Poll boost for BJP weakens Congress hand

The menu of points throughout states was comparable (though the weightages might have been completely different): Welfare, management, corruption, and caste. Welfare clearly labored for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, however didn’t work for the Congress in Rajasthan — suggesting that the previous managed to sort out anti-incumbency way more efficiently than the latter. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP did it via what it termed “collective management”, by not projecting a chief ministerial candidate, a departure from the norm for the social gathering in states the place it’s the incumbent. It fielded a number of parliamentarians, together with ministers. It did the identical in Rajasthan, the place it wasn’t in energy, however this will have additionally been pushed by the will to set the stage for a generational change in management within the state (now that it has gained, the social gathering can at all times select not to do that, however it does have the choice of a generational change in all three heartland states).

Corruption might have performed a component in felling the Congress’ Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, simply as it might have the social gathering’s Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s Okay Chandrashekar Rao in Telangana (the Congress’ welfare ensures, modelled after those in Karnataka that enabled it wrest energy from the BJP in that state, might have helped too). And the jury remains to be out on whether or not the Congress’ promise of a caste survey to wrest Different Backward Lessons (OBC) votes from the BJP labored — it doesn’t appear to have — even because the BJP’s efficiency in Chhattisgarh and the tribal belt of Madhya Pradesh signifies that the nationwide political hegemon’s effort to develop its coalition by co-opting the tribal vote is starting to work.

The Congress, which has purpose to cheer the Telangana verdict – a uncommon occasion of the social gathering wresting again energy from an area rival – will likely be dissatisfied with its displaying within the three states the place it gained in 2018. It’s believed that the social gathering deferred seat-sharing discussions with different members of the INDIA bloc, in anticipation of doing effectively on this spherical of state elections and, subsequently, being in a stronger place to barter. That can’t be — not after its displaying in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, all direct contests in opposition to the BJP. Depart alone the prospects of the INDIA grouping in 2024, these outcomes forged an extended shadow on the power of its constituents to reach at any form of significant association forward of the nationwide elections. Certainly, barring Himachal Pradesh, the Congress is now a south Indian social gathering — one thing that ought to weaken its negotiating place additional. The South has sufficient robust regional events able to taking over the BJP; what was wanted was a celebration that might take it on within the heartland; these outcomes present that the Congress just isn’t it.

As for the BJP, it couldn’t have requested for a greater walk-up to 2024. Within the three states the place it has gained, the social gathering didn’t challenge a chief ministerial face. The elections have been fought beneath the banner of collective management and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The caste census, which might have fragmented its rainbow Hindu coalition, doesn’t appear to have discovered a lot traction. And, with a major variety of new faces in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, the social gathering can now impact a generational change in management in these states — whether it is of a thoughts to. The outcomes additionally present {that a} decade after its ascent to energy within the Centre, the BJP’s election machine stays environment friendly — and hungry.

There’s a fourth approach as effectively during which this spherical of meeting elections units the context for 2024, though this has extra to do with how we research elections and our potential to foretell outcomes. All 4 verdicts have been clear — when it comes to vote share and seats; none was as shut as opinion polls stated they’d be. Forward of 2024, that will warrant a relook at how opinion polls are carried out and the way election campaigns are analysed.