider its revival plans; it has, under no circumstances, reversed the course of the occasion’s declining fortunes.
Rahul Verma is with the Centre for Coverage Analysis (CPR), New Delhi
The views expressed are private
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