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On Monday, Hong Kong Chief Govt Carrie Lam introduced that she wouldn’t search reelection, marking an finish to her tumultuous tenure because the chief of Hong Kong. The election of the subsequent Chief Govt was rescheduled from March 27 to Might 8 because of the pandemic, and Lam’s possible successor up to now seems to be Hong Kong’s Chief Secretary John Lee, a pro-Beijing hardliner with a powerful nationwide safety background. Peter Lee from the Hong Kong Free Press described Carrie Lam’s announcement throughout her weekly COVID-19 briefing:
“I can’t run within the sixth chief govt elections,” Lam stated. “In different phrases, I’ll full my five-year chief govt time period on June 30, and can formally finish my 42-year profession in authorities.”
[…] Lam went on to specific her gratitude to state organs in Hong Kong together with the Liaison Workplace and the Ministry of International Affairs, in addition to Chinese language provincial leaders for his or her “assist in permitting Hong Kong to deepen its cooperation with the mainland.”
[…] Lam stated she first expressed her intention to not search re-election to Beijing in March final yr. She stated there was just one consideration, and it was her household. “All of them thought it’s time for me to come back dwelling,” she stated.
Lam stated she had acquired “understanding and respect” for her determination from the central authorities. [Source]
It isn’t clear whether or not her departure was a alternative of her personal or dictated from Beijing. Some have pointed to her fumbled dealing with of the town’s fifth wave of COVID-19 as a potential final straw for her mainland authorities backers. Her “persistent demonstration of incompetence, most not too long ago over the administration of the COVID outbreaks, sealed her destiny,” stated Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute on the College of London. Creator and former NPR China correspondent Louisa Lim added: “Her slavish devotion to Beijing could be seen mirrored in Hong Kong’s Covid technique, which has been characterised by quite a few U-turns in addition to a strenuous try by officers to disregard recommendation from medical professionals.” A Wall Avenue Journal editorial summarized Lam’s controversial legacy, affected by her oversight of the Nationwide Safety Legislation’s introduction:
The dying of free Hong Kong was deliberate in Beijing, however Carrie Lam will go down in historical past as its chief executioner. On Monday she stated she gained’t search a second five-year time period as the town’s chief govt, however her legacy is safe.
A profession civil-servant who prospered underneath British rule, she was obliged as governor underneath the town’s Fundamental Legislation to protect the town’s autonomy (“one nation, two methods”) that China promised after it took management in 1997. She failed completely. In 2019 she frightened the general public by making an attempt to muscle by way of an extradition invoice to topic Hong Kongers to mainland legal guidelines and courts. Hundreds of thousands protested and Ms. Lam backed down.
However in 2020 she swung the axe when China imposed a national-security legislation that outlaws dissent, with a most penalty of life in jail. Almost Hong Kong’s complete political opposition has been disqualified from holding workplace, pushed into exile, or arrested. The press has been stifled or had its belongings seized, and the courts can’t be trusted. [Source]
Having served in greater than 20 positions in Hong Kong’s authorities over 42 years, Carrie Lam will face a unique life-style after stepping down as Chief Govt. Housing and finance, for instance, could show to be significantly difficult because of Western sanctions. As she doesn’t maintain a British passport, Lam could encounter issues ought to she try and rejoin her British-passport-holding husband and two sons within the UK, since huge petitions have referred to as for revoking their citizenship and British lawmakers have beforehand threatened to sanction her. Ought to Lam stay in Hong Kong, buying a home could also be an issue, since Western sanctions pressured her to obtain her authorities wage in money. The Hong Kong Customary described how a house buy could be troublesome with out financial institution accounts or bank cards:
In keeping with earlier declarations, Lam and her husband Lam Siu-por doesn’t personal any properties in Hong Kong. If she decides to purchase a brand new flat, she will be unable to get any mortgage with out a checking account.
In case she goes with money, she should put together an enormous pile of banknotes, given properties price not less than a number of million HK {dollars}.
An alternate is for the household to stay elsewhere. Lam Siu-por owns a residential flat in Zhongshan metropolis, Guangdong province, in line with declarations made earlier. [Source]
Lam’s possible alternative as Chief Govt is John Lee, who served as Hong Kong’s Chief Secretary till he resigned on Wednesday to be able to run for the open place. After his lengthy climb from a police inspector to the quantity two determine in authorities, Lee was chargeable for intensifying the appliance of the Nationwide Safety Legislation and cracking down on its opponents. Austin Ramzy from The New York Occasions reported that Lee’s choose by Beijing would sign an renewed emphasis on guaranteeing safety in Hong Kong:
Earlier than turning into chief secretary final yr, Mr. Lee, 64, had spent his complete profession with Hong Kong’s safety companies, first with the police, finally turning into deputy commissioner, earlier than shifting to the town’s safety bureau, which oversees the police, prisons, immigration and hearth departments.
