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There’s an outdated, unwritten regulation in South Korea’s political circles: At any time when a president approaches the tip of their time period or returns to civilian life, they virtually at all times face an ignominious finish. Some have even labeled this seemingly inevitable downfall a curse.
Curse or not, the phenomenon is instantly observable in South Korean historical past.
Syngman Rhee, the nation’s first president, was compelled to step down in 1960 after pupil protesters revolted in opposition to his authoritarian rule. Escaping judicial scrutiny, Rhee fled into exile in Hawai’i the place he later handed away.
Park Chung-hee, who ascended to energy by way of a army coup in 1961, was brutally assassinated by his confidante Kim Jae-kyu in 1979. By then, Park had maintained his iron grip on energy for 18 years.
The vacuum Park’s assassination left was crammed by two military veterans, Chun Doo-hwan (in elected workplace from 1980-1987) and later Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993). After leaving workplace, the 2 had been indicted for, amongst different issues, masterminding a coup and treason. Chun was sentenced to life in jail and Noh to 17 years imprisonment. They had been launched solely after being pardoned by the identical president, Kim Younger-sam, who investigated them and directed their arrests.
This pattern continued into the 2000s. Roh Moo-hyun (in workplace 2003-2008), a civil rights lawyer who rose to prominence by way of a grass-roots political motion, died by suicide in 2009 whereas being investigated on bribery fees post-presidency.
Lee Myung-bak (in workplace 2008-2013), who succeeded Roh, was arrested after leaving the Blue Home for commissioning crimes of embezzlement and tax evasion.
In 2017, Park Chung-hee’s eldest daughter, Park Geun-hye, turned the primary sitting chief to be impeached in South Korea. Park (in workplace 2013-2017) was later sentenced to 24 years in jail (afterward bumped as much as 25 years) for bribery and abuse of energy.
Each Lee and Park spent almost 5 years behind bars earlier than being pardoned.
The “curse,” nonetheless, seems to be nearing its expiration as former President Moon Jae-in (in workplace 2017-2022) has prevented the misfortunes of his predecessors – a minimum of for now. Moon accomplished his five-year time period final Might and has since returned to his dwelling base of Yangsan, South Gyeongsang province. He now runs a small unbiased bookstore and stays largely out of the general public eye.
With Moon’s uneventful departure from excessive workplace, has the “curse” that has plagued South Korean leaders for therefore lengthy been lifted? Sadly, it’s too early to inform.
Whereas the present Yoon Suk-yeol administration has proven little curiosity in investigating Moon, it’s totally dedicated to arresting Lee Jae-myung, Moon’s closest confidant and political inheritor. Whereas an arrest warrant for for Lee tied to corruption and abuse of energy fees was just lately denied by a South Korean courtroom, the Yoon administration stays adamant about pursuing the high-handed investigation. And there’s a clear cause for this.
Yoon first climbed to prominence by spearheading the investigations in opposition to Lee Myung-bak and Moon’s predecessor, Park Geun-hye. Yoon, who turned a prosecutor normal beneath the auspices of the liberal Moon regime, ran for and gained the presidency from the then-opposition conservative Individuals Energy Social gathering (PPP). He did so by confronting Moon’s bid to weaken the prosecutorial authorities mid-way by way of his time period. The stress reached a boiling level when Yoon efficiently prosecuted Cho Kuk, a detailed ally of Moon’s and former minister of justice beneath the Moon administration.
For Moon, Yoon may need been a traitor, however by turning in opposition to Moon whereas heading the prosecutors’ workplace, Yoon turned an in a single day celeb among the many conservative crowd. The prospect that Yoon would equally indict Moon and his allies if elected president was a part of the explanation right-wingers rooted for a political outsider with no former ties to the conservative social gathering. In that sense, Yoon owes an incredible debt to his constituents, which he has but to repay.
Put in another way, it additionally implies that Yoon’s political base is as fragile as his allegiance to the social gathering. And this fragility is starting to present itself in actual life. Yoon’s approval score has plunged since he took workplace in Might 2022 and now hovers across the mid-30 % vary at greatest. Including to the woes, the PPP, headed by Yoon, just lately suffered a significant defeat in an important by-election within the Gangseo District of South Korea’s capital metropolis, Seoul.
With two and a half years nonetheless left in his time period, there are already studies suggesting Yoon could expertise an early-onset lame-duck presidency. The latest rumors that Yoon could also be forming a brand new political social gathering are, due to this fact, not fully unfounded.
Traditionally, South Korean leaders have utilized anti-Japan nationalist sentiments to resuscitate their approval scores and divert voters’ consideration from home failures. Moon Jae-in deployed this technique whereas in workplace, for instance, nosediving Japan-South Korea ties to their lowest level in a long time. However for Yoon, who’s deeply dedicated to reinvigorating bilateral ties vis-à-vis Tokyo, this isn’t a viable choice.
Likewise, Yoon’s makes an attempt to mobilize his conservative base by way of the latest ideological conflict, primarily by ginning up opposition to communism, have largely been fruitless. What little enhance it introduced him appears to be carrying off.
Yoon’s beleaguered PPP is dealing with a important normal election subsequent April. If the social gathering fails to safe sufficient seats, and the opposition Democratic Social gathering retains its majority, that would completely fracture an already polarized conservative base. And if push involves shove, Yoon and his circle could all of the extra search to crack down on the conservative’s archnemesis: Moon Jae-in.
However the tit-for-tat fashion of demonizing and prosecuting one’s political opponents has largely run its course in South Korea. Pursuing Moon – whose presidency acquired a 45 % approval fee, increased than Yoon’s present numbers – might backfire by ginning up sympathy for the opposition.
Whether or not Yoon can lastly break the age-old curse comes right down to his political will and braveness. First, Yoon must persuade his constituents. Then he must refocus on speaking with and enhancing the livelihood of the folks, as he promised in a latest closed-door assembly. It is a tall order, and it’s not but clear whether or not Yoon, who made a profession as a prosecutorial technocrat, is as much as the duty. However, this can be the one recourse for him to dodge an early lame-duck standing and reinstate himself as a real unifying chief, which he aspired to since his inauguration.
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