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When Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to overthrow the Russian authorities together with his mercenary firm, the Wagner Group, Western observers gleefully described the near-coup as proof of President Vladimir Putin’s weak spot. However a extra cautious consideration suggests self-congratulation could also be much less warranted than fear. Russia’s political weaknesses are extreme however exacerbated by three options broadly shared by massive, industrialized nations, together with the USA and China: 1) a weakening state, 2) the privatization of violence, and three) the rising energy of non-state teams and identities. These options pose troublesome however manageable challenges throughout peacetime and comparatively small-scale fight operations. Nonetheless, the identical options may show flamable below the pressures of a serious battle. The potential for an armed revolt of some kind can not be considered unthinkable.
This report is a part of the RAND Company Exterior publication sequence. Many RAND research are printed in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in industrial books, or as paperwork printed by different organizations.
The RAND Company is a nonprofit establishment that helps enhance coverage and decisionmaking via analysis and evaluation. RAND’s publications don’t essentially mirror the opinions of its analysis purchasers and sponsors.
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