There, he turned the safety secretary, after which led the federal government’s marketing campaign to suppress the widespread protests in 2019 towards a proposal to permit extraditions to mainland China, which quickly expanded right into a broader antigovernment motion.
[…] “Beijing’s precedence is to place political regime safety above monetary safety in Hong Kong,” stated Sonny Lo, a political analyst based mostly in Hong Kong.
“It isn’t shocking for a safety official to very possible take over the chief govt place in Hong Kong,” he added. “It conforms with the pattern of securitization in mainland China previously 10 years, particularly after Xi Jinping got here to energy.” [Source]
Different personnel modifications in Hong Kong because the Nationwide Safety Legislation have strengthened the town’s restructuring round a securitized strategy to governance. Appointments of hardliners and legislation enforcement figures embrace Zheng Yanxiong in Beijing’s Workplace for Safeguarding Nationwide Safety in Hong Kong; Shi Kehui and Xia Baolong within the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Workplace; Zheng Lin and Luo Huining within the Hong Kong liaison workplace; Chris Tang as Hong Kong’s safety secretary; and Main Normal Peng Jingtang because the commander of Hong Kong’s PLA garrison.
The subsequent Hong Kong Chief Govt shall be chosen by the Election Committee by way of an electoral course of that was reformed after the Nationwide Safety Legislation to make sure that solely “patriots” will serve in workplace. As a part of the modifications, the variety of members within the Election Committee was expanded from 1,200 to 1,500, and a whole lot of pro-Beijing figures had been appointed to those new seats on the expense of democratically-elected members. A fifth part comprising “patriotic teams” was added to the committee, and candidates for Chief Govt are required to obtain nominations from not less than 15 members of every part. Along with these reforms that tilt the scales additional in favor of pro-Beijing candidates, as Tony Cheung described, John Lee’s thus-far uncontested race is a foul search for Hong Kong:
Critics have steered that the credibility of the overhauled system, and the general public mandate of the subsequent chief, would each endure, if she or he had been elected uncontested.
[…] United States-based authorized scholar Michael Davis additionally stated Lee was “clearly raised up by way of the ranks rapidly to be the place he’s now to hold out Beijing’s give attention to safety and management as the first coverage for Hong Kong”.
However Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of the Beijing-based semi-official assume tank, the Chinese language Affiliation of Hong Kong and Macau Research, stated a “protected election” was Beijing’s choice for the town for this spherical.
“The central authorities can not enable multiple sturdy candidate to come back out because the opposition forces may make use of the chance to fire up bother and undermine the patriotic camp’s unity,” he stated. [Source]
A stricter give attention to nationwide safety, as anticipated underneath John Lee, may additional restrict residents’ civil and political rights in Hong Kong. At China File, Eric Yan-ho Lai and Thomas Kellogg not too long ago shared knowledge from the Georgetown Middle for Asian Legislation demonstrating that the Nationwide Safety Legislation has dealt a tough blow to freedom of speech, with almost a 3rd of all arrests underneath it involving speech crimes:
Our knowledge present that the [National Security Department] has broadened the kinds of speech it considers harmful, enhanced its authorized toolkit for repression, and frequently detained folks for prolonged durations with minimal judicial oversight. The NSL’s [National Security Law] enforcement has weakened Hong Kong’s civil society sector in ways in which prolong past the plight of people caught in its maw.
From July 1, 2020 to March 28, 2022, 183 people had been arrested for alleged nationwide safety crimes. These arrests had been principally associated to the NSL, but additionally to different crimes, equivalent to sedition. This breaks right down to a mean of just about 9 arrests per 30 days. Only a few of those circumstances would represent nationwide security-related crimes in different rights-respecting jurisdictions. As was the case in our earlier evaluation of NSL arrests in Might 2021, the overwhelming majority of arrests focused actions that may be thought of peaceable and constitutionally-protected train of fundamental political and civil rights in different jurisdictions. In truth, such actions would have been protected in Hong Kong itself previous to the NSL’s enactment in July 2020.
[…] These circumstances clarify that limits on free speech prolong properly past a slender record of pro-democracy slogans and requires Hong Kong independence. Additionally they sign that the federal government is adapting and increasing its censorship regime to accord with its notion of its want for social management. [Source]
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