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(JTA) — After I reached Nimrod Novik in Raanana, Israel and requested how he was feeling, he was blunt.
“Unhealthy,” mentioned Novik, 77, who was a senior coverage adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres. “I’d say that I don’t bear in mind such a decisive second. We’re at a fork within the street, which might take us to untold troubles or doubtlessly promise a brand new horizon. I’m afraid that we’re going to slip within the mistaken path and pay the value for it earlier than we get up to it.”
So Novik is not any Pollyanna. However with warfare raging in Gaza, he’s trying past the preventing for a pathway towards a diplomatic resolution that would result in two states, Israeli and Palestinian. It’s a decades-old imaginative and prescient that multiple politician, together with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has referred to as useless on arrival.
In 2021, as a member of the manager committee of Commanders for Israel’s Safety, Novik was a part of a workforce of former safety chiefs, army brass and high authorities advisers who wrote a protection of the two-state resolution referred to as “Initiative 2025.” The doc mentioned that though such an answer appeared past the horizon, it remained the one means to make sure Israel’s safety and future as a robust Jewish democracy.
Novik is sticking to these conclusions regardless of an Israeli authorities that’s against Palestinian statehood, and polling exhibiting that simply 35% of Israeli Jews help a two-state resolution. The Biden administration can also be urgent for an eventual two-state consequence, in a plan that would doubtlessly embrace normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
In our dialog, I wished to know: Given the mistrust, the bloodshed, the present temper of Israelis, the far-right insurance policies of their authorities and the previous failures of negotiations towards two states, how does any politician construct a coalition and public help for something lower than an iron fist in Gaza and a tighter grip on the West Financial institution?
Novik, a fellow on the Israel Coverage Discussion board, answered by describing the self-interests of Israel and its Arab neighbors, the frustrations of common Palestinians, a brand new function for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the grim alternate options for Israel if the 2 sides within the battle are unable to separate.
Our dialog was edited for size and readability.
Novik, a fellow on the Israel Coverage Discussion board, was a part of a workforce of former safety chiefs, army brass and high authorities advisers who wrote a protection of the two-state resolution referred to as “Initiative 2025.” (Israel Coverage Discussion board)
I used to be keen to speak to you as a result of there’s a camp, which incorporates the Biden administration, that wishes — in the end — a two-state resolution to come back out of this warfare. With all of the destruction and anger and bloodshed we’re seeing, isn’t it loopy for anybody to be urgent for 2 states, within the quick or long run?
It’s not loopy in any respect. Since Oct. 7, the attention that the previous premises had been all mistaken is widespread. I believe one can find a broad consensus within the nation that counting on Hamas for 15 years to supply peace and quiet for Israel by feeding the beast piecemeal, and giving concession after concession, and permitting it more cash from Qatar — that technique failed.
I consider the time period in Israel for that was “mowing the grass” – army strikes in Gaza each few years to quash Hamas missile assaults. Within the interim, Hamas would preserve the peace and Qatar would funnel the cash. You’re saying that any two-state resolution first wants to handle who’s going to control Gaza.
Proper. I belong to Commanders for Israel Safety, which is as we speak one thing like 550 former heads of all the safety businesses and the diplomatic corps. And our steered plan, described in [the 2019 document] an “Various Israeli Technique in Gaza,” is now mainly the Biden technique. Principally, we had been working with the Egyptians to herald the Saudis and Emiratis to make Qatar much less dominant in controlling the lifeline of Hamas, in order that the cash goes to the inhabitants, to not the group.
Second, the Hamas management, which is similar as we speak, had a vivid reminiscence of the Arab Spring, and feared going through the same rebellion in Gaza. They’d demonstrated that they had been unable to ship for the individuals, had not mastered the artwork of governance and have become corrupt. They had been critically involved that they are going to lose the one territorial entity managed by Muslim Brotherhood [the Islamist movement of which Hamas is an offshoot] anyplace on this planet, which is so invaluable to those that maintain that ideology.
The Egyptians had been astonished that they had been keen to cooperate with a method whereby Hamas withdraws from governing the road and invitations the Palestinian Authority to man the ministries of presidency and run the place. There was a complete roadmap for the gradual steps that may result in the Palestinian Authority’s restored administration of Gaza. We developed it collectively with the Egyptians and we had been involved with Saudis, Iraqis and even with the Trump administration in Washington. [Trump aide] Jared Kushner and [U.S. special envoy] Jason Greenblatt went to Cairo for a presentation of the plan and Greenblatt made a public announcement that it’s time for the Palestinian Authority to come back again.
What did the Israeli authorities consider the plan?
Benjamin Netanyahu had given a inexperienced gentle to the dialogue however had a change of coronary heart and was sabotaging the plan. And the plan was simply discarded and have become a footnote to historical past. But it surely’s the very same plan that’s now being constructed by the administration in Washington, solely underneath, on the one hand, extra favorable circumstances, and, on the opposite, extra sophisticated.
