Territorial beneficial properties in northeast Syria, the place authorities forces took the cities of Raqqa and Deir Az Zor from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been a boon to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Negotiations with the SDF have been ongoing for the reason that fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024 over the primary Kurdish consultant in Syria’s integration into the Syrian armed forces. Al-Sharaa has used various techniques in opposition to the group, just lately asserting a decree for Kurdish rights whereas additionally confronting the group militarily.
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The SDF’s loss is al-Sharaa and his authorities’s achieve. However essentially the most vital signal of Syria’s improved standing might come from the truth that US officers, who’ve lengthy backed the SDF as a companion in combating ISIL (ISIS), have given their backing to al-Sharaa and Syrian forces after these newest developments.
Ceasefire and agreements
These current developments by the Syrian authorities have stripped away a lot of the SDF’s leverage.
“This was about [the Syrian government forces] taking management of essentially the most resource-rich components of SDF territory that had the demographically highest variety of Arabs, so that they managed to play this very nicely by having a restricted offensive however, on the identical time, getting the tribal networks to stand up in opposition to SDF rule; and as soon as they did that, it was principally sport over for the SDF,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s Faculty London, instructed Al Jazeera.
When the Assad regime fell in December 2024, the SDF was hesitant to throw its hat into the ring with the brand new forces in Damascus. Negotiations between Mazloum Abdi, the SDF’s chief, also called Mazloum Kobani, and al-Sharaa culminated in an settlement on March 10, 2025 to combine the Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian authorities forces.
Nonetheless, particulars of the settlement had been nonetheless to be ironed out. The SDF didn’t need to hand over the hard-fought beneficial properties it had made over the past 14 years of battle. It has beforehand known as for autonomous management or decentralised rule within the northeast.
Rigidity had simmered between the 2 sides, manifesting in current clashes in Aleppo and an SDF withdrawal from town throughout the Euphrates River. Syrian authorities forces superior in the direction of the northeast and have now taken territory, together with the cities of Raqqa and Deir Az Zor.
A ceasefire was agreed on Monday, however clashes continued on Tuesday within the Hasakah area of northeast Syria, as Kurds there and within the diaspora feared incursions by authorities forces.
Current discussions appeared to have settled on a system the place the SDF management would preserve management over three Kurdish-led divisions in Syrian forces, whereas the remainder of the fighters would combine as people. Analysts mentioned it now appears as if particular person integration is extra more likely to go forward.
“They [the Syrian government] have achieved a really huge milestone by forcing the SDF to combine as people,” Labib Nahhas, a Syrian analyst, instructed Al Jazeera. “However vetting shall be an enormous problem as a result of we’re speaking about 50 to 70 or 80,000 troopers, so it is a huge infiltration from a safety perspective.”
Kurdish rights
Earlier than this vital improvement, the SDF had been negotiating with Damascus over a couple of key factors. Along with discussions about integration, it wished some type of autonomy or political decentralisation and the popularity of Kurdish rights.
On January 16, on the again of fierce combating between authorities forces and the SDF in Aleppo, al-Sharaa issued a decree formally recognising Kurdish as a “nationwide language” and restoring citizenship to all Kurdish Syrians.
The decree, which declared Newroz, the spring and new 12 months pageant celebrated by Kurds, a nationwide vacation and banned ethnic or linguistic discrimination, addressed one key SDF demand.
Beneath the Assad regime, Kurds had been an oppressed minority in Syria. Their language and id weren’t formally recognised and sometimes suppressed by the state.
The transfer was described by Obayda Ghadban, a researcher with Syria’s Ministry of International Affairs and Expatriates, as historic.
“It has recognised the cultural, linguistic rights of Kurdish Syrians, which is a grievance that has been accumulating for many years,” he instructed Al Jazeera. “This was seen as a gesture of goodwill by the SDF and regained the momentum of negotiations which have been going [on] for greater than a 12 months now.”
Al-Sharaa introduced a four-day ceasefire with the SDF on Tuesday and mentioned if a deal may very well be reached, authorities forces would go away Kurdish-majority cities like Hasakah and Qamishli to deal with their safety themselves.
