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Preventing erupted between the Myanmar navy and ethnic Rakhine Arakan Military (AA) on November 13, ending a yearlong ceasefire. The newest bout of preventing is the third since late 2018.
After two years of battle, the 2 sides agreed to a truce forward of the final election in November 2020. Clashes then broke out once more, earlier than an off-the-cuff ceasefire was referred to as on humanitarian grounds amid meals shortages in November final yr.
Final yr’s preventing broke out because the junta sought to stop the AA from consolidating administrative management throughout Rakhine. The ethnic armed group had taken benefit of the truce to put in its personal administration and courts throughout rural Rakhine because the regime was busy battling the resistance elsewhere. Nevertheless, that bout of clashes solely lasted for just a few months.
In distinction, the recent preventing is a part of a deliberate and increasing offensive by the AA.
The armed group publicly declared in October final yr that it was preventing alongside the Kachin Independence Military (KIA), throughout the nation in Kachin State, northern Myanmar. It additionally declared that its 10 battalions have joined Operation 1027, the anti-regime offensive launched in northern Shan State by the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance additionally comprising the Myanmar Nationwide Democratic Alliance Military (MNDAA) and Ta’ang Nationwide Liberation Military (TNLA).
The junta’s navy, which as soon as threatened to crush the AA, didn’t point out its involvement in Operation 1027 – an indication that it doesn’t need to combat on a brand new entrance.
The AA launched its Rakhine offensive sooner or later after the Brotherhood Alliance seized the strategically necessary city of Kunlong in Shan State on November 12.
However not like earlier preventing in Rakhine, the AA’s ongoing offensive is a part of the broader Operation 1027 additionally being waged by the KIA and Folks’s Protection Forces, the armed wing of the civilian Nationwide Unity Authorities.
Junta blockades Rakhine entrance
Whereas the Brotherhood Alliance has lower transport routes in northern Shan State, the junta has blockaded roads and waterways in coastal Rakhine State. Counting on its navy to ship meals, reinforcements and weapons to troops, the regime blocked roads between cities and villages instantly after the AA launched its offensive.
The junta has now remoted cities in Rakhine, imposing its ‘4 cuts’ technique on their civilian populations. It used the identical technique throughout preventing final yr, even limiting the supply of medicines.
This time, the navy has imposed journey restrictions not solely within the north but in addition the south of Rakhine. It has blockaded three key roads linking Rakhine State with Yangon and different elements of the nation.
Nevertheless, past the cities, Rakhine is beneath the management of the AA, which has remoted junta bases. The armed group has additionally retaken management of the highway linking the state capital Sittwe with the central city of Ann. Junta troopers, police and border guards have been pressured to desert some 40 positions, fleeing to massive bases for defense towards AA assaults. This has ceded management of territory to the AA.
The regime has deployed troops in cities and strategic hilltops because it braces for an onslaught by AA fighters. Unable to ship reinforcements and meals provides by highway, the junta has fallen again on its navy and air pressure for logistics.
The withdrawal of junta troops from susceptible positions has offered the AA with larger house to maneuver in rural areas. However the focus of junta forces makes it tougher for the AA to grab extra positions.
4 cuts and genocide
As quickly as preventing broke out in Rakhine, the regime lower off provides of meals and medicines from different elements of the nation, in addition to between cities contained in the state. Native individuals are actually dealing with shortages and value hikes.
The “4 cuts” technique was launched beneath Myanmar’s first navy dictator, Ne Win, and is designed to sever insurgents’ entry to funding, meals, intelligence, and recruits. The civilian inhabitants in Rakhine are the most recent to undergo its strangulating impact.
The preventing stays low-level in Rakhine, however the regime is already concentrating on civilians. Its troops are shelling villages in Pauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U and Kyauktaw townships whereas detaining civilians as human shields.
In 2017, the identical navy dedicated what the UN termed genocide towards the Rohingya in Rakhine. It’s now planning larger-scale ethnic cleaning towards the Rakhine individuals.
The junta can be concentrating on civilians on different fronts, together with Kachin, Shan, Karenni, Karen, Chin states and Sagaing, Magwe, Mandalay, Bago and Tanintharyi areas. Nevertheless it workout routines extra warning within the borderland of northern Shan State, the place it has been pressured to apologize and supply compensation when its shells killed individuals on Chinese language soil.
Rakhine struggling
Rakhine’s coastal location makes it simpler for the regime to implement the “4 cuts” technique with its navy. So, the state is struggling greater than different areas.
However the technique has its personal disadvantages because it depends upon connectivity amongst junta administrative organs throughout the state. The AA wants to search out methods to make the most of vulnerabilities on this chain.
On the identical time, the armed group should discover options that assist native individuals overcome the hardships inflicted by the junta’s journey restrictions.
Ko Oo is an professional in Myanmar’s ethnic affairs.
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