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On September 19, Kazakhstan’s Normal Prosecutor’s Workplace introduced that Samat Abish, as soon as a deputy within the safety companies and the nephew of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, was beneath investigation for “abuse of energy” in the course of the January 2022 unrest. The announcement burdened that the “investigation includes the research of a big quantity of secret documentation,” which doesn’t bode effectively for transparency.
The announcement nonetheless marks one other twist within the convoluted path towards fact and justice concerning what occurred in January 2022.
The occasions of January 2022, extensively referred to as Qandy Qantar, or Bloody January, left not less than 238 folks useless. What started as protests in western Kazakhstan on January 2, 2022 over gas worth will increase unfold throughout the nation and grew in scope. The largely peaceable demonstrations took a violent flip after January 4 when police in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest metropolis, started to forceful disburse crowds with tear fuel and stun grenades.
On January 5, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asserted himself. He introduced that he had changed Nazarbayev as head of the Safety Council , after which dismissed Karim Massimov, head of the Nationwide Safety Committee (KNB) and an in depth ally of Nazarbayev. As well as, with out naming him instantly, Abish, a deputy beneath Massimov, was changed, too.
That very same day Tokayev appealed to the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) for help, portray the spiraling unrest as instigated by overseas forces with a view to justify an intervention, regardless of the rising narrative of the violence as rooted in an opaque elite wrestle for energy. The subsequent day, Massimov was arrested on treason prices.
Within the nearly two years since, Abish has remained within the shadows of assorted investigations, typically known as a “particular person of curiosity” however not, till now, a suspect. Whilst Massimov, and his different deputies, have been discovered responsible and handed lengthy jail sentences in April of this yr, Abish remained untouched. So far, no member of the huge Nazarvbayev household community has confronted prices instantly linked to the January unrest. Some, such because the husbands of Nazarbayev’s daughters, have resigned from comfortable posts. Qairat Satybaldy, Abish’s brother, was sentenced in October 2022 to 6 years on embezzlement prices. However the investigation in opposition to Abish marks a possible turning level.
The precipitating occasion for the announcement of the investigation into Abish might have been feedback made by Ruslan Iskakov, one among Abish’s former KNB subordinates, in a preliminary listening to of a trial that simply started in Almaty focusing on a wide-ranging group of 42 folks for his or her alleged involvement n the January violence. The trial includes figures like Arman Dzhumageldiyev, described typically within the media as a criminal offense boss with the nickname “Wild Arman.” Throughout a September 18 listening to, nevertheless, Iskakov took high billing. He touched off a flurry of consideration after saying, “They’re making an attempt to cease me from saying that I carried out Abish’s orders.”
The subsequent day, the investigation into Abish was introduced.
On September 21, as RFE/RL reported, Iskakov’s trial was moved behind closed doorways.
Within the aftermath of the January 2022 occasions, the silence from Nazarbayev was deafening. He spoke up two weeks after the mud had settled, on January 18, with a video handle (posted to the now defunct Elbasy web site, accessible due to the Wayback Machine right here). In his assertion, Nazarbayev expressed his condolences and issued an endorsement of Tokayev: “President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has full energy. He’s the chairman of the Safety Council. Quickly the president shall be elected chairman of the Nur Otan get together. Due to this fact, there isn’t any battle or confrontation within the elite. Rumors on this matter are completely groundless.”
It was a curious assertion then, and an much more telling one now. Maybe there was “no battle or confrontation within the elite” as a result of Tokayev had clearly come out on high, and the battle was over.
Tokayev pushed Nazarbayev out of the Safety Council amid the early days of the unrest. It was a transfer for which there was no technically authorized foundation. Underneath the legal guidelines of the time, Nazarbayev was entitled — as Elbasy — to a lifetime submit heading the council. (That regulation was scrapped in January 2023.) And whereas Nazarbayev had stepped down from heading the ruling get together, then named Nur Otan, in December 2021 and on January 28 Tokayev turned its head, Tokayev first renamed the get together after which stepped down.
Since, except for likening Massimov to Judas (and by default casting himself within the metaphor as Jesus) when requested about his former ally whereas voting in November 2022, Nazarbayev has stayed out of the highlight, as have a lot of his household. At the very least one professional interviewed by Eurasianet recommended some sort of settlement between Tokayev and the Nazarbayevs.
The announcement of the investigation into Abish said that he was positioned inside Kazakhstan and was barred from leaving the nation, however not everybody believes that. One activist, Bakytzhan Toregozhina, informed RFE/RL, “So far as we all know he’s within the United Arab Emirates, not in Kazakhstan. If that’s the case, then [the prosecutor-general] will look ridiculous.”
The Abish case, provided that it’s more likely to be hidden behind closed doorways, shall be troublesome to comply with. However its end result is vital for what it may possibly inform us about what really occurred in January 2022.
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