What are the favorable circumstances?
There’s a very highly effective Arab coalition that’s extra keen to interact on this endeavor. The Arab coalition is keen to interact in Gaza rehabilitation and function the crutches whereas the Palestinian Authority is in such a depressing state, and assist the P.A. progressively come again and run the Gaza Strip, fund the rehabilitation and reconstruction and even put boots on the bottom to interchange the IDF till the Palestinian Authority can prepare and equip new items.
Why are they extra amenable to that now?
They too had been woke up to a mistaken premise: that one will pay lip service to the Israeli-Palestinian battle and reside fortunately ever after. Oct. 7 demonstrated to them that their strategic pursuits, safety, and inside stability are affected by violence within the Israeli-Palestinian area. So Saudi Arabia, which was once fairly passive, at the moment are keen to interact in diplomacy, managing Gaza and revitalizing the Palestinian Authority. They had been all so uninterested in the P.A. till Oct. 6. Now they understand that being drained isn’t an motion plan.
One other fable was which you could leapfrog over the Palestinians into the arms of the Arabs across the area like within the Abraham Accords.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, proper, meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Jerusalem, Jan. 9. 2024. (Kobi Gideon/Authorities Press Workplace)
The Abraham Accords had been the historic normalization agreements between Israel and several other of its Arab neighbors brokered beginning in 2020. What’s the Arab states’ curiosity now in supporting P.A. management in Gaza in addition to the West Financial institution, in the event that they weren’t actively urgent for it earlier than?
They understand that they should see a change on the bottom, each due to the injury brought on by these 4 months of warfare to their pursuits and since they don’t need to be in a scenario the place they have interaction in Gaza rehabilitation and West Financial institution growth and all of that goes up in flames within the subsequent warfare between us and Hamas, or one is triggered by our lunatics on the Temple Mount or by extremists on their facet within the West Financial institution. So that they need to see a peace technique of kinds, and a extra credible one. And even when the authority given to the P.A. is simply symbolic, it’s going to give legitimacy to no matter third celebration walks into the West Financial institution to start out working there.
And there’s a new mantra now within the area. Individuals don’t speak concerning the Palestinian Authority anymore. We speak concerning the RPA, the “revitalized Palestinian Authority,” and that’s copyright President Biden.
And there’s a second mantra, and it’s lengthy: the whole Gaza and West Financial institution course of is to be performed on the premise of a “concrete, time-bound, irreversible path to a Palestinian state.” So you’ve your qualifiers — concrete, irreversible, timebound, path — every certainly one of which was given numerous thought.
Up to now we’re speaking about what Arab states and maybe Washington desires for the long run. However what about Israelis? Netanyahu is adamant that Israel doesn’t need a two-state future and within the case of the settlements is actively working towards it.
The unthinkable brutality on Oct. 7 didn’t produce an urge for it, however keep tuned. In all research that I’ve seen, Israelis are saying — which is maybe shocking — that drive alone is not going to give us stability. So as not to surrender safety we want a mix of power and diplomacy. In Israel, the time period “political preparations” is the brand new substitute for “peace settlement,” which misplaced all legitimacy for now. Individuals want to see a mix of diplomacy and power which supplies an alternate management rather a lot to work with, ought to they want to.
Is that various management on the horizon? As a result of after occasions like these, you’ll suppose individuals would get extra frightened, extra right-wing, much less open to, you understand, political preparations.
It’s too early to attract definitive conclusions however what we noticed over the past 4 months isn’t essentially the way it actually will evolve. After I take a look at the final 4 months, we’re in section three of the collapse of public help for the present management. Section one was the 9 months previous Oct. 7 when 65 % of the general public opposed the federal government’s [judicial overhaul] initiative. Section two was clearly Oct.7. itself, when the commonest characterization was “abandonment” — abandonment by the military, and abandonment by the federal government. And the third section was post-Oct. 7, when the federal government was lacking in motion, and it fell on civil society to take care of the wants of these affected, together with the relations of those that had been kidnapped or killed or those that had been evacuated from the south and from the north.
The seen results of these three phases is the collapse of the present coalition within the polls. The present coalition mustered a 64-seat majority within the [120-seat] Knesset. Now it’s about 44-45 [in polls], whereas the opposition is means over 70. I’m not suggesting that if elections had been held tomorrow these would have been the outcomes, however I believe that the present coalition is completed.
And the actual fact is that essentially the most excessive proper has not gained a single vote since Oct. 7, with all of the anger and worry and regardless of an unprecedented rise in hate for Arabs, Palestinians and Israeli-citizen Arabs.
