Putin to Visit Kyrgyzstan for EAEU Summit – The Diplomat

Crossroads Asia | Diplomacy | Central Asia

On December 9, Kyrgyzstan will host a gathering of the Supreme Eurasian Financial Council, the Eurasian Financial Union’s highest physique. Russian President Vladimir Putin is anticipated to attend in particular person.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev are additionally anticipated to attend, on condition that Kyrgyz authorities have harassed that the assembly will happen in particular person — versus just about, as was the council’s Might 2022 assembly.

Consideration has targeted on Putin and his making a uncommon tour outdoors of Russia. However one other deliberate attendee of notice is Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Uzbekistan is an observer within the EAEU, lately flirting with membership however stopping quick of totally pursuing it. Mirziyoyev will arrive in Bishkek on December 9 and the following day will start his long-anticipated state go to to Kyrgyzstan.

Arguably in anticipation of protests — both towards Putin over the battle in Ukraine or Mirziyoyev over the Kempir-Abad reservoir border deal — authorities within the Kygryz capital prolonged a ban on rallies that has been in place for the reason that spring. 

In March, a courtroom in Bishkek issued a ban on rallies close to the Russian embassy, which is positioned between two espresso retailers in central Bishkek, and the close by Ala-Too Sq., which has lengthy featured as a major protest location within the metropolis. 

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Final week, the identical courtroom not solely prolonged the earlier ban to the tip of the yr however expanded it to incorporate Erkindik Boulevard, a pair of streets bordering a protracted skinny wooded park that runs from close to Ala-Too Sq. practically half a mile south to the Bishkek Railway Station. The boulevard, its title which means “freedom,” is one other standard protest and march location. 

Protesters in Bishkek have been requested to relocate to Gorky Park, west of the capital’s fundamental authorities buildings. 

The Eurasian Financial Union’s relevance and future have been challenged by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even because the battle has elevated the union’s utility for Russia. A Chatham Home explainer revealed earlier this yr famous that “For Russia the advantages of the [EAEU] are primarily political.” However, the identical explainer famous, within the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, the EAEU has change into “significantly extra helpful economically to Russia than ever earlier than. International locations akin to Kazakhstan have been instrumental in permitting it to bypass sanctions and import restricted items.”

One evaluation revealed in August acknowledged that whereas Kazakhstan’s exports to Russia over the earlier six months had solely elevated barely, sure commodity classes witnessed a dramatic growth: For instance in January-June 2021 Kazakhstan exported simply $190,000 in computer systems to Russia; in the identical interval in 2022 that figured exploded to $35.8 million. Comparable leaps had been witnessed for smartphones and railway automobile axles.

Kyrgyz exports to Russia, in the meantime, have practically doubled in keeping with knowledge compiled by the U.N. COMTRADE Database. Within the first eight months of 2021, Kyrgyz exported $227 million in items to Russia; that determine for a similar interval in 2022 is $438 million, with distinct spikes in Might and June (a breakdown of commodities didn’t appear to be accessible, although it will be fascinating to see).

As Japarov welcomes the leaders of the EAEU to Bishkek later this week, evergreen questions concerning the EAEU’s utility for Kyrgyzstan — and all of the member states — will once more be aired. However the Ukraine battle has arguably altered the steadiness, if just for the interim whereas Russia’s capability to commerce extra extensively on this planet is curtailed by sanctions. This isn’t with out dangers, but additionally not with out earnings.

On December 6, Japarov’s birthday, Putin despatched a pleasant telegram and adopted up with a telephone name. He’ll quickly land in Bishkek hoping to reveal, in distinction to his avoidance of the latest G-20 and APEC conferences, that Russia nonetheless has buddies on this planet.