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Of all the numerous bits and items to parse from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s latest interview with the state-run Egemen Qazaqstan newspaper, his remark in response to a query relating to a system of “twin energy” stands out as an nearly Freudian slip. Tokayev stated that in some unspecified time in the future after the January 2022 unrest he “brazenly informed Nursultan Abishuly Nazarbayev that the political conceitedness of his shut associates nearly destroyed the nation.”
Tokayev didn’t title names, naturally, and he most definitely shouldn’t be referring to himself. However “shut affiliate” can be an apt description of Tokayev, at the least earlier than January 2022. Tokayev’s complete political historical past was intertwined with Nazarbayev. His rise to energy was particularly engineered by the previous president, although not essentially a shock to shut observers.
For instance, writing in The Diplomat in October 2018 one astute observer famous that “Close to the highest of many analysts’ lists of attainable Nazarbayev successors is Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the present chairman of the Senate, second solely in energy to Nazarbayev himself.” She went on to put in writing nevertheless, that “the place Tokayev might fall quick is home policymaking. He lacks expertise in implementing Kazakh home coverage initiatives and that will name his long-term management potential into query.”
And certainly, it was the home sphere that offered Tokayev his best problem. In his latest interview, Tokayev persists within the narrative that the January 2022 occasions have been plotted and orchestrated, saying that “preparations” had begun six months earlier when the federal government made an “an ill-conceived, unlawful choice to sharply improve the value of liquefied gasoline.”
That’s one other slip of types. Tokayev turned appearing president in March 2019 when Nazarbayev stepped down, and was formally elected president in a snap vote that June. The federal government that made that “ill-conceived, unlawful choice” was his.
He additionally blamed “extremists, prison teams, and spiritual extremists” for the violence, looking for as soon as once more to externalize an issue of innately home character. On the non secular extremist angle, RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service famous in its reporting that no expenses of spiritual extremism have been introduced in opposition to anybody within the very many trials which have occurred relation to the January occasions. RFE/RL’s English-language reporting famous that “[a]facet from about 10 members of the fundamentalist Islamic group Yakyn Inkar – which is taken into account a banned extremist group in Kazakhstan – who have been arrested in reference to the protests, no non secular teams have been singled out for alleged involvement within the protests.”
The aim of the plot was to ascertain the very “twin energy” system that many analysts have argued existed since March 2019. Right here we return to the highest, and Tokayev’s comment relating to what he informed Nazarbayev.
“In any case,” he continued instantly after criticizing the political machinations of Nazarbayev’s associates, “I imagine that there must be no senior or junior president within the nation.”
“Go away – don’t beg!“
We will guess who that exclamation is aimed toward, from the context each on the digital web page and the political milieu of the second. Nazarbayev has been again within the information in latest months, from salacious reporting on his autobiography, wherein he admits brazenly to being a polygamist, to a December 30 assembly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which stirred up dialogue of whether or not the previous president was plotting a comeback. In his latest interview, Tokayev stated the time was not proper for his personal memoir.
The January 3 interview conveniently presents Tokayev’s most popular narratives relating to the January 2022 unrest – in addition to different issues, such because the misguided assertion that there aren’t any political prisoners in Kazakhstan (a remark and matter deserving of its personal separate evaluation) – however the timing additionally works to counter the resurgence of chatter about Nazarbayev.
As a lot as Tokayev tries, he might by no means come out from his predecessor’s lengthy shadow.
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