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MADISON, WISCONSIN – In April, the United Nations estimated that India had overtaken China because the world’s most populous nation. Whereas the announcement acquired an excessive amount of media consideration, India’s 2024 census will doubtless reveal that the U.N.’s projections have been vastly overestimated.
Based on India’s most up-to-date census knowledge, the nation’s inhabitants stood at 1.03 billion in 2001 and 1.21 billion in 2011. The U.N.’s 2022 World Inhabitants Prospects (WPP) report, nevertheless, put these figures at 1.08 billion and 1.26 billion, respectively. Furthermore, India’s Nationwide Household Well being Survey indicated a fertility charge of 1.99 in 2017-19, in distinction to the WPP’s estimate of two.16.
On the 1974 U.N. inhabitants convention in Bucharest, India’s then-Minister for Well being and Household Planning, Karan Singh, famously stated, “Growth is the perfect contraceptive.” Whereas it’s typically assumed that revenue per capita is immediately correlated with fertility, declining fertility charges are primarily pushed by enhancements in well being and schooling, together with the broader availability of contraceptives. This pattern is clear in India, the place the fertility charge has plummeted in tandem with reductions in toddler mortality and rising schooling ranges.
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