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Final month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gained his second time period in probably the most hotly contested election within the final twenty years, and cemented his place in Turkish historical past by changing into its longest-serving ruler. To date, that distinction belonged to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the Turkish republic and its first president from 1923 until his dying in 1938.
The 2023 election befell in opposition to two unfavorable developments. First, a weak financial system, with inflation operating at over 40% and a weakening lira that depreciated by 80% since 2018. The second was the devastating earthquake in February that claimed 50,000 lives and uncovered that constructing codes have been violated with impunity due to widespread corruption.
For the primary time, six Opposition events got here collectively decided to finish Erdogan’s autocratic rule. The rising unity led by the Republican Individuals’s Social gathering (CHP) evidently rattled Erdogan, and the federal government revived an previous case in opposition to Ekrem Imamaoglu, the favored mayor of Istanbul. After appreciable political manoeuvring, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu grew to become the Opposition candidate. A soft-spoken former civil servant who entered politics in 1999, he made it clear his aim was to transition Turkey to a parliamentary system and restore the independence and integrity of establishments just like the central financial institution and judiciary.
Within the run-up to the elections, opinion polls gave a slight edge to Kilicdaroglu. However within the first spherical on Could 14, Erdogan led with 49.4% of the vote with Kilicdaroglu trailing at 45%. Since Erdogan’s Justice and Improvement Social gathering (AKP) coalition retained its majority in parliament, Erdogan made it clear a Kilicdaroglu victory would solely result in political paralysis. Within the run-off on Could 28, Erdogan maintained his lead, acquiring 52.2% of the vote.
Though Erdogan controls 90% of the print and audio-visual media, leaving the Opposition to depend on social media, Kilicdaroglu was in a position to push Erdogan to a second spherical for the primary time in 20 years. His votes got here from city areas, the developed coastal areas within the south and the west, and the Kurdish areas within the east. His open acknowledgement that he’s an Alevi and preventing on a liberal platform didn’t make a dent within the rural majority Sunni heartland that remained Erdogan’s stronghold. The result’s a polarised nation with deep divides, on problems with western affect and conventional tradition, faith and secularism, values and id, manifest in rising nationalism.
Erdogan’s nimble international coverage in recent times helped him set up a picture as a nationalist. At the same time as he expanded Turkey’s affect in areas as soon as a part of the Ottoman empire, he balanced issues along with his North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO) allies and its conventional rivals like Russia and Iran, whereas searching for pole place within the Islamic world. It required brinkmanship, however that appeals to the nationalist sentiment that cuts throughout the political spectrum.
Erdogan is nearer to China and utilized to affix the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), but additionally criticised Beijing’s therapy of Uighurs; is a member of NATO however purchased the Russian S-400 missile defence system; seeks to enhance ties with Russia however opposes it within the conflicts in Libya and Armenia-Azerbaijan; created an Organisation of Turkic States reflecting shades of neo-Ottomanism; maintains shut ties with Qatar and after a downturn in ties with Saudi Arabia on the Adnan Khashoggi homicide, and efficiently restored ties with the Arab world.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia bailed him out by offering $5 billion every to the central financial institution, and Russia postponed a gasoline fee of $600 million to 2024. and agreed to fund a $10 billion Akkuyu nuclear energy plant.
Now that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has crushed again resistance and is there to remain, Erdogan’s main diplomatic process is to reconcile with him. Nevertheless, his actual problem is to stabilise an financial system rocked by his upside-down insurance policies. To sort out inflation, he has been reducing rates of interest and pumping in {dollars}, however foreign exchange reserves are trending into unfavorable territory. He seems assured of western assist as he managed to dealer the Black Sea grain export deal between Ukraine and Russia, and curbed the circulation of refugees into Europe.
Traditionally, relations with India have been low-key, with Turkey sympathetic to Pakistan on Kashmir, and countering UN Safety Council growth within the everlasting class by proposing an growth solely of the non-permanent class. Regardless of the non-public relationship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Erdogan, borne out of shared experiences of their battle to get to the highest, their recourse to nationalism and invoking a grand previous, a deep religiosity and distinctive communication abilities, given every chief’s present challenges, the bilateral relationship is prone to stay low-key.
Rakesh Sood is a former ambassador. The views expressed are private.
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