The Chinese century is already over

MADISON, WISCONSIN – In January, China formally acknowledged that its inhabitants started to say no final yr — roughly 9 years sooner than Chinese language demographers and the United Nations had projected.

The implications of this are onerous to overstate. It signifies that all of China’s financial, overseas and protection insurance policies are based mostly on defective demographic knowledge.

For instance, Chinese language authorities economists have predicted that by 2049, China’s per capita gross home product could have reached half and even three-quarters that of the US, whereas its total GDP could have grown to twice and even thrice that of its rival. However these forecasts assumed that China’s inhabitants can be 4 instances that of the U.S. in 2049. The actual figures inform a really totally different story. Assuming that China is fortunate sufficient to stabilize its fertility price at 1.1 kids per girl, its inhabitants in 2049 shall be simply 2.9 instances that of the U.S. and all its key indicators of demographic and financial vitality shall be a lot worse.