Mission Divyastra

On 11 March 2024, India demonstrated the long-anticipated A number of Independently Targetable Re-Entry Automobile (MIRV) functionality by testing the prevailing Agni-V in MIRVed configuration below mission title “Divyastra” which implies “divine weapon”. This explicit know-how permits a single missile to hold a number of warheads. The variety of warheads, that this Agni-V variant can carry, has not been made public but; nevertheless, some unnamed Indian defence sources declare that the missile would carry three warheads. Not less than since 2013, Indian scientific group — a minimum of the then Indian DRDO Chief — was discussing the intent of MIRVing the prevailing Agni-V and ostensibly underdevelopment Agni-VI missiles.

The event is being seen in India as part of its technological competitors vis-à-vis China and Pakistan. Regardless that Pakistan had demonstrated this functionality again in 2017, a lot of the Indian commentary excludes Pakistan as they rejoice India becoming a member of an elite group of nations possessing MIRV know-how. Nevertheless, this growth goes past demonstration of technological prowess as there are underlined repercussions for nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability. Introduction of MIRVs is prone to enhance fissile materials calls for, increase Indian counter-force and first-strike capabilities, and show a better orientation in direction of nuclear warfighting. Indian demonstration of this functionality doesn’t look like pushed by the operational necessities of deterrence as China has demonstrated a restricted Ballistic Missile Protection (BMD) functionality — towards which MIRVs are thought-about a potent countermeasure — whereas Pakistan has made a aware determination to not pursue one.

Earlier than being examined with this MIRV functionality, beforehand Agni-V has been examined in canisterised configuration on a number of events. If a nuclear succesful missile is deployed in canisterised type, it implies that the nuclear warhead(s) has already been mated with the missile system and the ‘package deal’ is able to perform a nuclear strike mission. Typically, the MIRV succesful missiles with intercontinental ranges represent a counter-value and retaliatory element of the nuclear forces. But when India is contemplating deployment of MIRVed Agni-V in canister type, it opens up the chance and prospects of it getting used as a possible first-strike weapon. In a first-strike position, this functionality can complement India’s complete first strike ambitions.

Land-based MIRVs current themselves as a profitable goal for pre-emption to the adversary, thereby dramatically decreasing disaster stability. Nevertheless, Agni-V’s is road-mobile and big Indian geographic expanse makes pre-empting the platform a much less probably and a tough situation. Provided that the land-based MIRVed missiles are inherently weak to pre-emption and probably destabilising, it’s probably that MIRVs will see a future adaptation in India’s sea-based nuclear forces. Not like land-based and canisterised MIRVs, sea-based MIRVs sign a retaliatory reasonably than first-strike functionality and could be probably stabilizing.

MIRVs propel vertical proliferation greater than every other technological development and growth regarding nuclear supply methods. Extra warheads signifies that India could have a better demand for army usable fissile supplies. Nevertheless, that is unlikely to pressure Indian growth and deployment choices given the supply of big weapon-usable fissile materials stockpiles exterior IAEA safeguards. Weaponisation of those so-called ‘civilian un-safeguarded’ fissile supplies is prone to instigate a regional arms race and additional circumvent the prospects for a multilateral treaty governing unsafeguarded fissile supplies. States opposing only a ban on additional manufacturing of fissile materials — notably Pakistan — argue that present fissile materials stockpiles (exterior IAEA safeguards) additionally should be factored in for negotiating and finalising a extra simply and significant association governing fissile materials shares.

MIRVs additionally demand miniaturisation of nuclear warheads. With its restricted expertise of nuclear testing and a major evolution in Indian missile methods, since its final nuclear exams in 1998, there can be stress on India to renew nuclear testing in an effort to set up credibility of its nuclear forces which now embody missiles from 150-5,500km ranges, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles aside from the newly launched MIRVs. India has for lengthy voted towards the early entry into pressure, universalisation and strict observance of the Complete Nuclear Check Ban Treaty (CTBT) that may be a viable means ahead for not simply nuclear non-proliferation but in addition nuclear disarmament. This displays Indian need to maintain its choice of nuclear testing open. Just lately, Ashley Tellis additionally hinted in direction of the identical and mentioned that “India could also be compelled to check once more.” Ashley’s feedback and constant sample of voting towards CTBT resolutions in CD and UNGA First Committee could also be seen as basic Indian observe of testing the waters earlier than making any vital strategic determination. Moreover, Russian de-ratification of CTBT and the latest stories of the elevated actions on the US, Russian and Chinese language take a look at websites, level within the route of a world surroundings the place these nuclear weapon states appear to be posturing themselves to use the primary out there alternative to renew nuclear testing. India appears to be knowledgeable by this surroundings and readying itself accordingly.

Led by India, the South Asian area could be keen to use a deteriorating worldwide arms management and non-proliferation structure that’s presently relying solely on US-Russia bilateral NEW START. A further issue is the rising Sino-US rivalry the place India is assuming a lead position regionally. Even this MIRV take a look at is being seen within the context of its (de)stabilising results on the Indo-Pacific area. Nevertheless, if this imminent nuclear arms racing negatively impacts multilateral preparations just like the CTBT and a potential treaty on fissile supplies (FMCT), the results could be far reaching. It might be pragmatic for the South Asian antagonists to study and undertake the Chilly Conflict behaviour and shun sure destabilising applied sciences within the curiosity of regional stability reasonably than mimicking the modern method of hostility and breaking freed from all limitations on armament.

Revealed in The Categorical Tribune, March 27^th, 2024.

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