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2024 will mark the seventy fifth anniversary of the institution of diplomatic relations between China and Mongolia, the thirtieth anniversary of the revision of the China-Mongolia Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, and the tenth anniversary of President Xi Jinping’s first (and to date solely) state go to to Mongolia. Mongolia hooked up nice significance to Xi’s go to to Ulaanbaatar in 2014 and has already invited the Chinese language chief to go to Mongolia once more subsequent 12 months by numerous channels.
For instance, in late November, Chinese language Communist Social gathering (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi and Liu Jianchao, head of the Worldwide Division of the CCP Central Committee, met with a delegation led by Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve, secretary basic of the Mongolian Folks’s Social gathering, to debate this potential go to and different matters.
Though the present state of affairs of China-Russia relations has enormously weakened Ulaanbaatar’s buffering position in its two neighboring international locations’ safety insurance policies, China nonetheless regards Mongolia as a rustic of geopolitical significance. The land boundary with Mongolia is China’s longest. Subsequently, sustaining good China-Mongolia relations is taken into account a serious problem associated to the safety and stability of northern China, together with Xinjiang, Internal Mongolia, and numerous provinces in Northeast China.
Up towards Mongolia’s hopes is the truth that Xi has sharply curtailed his worldwide journey for the reason that pandemic. After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, Xi didn’t journey overseas for greater than two years. In September 2022, he resumed worldwide journey, however this 12 months he made solely 4 journeys overseas, far beneath his pre-pandemic fee.
China-Mongolia Cooperation
Deng Xiaoping by no means formally visited Mongolia, however each different high Chinese language chief since has, usually to mark key anniversaries. Early on within the normalization of bilateral relations, Chinese language President Yang Shangkun visited Ulaanbaatar to specific China’s respect for Mongolia’s independence and sovereignty in August 1991. President Jiang Zemin visited Mongolia in July 1999 on the eve of the fiftieth anniversary of the institution of diplomatic relations between two international locations.
In June 2003, Hu Jintao’s journey to Mongolia marked his first abroad go to after taking workplace as Chinese language president. And, as already famous, Xi Jinping visited Mongolia in August of 2014.
Xi beforehand visited Mongolia in June 2008, when he was vice chairman. Throughout his go to to Mongolia in that 12 months, Xi Jinping could have met with the primary leaders of Mongolia for the primary time as China’s nationwide leader-in-waiting. Former Mongolian President Elbegdorj Tsakhia instructed Time journal that in his eight years as president (2009-2017), he met with Xi about 30 occasions and had many one-on-one conversations.
Throughout Xi’s go to to Ulaanbaatar in 2014, the 2 sides confirmed the development of China-Mongolia relations. From then on, Mongolian leaders have visited China no less than twice a 12 months. Throughout Xi’s first two phrases in workplace, he met with successive Mongolian presidents, prime ministers, and leaders of varied political events on completely different events.
Over the previous 10 years, political mutual belief between China and Mongolia has been constantly enhanced, and financial and commerce exchanges have grown The variety of Chinese language vacationers and staff touring to Mongolia and Mongolian college students learning in China is growing 12 months by 12 months. Earlier than the pandemic, on the finish of 2018, the variety of personnel exchanges between the 2 international locations exceeded 2 million per 12 months, of which greater than 1.8 million Mongolian residents went to China, the biggest quantity in historical past.
Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, who visits Ulaanbaatar roughly each two years, stated in 2018 that he would try to attain the aim of bilateral commerce exceeding $10 billion as quickly as potential and personnel exchanges reaching 3 million per 12 months.
After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, then-Mongolian President Battulga Khaltmaa paid a particular go to to China in late February 2020 to specific his agency assist for China’s anti-epidemic marketing campaign. He additionally donated 30,000 sheep on behalf of the Mongolian individuals. In 2021, world vaccine provide and demand was very tight, and China offered COVID-19 vaccines to Mongolia.
Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa visited Beijing in November 2022, after the twentieth Social gathering Congress of the CCP. Either side agreed to work arduous to extend the commerce quantity between the 2 international locations to $20 billion as quickly as potential. In line with Chinese language statistics, the commerce quantity between China and Mongolia is anticipated to achieve practically $15 billion {dollars} in 2023, which is thrice greater than the commerce quantity in 2015.
Particularly, China has imported a considerable amount of mineral merchandise from Mongolia, together with coal, copper, and different sources, making vital contributions to Mongolia’s economic system and society. Mongolia may also be stated to have diminished China’s social and environmental burdens, in addition to the commercial manufacturing stress brought on by frequent coal mine accidents in coal wealthy provinces equivalent to Internal Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang in recent times.
Cooperation on ecological points is one other vital – if usually missed – aspect of relations. In September 2023, the China-Mongolia Cooperation Middle for Desertification Prevention and Management was established, and China and Mongolia have dedicated to conducting joint analysis and capability constructing actions to alleviate the affect of sand and mud disasters in Northeast Asia, particularly in Beijing. In June, Xi Jinping performed an inspection in Bayannur Metropolis, Internal Mongolia, and chaired a gathering to strengthen complete desertification management and promote key ecological engineering development. Xi’s private consideration to the difficulty suggests it might be a spotlight of China-Mongolia relations in 2024.
In October, the Chinese language Overseas Ministry launched the “Outlook on China’s Overseas Coverage on Its Neighborhood within the New Period” doc, which comprehensively elaborated on China’s diplomatic objectives in neighboring international locations. The doc emphasizes China’s dedication to communication and cooperation with neighboring international locations to keep away from long-term antagonistic penalties brought on by strategic competitors amongst main powers. Mongolia is talked about seven occasions – greater than Kazakhstan, South Korea, North Korea, and others.
