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The authors establish duties that the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) would probably be assigned by Chinese language leaders to attain strategic targets each in peacetime competitors with the USA and in a hypothetical low-intensity battle. The authors then analyze potential vulnerabilities within the PLA’s execution of these duties and the way the USA may leverage these vulnerabilities to disrupt China’s strategic targets, specializing in the potential for peacetime competitors to erupt right into a broader low-intensity battle that includes smaller, oblique, or hybrid confrontations that span the world.
The authors increase on a complete listing of potential PLA missions developed in prior analysis and discover vulnerabilities within the PLA’s execution of the precise duties required to attain Beijing’s strategic aims. Throughout these missions and duties, they establish 5 units of vulnerabilities that, if disrupted, may have an effect on Beijing’s potential to attain its targets: fears of home instability after PLA actions, threat of escalating battle, hurt to China’s status, the PLA’s restricted potential to assist associate states, and the PLA’s restricted potential to venture energy.
These vulnerabilities present a way of the potential strain factors that the PLA may face in engaging in its aims. Choices for the USA to leverage these strain factors embody deterring dangerous PLA actions by shaping perceptions of how these actions may have an effect on China’s pursuits, exploiting the results of PLA actions to discourage Beijing from repeating comparable actions, and exploiting PLA weaknesses in energy projection and associate assist to weaken confidence within the PLA and discourage comparable operations.
This analysis was ready for the USA Military and carried out inside RAND Arroyo Middle’s Technique, Doctrine, and Sources Program.
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