The UAE just received twenty drones from Turkey. What’s the backstory?

In March 2021, Tawazun, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) protection and safety acquisitions authority for the armed forces, and Turkey’s Baykar Protection, the manufacturing firm of the famend indigenous Bayraktar TB2 drone, held discussions on attainable cooperation. The talks continued for a number of months earlier than the Emiratis launched a mouthwatering $2 billion provide. The deal included Abu Dhabi’s request to fulfill a buying listing of 120 TB2 drones, ammunition, command and management models, and coaching.

The information got here in mild of discussions on taking protection cooperation between the 2 states to the following stage. On September 21, Turkey reportedly delivered twenty of its Bayraktars to the UAE. A senior Turkish official confirmed that his nation had delivered some drones and that Abu Dhabi was certainly looking for extra. Many observers that I spoke to discovered this improvement on the protection and army stage fairly shocking for 2 main causes.

First, TB2 manufacturing traces are totally occupied after hitting their most capability with the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. In accordance to Baykar’s CEO, Haluk Bayraktar, the Turkish drone maker is totally booked for 3 years. Though Ankara is working to extend its manufacturing capability amid the rising worldwide demand for its TB2, there isn’t any room in the meanwhile to fulfill shocking and unscheduled wants swiftly.

One more reason is the UAE’s assertive international coverage and expertise with Chinese language drones. It presumably means that Abu Dhabi may use the Turkish drones in a approach that contradicts Ankara’s regional pursuits and even move them to 3rd events that would threaten such pursuits. On this sense, one can recall a precedent throughout which Libyan warlord Normal Khalifa Haftar, accused of committing warfare crimes, used UAE-acquired, China-made Wing Loong drones in opposition to the United Nations-recognized and Turkey-backed Libyan authorities in Tripoli in 2019.

The truth that Baykar Protection determined to ship Abu Dhabi twenty of its flagship TB2 drones regardless of the circumstances in Libya implies that Turkey attaches nice significance to the Emirati provide, and the 2 events resolved the priority associated to the character of utilizing the Turkish drone. The Turks didn’t need to lose the deal. Nevertheless, they didn’t ship all that the UAE requested for both. This technique ought to maintain each side engaged in protection talks for fairly a while.

A shocking provide

In 2011, Abu Dhabi and Ankara signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on protection trade cooperation. The MoU was ratified in 2017. Though the UAE has remained one of many prime importers of Turkey’s protection gear within the final decade, no important progress has been made on protection trade cooperation. Nevertheless, the attainable realization of a $2 billion deal is undoubtedly a departure from the standard development.

Following the normalization of relations with Turkey in February 2021, the UAE expressed its intention to quick monitor the cooperation on the extent of protection. This resulted within the two events signing a letter of intent in protection trade cooperation that arrange common conferences between their representatives to outline areas of cooperation and comply with up on outcomes. Throughout a gathering with the Justice and Growth Social gathering’s (AKP) Central Government Committee in July 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan uncovered that the UAE supplied to construct a manufacturing facility for the TB2 in Abu Dhabi. However why Turkish drones specifically? And what’s the justification for getting 120 models and even constructing a manufacturing facility?

The UAE’s drone power relies upon primarily on some growing old US drones in addition to fashionable Chinese language variations. Abu Dhabi’s stock of drones consists of MQ-1 Predators, the export model of the RQ-1 Predator (which is incapable of carrying weapons), and Chinese language Wing Loong I and Wing Loong II drones. Most of those drones are meant for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions.

Regarding drones acquired from the US, the UAE requested to purchase the superior MQ-9 Reaper two years in the past, however Washington suspended its request in 2021. As for the Chinese language drones, though the Wing Lengthy II, able to carrying a number of varieties of ammunition, has been promoted because the cost-effective different to the US-made MQ-9 Reaper, its efficiency has been modest. In comparison with the Turkish TB2, though greater and heavier, the Chinese language drones didn’t shine. A number of consumers have expressed disappointment with the efficiency of China-made drones.

On this sense, shopping for Turkish drones would diversify and modernize the UAE’s stock. Moreover, buying Turkish unmanned fight aerial automobiles (UCAVs) would serve the UAE’s present technique of investing in and creating autonomous capabilities, digital warfare capability, and good munitions. Searching for know-how, experience, and gear from main superior suppliers past the US means constructing a working relationship with Turkey.

Motives behind the deal

Regardless of its significance, the diversification motive doesn’t alone provide a complete reply as to why the UAE would ask for 120 Turkish drones and even provide to construct a manufacturing facility to supply them. A number of political, enterprise, and defense-related causes may assist make clear the motives behind the mega Emirati provide.

First, it’s value contemplating the TB2’s efficiency in untraditional army confrontations in addition to hybrid warfare. What makes Turkish drones extraordinarily fascinating to clients from across the globe is that it’s typically a highly-efficient army system at low price. It has been battlefield-tested in a number of crucial geopolitical theaters of various hostile circumstances and environments. Regardless of some limitations on its operational vary with the absence of sufficient floor stations and its dependence on them as an alternative of satellite tv for pc communications, the TB2’s efficiency is enough to offer Abu Dhabi a significant new drone fleet.  

Second, the deal serves as a message to the US: “If you don’t promote us weapons, we are going to get them from elsewhere.” Through the Donald Trump administration, Abu Dhabi requested to purchase Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, Normal Atomics Aeronautical Techniques Inc. (GA-ASI) MQ-9 Remotely Piloted Plane (RPAS), and different gear and munitions with an estimated worth of $23 billion. Though the Trump administration initially agreed to proceed with the ask, the Biden administration later suspended the deal, together with as much as eighteen MQ-9B and associated gear reportedly value $3 billion.

Third, Abu Dhabi’s deal shouldn’t be solely seen from a technical perspective. A $2 billion provide is supposed to purchase Emirati affect inside Turkey and create sturdy working relations with political establishments and the rising protection trade based mostly on shared pursuits and threats. Lately, the UAE and Turkey have been dealing with an rising risk from the enlargement of the Iran-backed Shia militias of their neighboring theaters. The TB2 has proved to be a fairly compelling offensive platform in opposition to highly-valued army belongings, armed teams, and militias. 

Following normalization relations with Ankara, the UAE has displayed its monetary energy and deepened its enterprise ties with Turkey. The protection trade sector is one area the place Abu Dhabi can meet a few of its protection wants and concurrently make enterprise and revenue.

As for Turkey, taking into account the importance of the attainable realization of a $2 billion deal, it most likely had a number of delicate issues to contemplate earlier than cautiously continuing. One of many problematic points is that promoting 120 drones directly to the UAE—even when they’re obtainable—would alter the fragile army steadiness inside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. By delivering twenty TB2s in September, nonetheless, Ankara nonetheless had the possibility to check others’ will to purchase extra of its drones and even stimulate them to take action with out severely undermining the steadiness inside the GCC.

Finally, the UAE and Turkey most likely contemplate the present components underneath which they executed the TB2 deal a win-win scenario. Turkey confirmed that it may safe UAE’s protection necessities even in distinctive or pressing instances. On the identical time, Abu Dhabi proved that it may put its cash the place its mouth is by way of opening a brand new web page with Ankara and boosting bilateral relations.

Ali Bakir is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council. He’s additionally an assistant professor at Qatar College. Observe him on Twitter: @AliBakeer.

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Picture: An engineer from Turkish drone-maker Baykar stands subsequent to a TB2 drone throughout the first day of SAHA EXPO Defence & Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul, Turkey, November 10, 2021. REUTERS/Umit Bektas