Biden, Xi Reassure World but US, China Still on Collision Course: Experts

By AFP 15 November 2022

NUSA DUA, Indonesia—Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping each sought to decrease the temperature between the US and China throughout a uncommon summit, however few analysts anticipate any deeper easing of tensions.

After three hours of talks in Bali, Biden mentioned there needn’t be a brand new Chilly Struggle between the 2 powers and Xi advised him that China was not difficult the worldwide order.

The White Home mentioned that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken would go to China, the primary go to by the highest US diplomat in additional than 4 years.

Biden “despatched a reassuring message and the Chinese language readout was positively glowing. That in itself reveals either side’ curiosity in enhancing ties,” mentioned Yun Solar, director of the China program on the Stimson Middle in Washington.

However past a shared hope to keep away from worst-case eventualities and direct clashes, she mentioned the 2 powers had very totally different views on what a extra steady relationship means, particularly on the flashpoint of Taiwan.

“If we anticipate this summit to miraculously rescue this relationship and restore it to a greater place, I feel we have to see extra concrete actions,” she mentioned.

Rui Zhong of the Wilson Middle described the Bali summit as “upkeep work” and mentioned even Blinken’s go to may wind up being extra about “treading water” than breakthroughs.

Furthermore, for the primary in-person summit between the 2 nations’ presidents since 2019, all sides had an curiosity in downplaying friction.

Biden and Xi have been visiting for the Group of 20 summit, with host Indonesia inviting leaders of fellow Southeast Asian nations, a number of of which have maritime conflicts with China.

“For Xi, the notion of regional stability continues to be one thing that he want to maintain onto,” Zhong mentioned. “China rising and throwing its weight round has been a long-held concern of the smaller states of Southeast Asia.”

“Xi features nothing by coming off as excessively chilly, rigid and unnecessarily hawkish towards Biden, no less than when head to head.”

For Biden, probably the most urgent diplomatic precedence has been reining in Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and he has trumpeted what he sees as China’s wavering assist for nominal ally Moscow, together with a refusal to ship weapons.

The White Home mentioned Xi agreed with Biden on “opposition to the use or risk of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” a phrase absent in China’s assertion.

Deep suspicions

No matter their messaging to the world, each powers have deep suspicions of the opposite’s intentions.

The Biden administration, in a nationwide safety technique launched final month, known as China the one energy that would problem US primacy and sought a deal with guaranteeing america preserves a “aggressive edge,” together with on new expertise.

Deng Xiaoping, who spearheaded China’s modernization within the Nineteen Eighties, famously mentioned his nation ought to “bide time” and deal with its rise somewhat than instantly difficult different powers.

US policymakers extensively see China as newly assertive below Xi, the nation’s strongest chief in many years, who simply secured a precedent-setting third time period.

Rush Doshi, a China adviser to Biden who took half within the Bali talks, wrote in a 2019 ebook whereas out of presidency that Xi noticed historic alternatives as a result of what he seen as Western decline, evidenced by the rise of Donald Trump, Britain’s exit from the European Union and the pandemic response.

China’s technique includes “blunting and constructing efforts worldwide to displace america as the worldwide chief,” he wrote.

Taiwan flashpoint

An space the place the connection may shortly deteriorate is Taiwan, the self-governing democracy claimed by Beijing that stirs ardour on either side.

Biden’s Republican rivals shortly attacked his diplomacy, with hawkish Senator Tom Cotton saying the “naive return to a coverage of appeasement will harm america, endanger Taiwan and additional embolden Xi Jinping.”

Biden advised reporters he understood that Xi wouldn’t launch an “imminent” invasion of Taiwan, however Xi once more warned about supporting Taiwan’s “independence ”

China carried out main navy workout routines in August after a defiant go to to Taipei by Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, second in line to the presidency.

Republican Kevin McCarthy, who might grow to be the subsequent speaker as votes are counted from final week’s election, has made clear he would additionally go to Taiwan.

After Biden’s reassurances, Xi “might need a little bit extra room to not overreact” to a McCarthy go to, Solar mentioned.

“However even then, I doubt the Chinese language can afford to not react harshly.”