Thailand’s Policy on Myanmar Stinks

By Thitinan Pongsudhirak 24 June 2023

The most recent transfer to coddle and acknowledge Myanmar’s junta authorities by caretaker Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s outgoing regime doesn’t add up. Sanctioned and supported by Gen. Prayut, Overseas Minister Don Pramudwinai organized an ASEAN-wide ministerial assembly in Pattaya on June 18 with Myanmar’s junta-appointed Overseas Minister Than Swe with uncommon haste. Shrouded in controversy and desperation, each the PM’s and the FM’s clichéd explanations simply don’t wash. It begs the query of whether or not there are vested pursuits concerned, above and past Thailand’s nationwide curiosity, within the outgoing authorities’s seeming acceptance of Myanmar’s army regime, which took energy by power on Feb 1, 2021.

With full data that he’ll quickly should vacate his workplace too, as a result of Gen. Prayut’s military-aligned United Thai Nation Get together misplaced the Might 14 election, Don had zero mandate however nonetheless went forward by sending out invites on June 14, simply 4 days earlier than convening the high-level gathering. When he controversially sponsored comparable conferences within the latest previous, no less than they transpired earlier than a Thai ballot. As well as, Don and his adviser and particular envoy on Myanmar, Pornpimol Kanchanalak, have gone out of their solution to organize a collection of “Observe 1.5” think-tank conferences to incorporate Myanmar. The clear purpose has been criticized as lending legitimacy and recognition to the State Administration Council (SAC), Myanmar’s junta authorities. The rationalization is purportedly to take care of Thailand’s nationwide curiosity.

Each Gen. Prayut and Don spouted the same old listing of bilateral imperatives between Thailand and Myanmar. These embrace the truth that Thailand shares a border of over 2,400 km with Myanmar and subsequently has to interact with its next-door neighbor on frequent points from the trafficking of labor, illicit medication and arms to prison name facilities which have lured individuals from throughout Southeast Asia and past to rip-off cash out of others. On the identical time, Thailand’s company stakes of greater than US$11 billion with 154 tasks have been circulated within the media, rating third with 12.5 % of total overseas funding in Myanmar.

It was additionally reported that additional US and different Western sanctions in opposition to the SAC—the Myanmar Overseas Commerce Financial institution and Myanmar Funding and Business Financial institution on this case—required the Thai authorities to behave. But these justifications and excuses simply don’t make sense total.

Certainly, Singapore is the most important overseas investor in Myanmar, with greater than twice at stake than Thailand, whereas China ranks second. But the Singaporean authorities has taken the principled place of following ASEAN’s 5-Level Consensus from April 2021, calling for the cessation of violence, an inclusive dialogue, humanitarian help, a particular envoy and a delegation go to to discover a method ahead.

True, Thailand has important bilateral points with Myanmar in view of labor migration, medication and arms trafficking, transnational crimes, and even air pollution from agricultural burning. However these points are as problematic as ever, even worsening. What Don and Pornpimol have been doing in favor of the SAC has but to yield outcomes for Thailand.

Quite the opposite, the pair, beneath Gen. Prayut’s watch, have affected Thailand’s worldwide standing, undermined ASEAN’s central regional function and sabotaged Indonesia’s place as the present ASEAN chair. Thailand’s questionable coverage has made enemies with the overwhelming majority of Myanmar’s inhabitants, who’ve risen up in opposition to the SAC, underpinned by a raging civil struggle during which the army shouldn’t be profitable and is unable to consolidate its grip on energy. With out heavy struggle weapons, together with armor and air strikes, the Myanmar army could find yourself dropping.

By driving roughshod over ASEAN and Indonesia as chair, Don has impaired ASEAN’s repute within the worldwide group. He has additionally additional sowed divisions amongst ASEAN member states. Since Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN has broadly break up into two camps pitting Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore on one facet with a requirement for the restoration of democratic rule versus the others. It comes as no shock that the autocratic ASEAN members from Brunei and Cambodia to Laos and Vietnam are sympathetic to the SAC and silent on its atrocities in opposition to the Myanmar individuals. These ASEAN members have been taking part in Don’s conferences, whereas the opposite 4 have opted out repeatedly.

The odd man out is Thailand beneath Gen. Prayut’s overseas coverage with Myanmar’s SAC. Unsurprisingly, the democratically elected Transfer Ahead Get together and its chief Pita Limjaroenrat have come out to oppose Don’s newest gambit, emphasizing ASEAN centrality and the 5-Level Consensus. All worldwide stakeholders ought to know that the Prayut-led authorities’s place on Myanmar doesn’t symbolize the collective view of nearly all of Thai individuals.

To make sure, Thailand wants to interact with the SAC, nevertheless it wants to take action along with different events, notably different stakeholders, together with the opposing Nationwide Unity Authorities, within the Myanmar civil struggle within the spirit of the ASEAN 5-Level Consensus. As a neighbor of Myanmar, Thailand ought to play a carefully supportive function to the ASEAN chair to advertise alignment amongst opposition teams and to nudge the SAC in the direction of dialogue through the use of recognition and official engagement as leverage. The SAC has up to now proved intransigent and unilateral. Additional lodging will solely end result within the SAC changing into much more emboldened and self-righteous. The disparate resistance coalition additionally wants to shut ranks and show that they’ve the unity and wherewithal to control and maintain the nation intact.

The overseas minister insisted that he has to behave regardless of being an outgoing caretaker as a result of Thailand’s nationwide curiosity “can not wait” for the brand new authorities. What can not wait is a matter of debate. As Don and Pornpimol are senior authorities officers, they’re topic to questions of integrity and intent. As Pornpimol is called a profession—and convicted—lobbyist in a US courtroom of regulation, the general public certainly has a proper to ask and know whether or not non-public pursuits are at stake right here. It is a matter that ought to be formally investigated by the incoming authorities with a democratic mandate.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, PhD, is professor on the College of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Safety and Worldwide Research at Chulalongkorn College.

This text first appeared in The Bangkok Put up.