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Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has staged a comeback with a vengeance within the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Opposite to all expectations, the return of Taliban authorities (now referred as IAG i.e. Interim Afghan Authorities) has not resulted in easing of Pakistan’s worries on its restive Western frontier. Based on the figures shared by subject formation, the terrorist incidents which have been on a precipitous rise ever because the arrival of IAG in Kabul in 2021. The TTP and its associates launched 1,215 assaults in 2023 in Okay-P which is a steep rise in comparison with the 903 in 2021 and 858 in 2022. A complete of 1,803 casualties have been suffered by Military, FC, Police and civilians in 2023 — with injured 1,214 and 589 killed. In 2024, until final week of March, TTP has launched 204 assaults leading to 340 casualties together with 112 fatalities in Okay-P.
What are the principle causes for this spike in violence and its continuous traction particularly within the Newly Merged Districts (NMDs) of Okay-P? The reply lies in quite a few causes that embrace inner in addition to exterior elements. Regardless of repeated engagement, the Taliban authorities has didn’t rein in TTP militants each for ideological in addition to expedient causes.
The religious and temporal energy of IAG authorities resides in Kandahar within the individual of Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada who accords premium to ideological linkages with all those that fought alongside Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA). The TTP makes use of the narrative that “we have been with you when Pakistan betrayed you” and IAG is sympathetic to that narrative. It’s due to the above motive that TTP continues to be being handled with child gloves and indulged by Taliban management inside IAG in Afghanistan.
Up to now no fatwa i.e. spiritual decree has been issued prohibiting TTP assaults on Pakistan by the religious head of IAG, Mullah Haibatullah. As a substitute a easy amr i.e. order has been issued which lacks the spiritual sanction. The thrust due to this fact of our spiritual diplomacy from right here onwards ought to be on securing a fatwa by IAG’s religious head. IAG lacks the need to stop TTP from attacking Pakistan. It has the capability to cease these assaults because it has efficient management right down to village degree in Afghanistan within the form of its vigilance groups. When IAG may management and checkmate Daesh it may very conveniently rein in TTP too.
The recrudescence of Taliban violence owes itself to reversal in Taliban’s fortunes in Afghanistan. After TTA’s ascension to the Kabul throne the TTP that was on the run obtained a brand new lease of life. Satirically a number of hardcore TTP militants like Faqir Muhammad and Gul Muhammad, who escaped within the well-known Nangarhar jailbreak, participated within the abortive peace talks with the Authorities of Pakistan on behalf of TTP. Splinter teams like Hafiz Gul Bahadur and terrorists like Tipu Gul from Lakki Marwat have been corralled into the fold of TTP by way of influential components in IAG.
The inhabitants profile in NMDs reveals numerous girls and youth as a consequence of financial migration of the lads. The aged heads of households and clans exert affect however some are efficient whereas others are ineffective. Because of this, the younger inhabitants comprising youngsters is seething with anger and frustrations which make them liable to terrorists’ trigger which guarantees them pleasure and journey apart from monetary rewards.
One of the best ways forward to counter the depredations of TTP in NMDs is to form an surroundings that denies TTP the house to maneuver. Shaping the pro-state surroundings entails management of the areas and their efficient holding by way of good governance and improvement. The panacea to peace is livelihood provision. The state ought to think about livelihood provision and the native mineral useful resource extraction affords the very best alternative. NMDs are useful resource wealthy however sadly out of 30 exploration blocks solely 6 have to date been explored.
To the shock of many the graph of terrorist acts has plummeted down in areas the place financial exercise was generated for the folks. Darra Adam Khel, the place the unlawful arms commerce has decreased to mere 10% of its earlier quantity with the beginning of coalmines enterprise for locals, is a placing instance of the ability of financial alternative. One other troublesome mountainous space between Hangu and Aurakzai identified by the acronym ‘ZJL’ (Zor Gargaray), which had remained the bête noire of all LEAs, has been weaned away from crime and terrorism as a consequence of involvement of the locals within the profitable coalmines enterprise.
Over centuries within the absence of livelihood alternatives and fertile lands the Mehsud and Wazir tribes in North and South Waziristan had developed stakes in unlawful commerce with Afghanistan. To wean them away from Afghanistan the supply of livelihood alternatives in addition to financial integration with the remainder of the areas of Pakistan is crucial. Poverty and joblessness make folks susceptible to TTP’s recruitment drive. The evaluation of TTP casualties in NMDs reveals that 72% of terrorists killed in final 4 years have been beneath 30 years of age. Whereas 65% of them have been illiterate or major certified, 66% have been jobless, with solely 10% having any felony background.
The focused livelihood alternatives for financial empowerment of the persons are direly wanted for folks, famished of the livelihood means near their villages. Buying malls and medical tourism services close to Pak-Afghan border have enormous potential to behave as employment cum commerce hubs, benefiting each Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The capability of police must be constructed and as an alternative of re-employing the previous lifeless wooden of levies, recent recruitments amongst the locals be made, purely on advantage. The most effective officers ought to be posted as ACs and DCs and their efficiency in NMDs ought to be evaluated as a profession incentive. On political entrance there’s a want for the political possession of the counterterrorism coverage. The Okay-P authorities needs to be taken on board to battle this warfare and consistency of the state insurance policies ensured. On exterior entrance Pakistan wants to stay positively engaged with IAG whereas pulling all stops to advertise and facilitate authorized commerce between the 2 international locations.
The hydra-headed monster of TTP terrorism may be solely be slayed with an assault on a number of fronts by entire of the society.
Revealed in The Specific Tribune, April 9th, 2024.
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