Opposition’s first steps for 2024

The contours of the nationwide Opposition technique will slowly turn into clearer over the following few months. However there are three principal hurdles on the best way. The primary has little to do with plans of Opposition unity, and extra to do with the BJP’s enduring energy on the voting cubicles. In 2019, the BJP gained 224 seats with a vote share share higher than 50%. In 2014, this quantity was 136. Solely in 48 constituencies was the mixed vote share of the quantity two- and three-ranked candidates larger than the BJP nominee. Which means that mere arithmetic won’t work, and the Opposition might want to discover a method to wean massive numbers of individuals away from the BJP. That is precisely what the Congress did in Karnataka, the place total communities moved away from the BJP after a era, however replicating this on the nationwide degree – particularly within the northern states which can be the BJP’s stronghold – can be far tougher.

The second hurdle is ideological. To dent the BJP within the 224 seats the place it comprehensively gained will want a powerful narrative that’s each ideologically coherent, pragmatic and fashionable. The Opposition’s expertise with Uttar Pradesh (UP) in 2019 – when the 2 Mandal giants, the Samajwadi Occasion (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Occasion (BSP) got here collectively in an unprecedented alliance, solely to be undone by grassroots contradictions of their core demographic bases – can be instructive. Till now, Opposition events have tinkered with their messaging round welfare, caste census, upliftment of marginalised communities, allegations of democratic backsliding, and financial misery, however are but to zero in on a profitable narrative. This can be pivotal. The third hurdle is political, and straight tied to the geographical unfold of regional and nationwide events. At the very least 124 of the BJP’s 303 seats in 2019 got here from states the place Opposition events are sometimes in contest with one another, and the place Opposition unity can be troublesome to realize. Take, for instance, West Bengal, the place the Trinamool Congress is in contest not solely with the BJP but additionally the Congress and the Left. Or UP, the place 4 main events – the BJP, SP, BSP and Congress – are within the fray. It’s in these areas that inner contradictions within the Opposition camp (how do the Aam Aadmi Occasion and the Congress come collectively whereas combating for management over Delhi and Punjab, or how do the Left and the Congress handle an association nationally whereas being the principal contenders for energy in Kerala?) will should be deftly managed. And eventually, whereas Opposition unity can have its advantages and disadvantages, it might find yourself that means little if there isn’t any change within the political fortunes in 160-odd seats the place the BJP and the Congress have been in direct contest and the place the previous trounced the latter comprehensively. Except the Congress can put up a stronger combat, the BJP could have the sting going into 2024. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will inform us whether or not it stays the case this winter.