I’m pondering of the American Jew who felt the two-state resolution was inevitable however now feels hear, when you danger turning any of those territories over to Palestinian management, you’re simply inviting one other Oct. 7. Why would separation make Israel safer over the choice, which is army domination over each territories?
I believe it’s going to take time, however what I believe is the true message of Oct. 7 is that anger isn’t an excellent advisor. Oct. 7 demonstrated the value of “managing the battle.” If we don’t change course, if we finish with a chronic occupation of Gaza, we’re going to see a Gaza-like scenario within the West Financial institution. The moderates will lose residual floor to extremists.
It’s no accident that 10 years in the past, the P.A. was extremely popular and Hamas was completely unpopular on the West Financial institution. And as we speak it’s the reverse, significantly among the many youthful technology. Why? As a result of 10 years in the past it regarded as if the Palestinian Authority could be the automobile for independence, and as an alternative the P.A. became a subcontractor of Israeli occupation and misplaced all credibility with its personal constituency. And all of a sudden the one one they see doing one thing towards the occupation is Hamas, so that they turned extremely popular.
So now the IDF goes to reoccupy, and we’re going to run the lives of three million individuals within the West Financial institution, over 2 million individuals in Gaza, with no exit technique? Now, are these individuals prone to roll over and play useless? Or are they going to withstand the occupation by the one means out there, absent the peace course of, which is violence?
Will the Arab nations that signed peace offers with us give you the chance to withstand public stress to stroll away, be it Jordan, be it Egypt, be it the [signers of the] Abraham Accords?
Blinken meets with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, West Financial institution, Jan. 10, 2024. (Official State Division picture by Chuck Kennedy)
What’s the various?
On the opposite finish of the spectrum, we’re invited to be built-in right into a regional safety construction vis a vis Iran together with all these nations which are keen to come back in and assistance on Gaza or a peace course of with the Palestinians, nonetheless lengthy it’d take, and be a part of forces with us to examine Iran’s meddling within the area immediately and by way of its many proxies.
That’s why I say we at the moment are at a crossroads. Sure details haven’t modified since Oct. 7, and one is that between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River there are 7 million Jews and seven million Arabs. Both we separate or we lose our id, or we give them equal rights and we’re now not Jewish [as a state].
Or we deprive them of equal rights and turn into non-democratic. However they won’t eternally comply with reside disadvantaged of rights. They may combat and we’ll bleed, till we bleed one another into separation.
So in my judgment, separation is inevitable.
Your colleague on the Israel Coverage Discussion board, Michael Koplow, has written that if the US and the Europeans acknowledge a Palestinian state with out first understanding the main points it “will backfire with Israelis, will backfire with Palestinians, and can make a two-state consequence extra moderately than much less distant.”
If recognition of a Palestinian state comes out of context, it’s going to make individuals in Washington and elsewhere be ok with themselves. However it might do nothing for Palestinians, as a result of typically they’re finished with gestures. And the explanation that the youthful technology, which doesn’t carry the scars of the Second Intifada like their dad and mom, advocate violent resistance moderately than political resistance, is as a result of the youthful technology doesn’t consider the scenario will get any worse.
That means a reputable path towards a two-state resolution offers them one thing to lose, assuming they or their management are keen to just accept lower than the river to the ocean.
In a single scenario, the terrorist is the hero of the neighborhood as a result of he’s the one one who stands as much as the occupation. Within the different scenario, the identical terrorist in the identical neighborhood dangers what they’ve gained in independence. Will they assist him get protected haven, or are they going to snitch on him so as to not lose?
Will the younger Palestinian who can all of a sudden go overseas, can go to school, sees his life altering, sees his dignity restored — will he danger it as a result of the extremists have a special imaginative and prescient?
I need to return to the safety query — what assurances are you able to give an Israeli who says the dangers of the inevitable future you see are worse than the present association?
It’s a really critical query and I might reply it with the query Start raised earlier than he agreed to withdraw from the Sinai with a view to have peace with Egypt: Within the worst-case situation, will we be capable of rectify the scenario at an affordable price? Are we going to be okay? And he was persuaded by the protection professionals that the reply is sure.
This similar query must be requested about Palestinian statehood. If worse involves worst, if this Hamas or one other Hamas wins elections in a post-peace Palestine and decides that it isn’t happy with lower than all the things, can we rectify the scenario at an affordable price? We spent a yr and a half with an enormous workforce of all disciplines with 1000’s of years of expertise across the desk in creating safety preparations for that eventuality.
And once more, all the time the underside line is we don’t do it as a result of we belief them. We do it as a result of it serves our imaginative and prescient of Israel.
is editor at giant of the New York Jewish Week and managing editor for Concepts for the Jewish Telegraphic Company.
The views and opinions expressed on this article are these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of JTA or its father or mother firm, 70 Faces Media.
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