Regardless of the carrot-and-stick method, some analysts felt al-Sharaa’s recognition of Kurdish rights was seemingly a political tactic.
“Had the same decree been issued six months in the past within the context of relative peace between the 2 sides, I imagine the state of affairs would have been very totally different,” Thomas McGee, Max Weber fellow on the European College Institute in Florence, Italy, instructed Al Jazeera.
“The truth that no recognition of Kurdish rights got here for the total first 12 months after the autumn of al-Assad is certainly vital. With this decree all of a sudden popping out inside the context of enormous army developments exhibits that the Syrian authorities considers recognition of Kurdish rights as a tactical situation slightly than such rights being thought of innate and unconditional.”
Shortly after the announcement, al-Sharaa introduced a army operation in Deir Hafir, a city within the north, 50km (31 miles) east of Aleppo, the place SDF forces had retreated after evacuating the neighbourhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh in Aleppo. Some Syrians and analysts instructed Al Jazeera that the SDF’s popularity had suffered amid the combating in Aleppo, even amongst some Kurds, nevertheless it didn’t imply Kurds would throw their weight behind the federal government.
“[Al-Sharaa] wished to do that earlier than the army operation,” Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst of Kurdish politics based mostly in Erbil, Iraq, instructed Al Jazeera.
“The Kurdish sentiment is not going to change a lot in the direction of the federal government as a result of it doesn’t recognise any type of native autonomy, and each the primary Kurdish events need some type of autonomy or decentralisation.”
US and Turkiye
Worldwide actors may also have their eyes on the developments in northeast Syria.
Turkiye seems to be a giant winner within the newest developments. The nation warned the SDF in early January that its “persistence is operating out” with the group.
“Ankara has welcomed the ceasefire and Full Integration Settlement, and it’s definitely in Turkish pursuits,” McGee mentioned. “Finally, on the SDF/self-administration integration, Turkiye and Damascus have lengthy shared the identical normal purple traces.”
There has additionally been a dialogue about international fighters in SDF-controlled areas, which, beneath the ceasefire settlement, Nahhas mentioned, the SDF was required to expel any “PKK-linked or affiliated people or operatives”.
Then there may be the US, which helped dealer the ceasefire because of its shut relationship with the SDF and Damascus. The US at present has about 900 troopers within the SDF-controlled components of Syria for countering ISIL, and analysts mentioned it was unlikely these troops would withdraw.
However beneath the Trump administration, relations between Washington and Damascus have warmed significantly.
Al-Sharaa, who had been thought of a “terrorist” by the US when the Assad regime fell in 2024, visited the White Home in November 2025, marking a exceptional turnaround in only a 12 months. Shortly after that go to, Syria joined the anti-ISIL coalition.
After a telephone name with al-Sharaa, US President Donald Trump launched an announcement on Monday supporting Syria’s unity and “struggle in opposition to terrorism”.
Not each US official was happy with the current occasions. US Senator Lindsey Graham, a detailed Trump ally, posted on X on Tuesday his assist for the SDF.
“You can’t unite Syria by way of army drive as Syrian authorities chief Ahmed Al-Sharaa is making an attempt to do,” he wrote. “This transfer by Syrian authorities forces in opposition to SDF members is fraught with peril.”
Graham and others could also be involved about reviews of 39 escaped ISIL detainees from prisons beforehand held by the SDF, or, on the opposite aspect, SDF claims that authorities forces killed feminine Kurdish fighters.
However the sentiment within the US appears to be shifting closely in favour of Damascus. On Tuesday afternoon, US Particular Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack posted on X that the US was throwing its assist behind al-Sharaa and selecting Damascus over the SDF.
“The best alternative for the Kurds in Syria proper now lies within the post-Assad transition beneath the brand new authorities led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa,” Barrack wrote. “This shifts the rationale for the US-SDF partnership: the unique objective of the SDF as the first anti-ISIS drive on the bottom has largely expired, as Damascus is now each keen and positioned to take over safety duties, together with management of ISIS detention amenities and camps.”