Khurelsukh, the Mongolian president, visited Beijing to attend the Third Belt and Highway Discussion board this October. Whereas there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and invited him to pay a state go to to Mongolia in 2024 in the course of the celebration of the anniversary of the victory of the Battles of Khalkhin Gol (the Nomonhan Incident). If Putin accepts this invitation, the Chinese language facet will rigorously contemplate having Xi make his personal go to in an effort to improve China’s affect in Mongolia.
An analogous dynamic of refined diplomatic competitors has occurred between China and Russia in Mongolia earlier than. In 2014, lower than two weeks after Xi’s go to to Mongolia, Putin visited Mongolia and the 2 sides signed an settlement on visa-free visits. 5 years later, in 2019, after Chinese language Vice President Wang Qishan visited Mongolia, Putin and native Russian leaders visited Mongolia individually. The 2 sides signed a pleasant and complete strategic partnership treaty and improved the extent of bilateral relations.
Potential Stumbling Blocks
Mongolia’s push to have Xi go to Ulaanbaatar is off to a superb begin. Folks from China and Mongolia in any respect ranges have frequent exchanges of visits and exchanges, political mutual belief has been additional consolidated and strengthened, and financial and commerce exchanges can promote Xi Jinping’s go to to Mongolia subsequent 12 months.
Nonetheless, the connection isn’t with out points. There are numerous unfavorable components each domestically and internationally at play, which can work towards Xi’s go to to Mongolia.
For instance, of the 26 paperwork signed throughout Xi’s go to to Ulaanbaatar 10 years in the past, half weren’t efficiently promoted, and a few weren’t even carried out. Thus far, the cooperation tasks between China Shenhua Group, China Growth Financial institution, and China Nationwide Petroleum Company with Mongolia, in addition to the railway transit transportation between the 2 international locations, and the cooperation paperwork that Mongolia will use in ports equivalent to Tianjin and Jinzhou in Northeast China, haven’t acquired assist and approval from China.
Chinese language state-owned banks equivalent to Financial institution of China and Industrial and Industrial Financial institution of China are getting into the Mongolian market to offer financing for numerous tasks for enterprises. However to date, none of those consultant places of work of Chinese language state-owned banks have obtained financing enterprise licenses. Likewise, the yuan/tugrik native foreign money swap settlement between the 2 central banks has not been easily promoted previously decade and remains to be ongoing.
One other factor that’s prone to have an effect is lingering tensions over adjustments to the bilingual schooling coverage in Internal Mongolia, which sparked a backlash throughout the border. Former President Elbegdorj was notably vocal, expressing issues on social media and in a letter to China across the time of Wang Yi’s go to to Mongolia in mid September 2020. In response, Chinese language Ambassador to Mongolia Chai Wenrui refuted Elbegdorj, stating that his views within the letter had been utterly mistaken and China wouldn’t settle for them.
This bilingual schooling incident and the pandemic had been used as an excuse by then-leaders in Internal Mongolia, equivalent to Shi Taifeng, to take care of a distance from Ulaanbaatar in recent times. There was nearly no communication since then, and Mongolian items had been blocked at border ports equivalent to Erenhot. The newly appointed Mongolian Ambassador to China Tuvshin Badral has not but been acquired within the provincial capital, Hohhot, and the employees of the consulate basic of Mongolia within the metropolis have had a tough time securing conferences with native officers.
Lastly, in late September 2023, Solar Shaocheng, the brand new social gathering chief for Internal Mongolia, led a delegation to go to Mongolia to debate cooperation between the 2 sides. The official web site of the Mongolian authorities didn’t report any info on the go to of the Internal Mongolian delegation to Mongolia, together with the assembly between Solar and the Mongolian prime minister. Hohhot native media additionally reported on this go to in a low-key method.
Across the identical time, one other friction level appeared within the relationship. Internal Mongolian authorities banned “The Mongol Khan” theater manufacturing by shutting down energy, blocking 130 manufacturing employees, and placing the forged beneath fixed surveillance in mid-September. The play, directed by Hero Baatar, the half-brother of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene, was staged in London’s West Finish in mid November.
That got here after experiences that in 2020 China had tried to erase references to Mongolia and Mongol tradition from an exhibit on Chinggis Khan in Nantes, France. The exhibit was as an alternative staged by way of France-Mongolia collaboration in 2023.
One other delicate cultural problem includes the appointment of a reincarnation of the Jebtsundamba Khutughtu, the pinnacle of Tibetan Buddhism in Mongolia, which threatens to contain Mongolia deeper within the political sport between China and the Dalai Lama. For Mongolia, making what Beijing sees because the mistaken transfer will probably be pricey. China has not commented publicly on the reincarnation of tenth Jebtsundamba Khutughtu, however Mongolian officers stated Beijing had warned Ulaanbaatar that there could be critical penalties if the brand new Jebtsundamba Khutughtu received too near the Dalai Lama.
Subsequent 12 months, Mongolia will maintain parliamentary elections, which is one other issue that may make Xi Jinping unsure about visiting Ulaanbaatar. From the diplomatic actions of the 2 international locations over the previous 30 years, it may be seen that Chinese language leaders normally go to Mongolia one or two years after the mud of parliamentary elections has settled.
After the closure of the twentieth Social gathering Congress and Xi’s renewal of energy for a 3rd time period in 2022, neighboring international locations equivalent to South Korea, Mongolia, and lots of creating international locations are wanting ahead to a go to from the Chinese language president. These international locations all imagine {that a} go to from Xi will increase ties and assist stabilize economies that had been severely affected by the pandemic and the present geopolitical confrontations.
Nonetheless, since pandemic restrictions had been lifted Xi has solely graced 9 international locations together with his presence. Will Mongolia make the checklist in 2024?
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