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PDF troops in Sagaing Area.
By Yuzana 2 December 2022
A latest ceasefire between Myanmar’s navy regime and the Arakan Military (AA) in Rakhine State has sparked concern amongst different revolutionary forces that the junta will redeploy troops to launch offensives of their areas.
The junta and the ethnic armed group agreed to a short lived ceasefire final week to deal with native meals and medication shortages after junta troops blocked provide routes. The ceasefire was brokered by the chairman of Japan’s Nippon Basis, Yohei Sasakawa, who’s near junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.
Sasakawa additionally mediated the earlier ceasefire between the Myanmar navy and the AA forward of the November 2020 normal election, after two years of intense combating. That truce held even after the navy coup in February final 12 months triggered a nationwide revolt in opposition to junta rule by different ethnic armed forces and native resistance forces.
Nevertheless, clashes in Rakhine flared once more in Could after the junta started arresting civilians and blocking the circulate of products, mentioned the AA. Seven months on, each side have agreed a short lived truce for humanitarian aid.
Impression on different revolutionary forces
The Myanmar navy has deployed about 40,000 troopers in Rakhine State, in accordance with AA.
The troop deployment is massive for a regime military that has been depleted by years of defections and rising casualties from battles with resistance forces throughout the nation since 2021.
Regime troops from the Ayeyarwady Area Coast Guard and 4 Mild Infantry Divisions – the eleventh, twenty second, 77th and fifty fifth – have deployed in Rakhine State.
The eleventh and twenty second Mild Infantry Divisions are stationed in Buthidaung township and northern Maungdaw whereas the fifty fifth is predicated in southern Paletwa, between Paletwa and Kyauktaw township. The 4 divisions are from Yangon Area, Bago Area, Southern Shan State and Karen State, respectively.
Troops from the nineteenth Army Operations Command have arrange a base in northern Paletwa.
Junta forces in Rakhine have additionally been swelled by rebadged Western Command troopers from different gentle infantry divisions, particularly in Ann township, in accordance with AA spokesperson Khaing Thukha.
The longer the ceasefire holds, the extra probably the junta will divert troops from Rakhine to neighboring Chin State and Magwe and Sagaing areas, the place it’s concentrating on each civilians and armed resistance teams in a fierce battle for management.
“It is a probability for the navy to assemble its power. If the ceasefire holds for a very long time, it could hurt each the general public and resistance forces in our areas,” Ko Wai Gyi, a consultant of Yesagyo Folks’s Protection Drive in Magwe Area, advised The Irrawaddy.
A spokesperson for Chin Protection Drive (Paletwa) additionally voiced concern over the Rakhine ceasefire, including the resistance group was in need of weapons and ammunition.
“Paletwa is the closest [Chin] township to Rakhine State. It’s actually worrying, ” he advised The Irrawaddy.
Any ceasefire between the navy and a strong armed drive weakened the revolution, mentioned Ko Nway Oo, a spokesperson for the Civil Defence and Safety Group in Myaung Township, Sagaing Area.
“If the navy doesn’t have to make use of troops on one entrance, it may well use them on the opposite entrance. So, we have to put together a method to reply,” Ko Nway Oo advised The Irrawaddy.
There may be additionally criticism of the AA for calling a ceasefire when individuals throughout the nation have risen in opposition to the navy.
The AA spokesperson responded that it had already defined the rationale for the ceasefire and welcomed completely different opinions.
“Intense wars in any nation are interrupted by ceasefires in the event that they change into obligatory. Those that have spoken out with completely different views will quickly come to know [this ceasefire],” Khaing Thukha mentioned.
Doubts about redeployment
Though resistance forces and civilians are nervous about potential offensives in different areas following the ceasefire, the junta can not afford to withdraw its troops from Rakhine, in accordance with an observer of navy affairs.
“For the reason that truce is only a mutual understanding not backed by a written settlement, combating might resume at any time. So, the navy is not going to dare to withdraw its troops from Rakhine State,” mentioned the observer, who requested anonymity for security causes.
Furthermore, junta naval forces in coastal Rakhine State can not change to different battlegrounds. Solely the regime air drive might redeploy to different areas, he added.
The protection minister of the parallel civilian Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG) agrees with that evaluation. U Yee Mon advised Radio Free Asia that he doubted the junta might redeploy troopers from Rakhine to different battlefronts.
“There shall be just a few adjustments in troop preparations. However, pulling all of its troops out of Rakhine and sending them to different fronts appears unlikely, “U Yee Mon mentioned.
He mentioned the NUG additionally believes the AA is not going to abandon the revolution and is certain the ceasefire is short-term.
Message from resistance forces
Resistance forces have however been urged to organize for the potential of heavy regime offensives of their areas.
Alternatively, the ceasefire received’t have a severe affect on the continuing anti-regime resistance motion, Ko Nway Oo and Ko Wai Gyi mentioned.
“The earlier the entire nation participates within the revolution, the earlier the revolution shall be over. Even when the entire nation can’t take part within the revolution, it’s higher to develop the conflict entrance,” mentioned Ko Wai Gyi from the Yesagyo Folks’s Protection Drive in Magwe.
He additionally requested the NUG to barter with ethnic armed organizations to develop the conflict of resistance in opposition to navy rule.
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