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As Bangladesh prepares for its twelfth parliamentary polls on January 7, hypothesis abounds on the influence of the election consequence on Dhaka’s relationship with Delhi. From historic landmarks such because the 2015 land boundary settlement to lows throughout 2001-2006, when a coalition led by the present Opposition social gathering, the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP), was in workplace, India-Bangladesh relations have gone by way of periodical ups and downs. Bangladesh emerged as India’s greatest commerce companion in South Asia crossing $15 billion in 2022 and is a significant recipient of Indian international direct funding, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2021. The strengthening of financial ties highlights pragmatic concerns that transcend political rhetoric and problem simplistic binaries.
The ruling Awami League (AL) in Bangladesh is traditionally perceived as intently aligned with India, whereas the BNP is assumed to harbour anti-India sentiments. A deeper look reveals an intricate tapestry of cooperation and battle underpinning the ties. The extensively held perception that the AL and India share a deep ideological affinity, at occasions oversimplifies a relationship grounded in strategic realities and mutual pursuits.
Dhaka’s collaboration with Delhi in cracking down on insurgents working from Bangladesh, as an illustration, the United Liberation Entrance of Asom (ULFA), is cited as proof of the political alignment of AL with the Indian political institution. Nonetheless, the fact is extra advanced because the Sheikh Hasina authorities confronted challenges from radical Islamist teams like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB). It was a convergence of mutual pursuits, particularly safeguarding the soundness of each the border and inner safety.
Landmark agreements, such because the 2015 land boundary settlement, are indicative of a relationship based on pragmatism fairly than ideological camaraderie. Equally, the coastal transport deal in 2015 opened new sea routes, boosting bilateral commerce volumes, whereas the 2017 worldwide rail hyperlinks deal restored essential railway hyperlinks, bettering general connectivity and commerce relations.
Nonetheless, challenges persist. The Teesta water-sharing settlement stays unresolved, hindered by home opposition in West Bengal. The Tipaimukh Dam undertaking raises Bangladesh’s concern about downstream impacts, with environmental assessments but to allay fears. Border killings, allegedly because of the extreme use of pressure by safety forces, proceed to be a recurring challenge. The AL’s alignment with India, oversimplified as a political and ideological embrace, is in actuality rooted in a realistic understanding of shared strategic pursuits. The complexities of their collaboration, as evidenced by successes in addition to ongoing challenges, underscore the necessity for a extra balanced perspective on this significant relationship in South Asia.
Apprehensions of an anti-India backlash within the occasion of a BNP coming to energy — the BNP has now determined to boycott the elections — are based mostly on historic precedents and nationalistic rhetoric. The BNP’s 2001-2006 time period in workplace noticed an increase in radical Islamist teams like Harkat-ul Jihad and JMB, fostering issues over elevated anti-India assaults and strained bilateral relations. Nonetheless, a nuanced examination unveils complexities because the BNP isn’t a monolithic entity and has each reasonable and hardline factions, with various stances on India. This dynamic is underscored by occasions just like the 2004 arms haul in Chittagong, revealing a large cache of weapons that raised questions on illicit arms trafficking, additional complicating ramifications for regional stability as then Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi alleged that the arms consignment was meant for the separatist ULFA guerillas working within the state.
Throughout an interview in 2014, when requested what she would have carried out in a different way than Sheikh Hasina on relations with India, BNP chief Khaleda Zia stated: “In contrast to the Awami League authorities, I’d have sought mutuality of beneficial properties in our bilateral relations in all areas… A future BNP authorities will encourage higher people-to-people contact… to diversify our relationships and cooperation in all fields”.
Transferring past a simplistic pro- and anti-India binary is crucial in understanding Bangladesh’s political panorama. The AL, regardless of fostering pleasant ties with Delhi, has prioritised Bangladesh’s financial pursuits and welcomed infrastructure initiatives financed by China, India’s foremost regional rival. Equally, the BNP’s sturdy rhetoric is sobered by pragmatic acknowledgement of financial interdependence. Recognising these complexities is important for a greater understanding of the dynamics that form Bangladesh’s political management relations with India.
A basis of clear-eyed, fact-based assessments of one another’s insurance policies and actions is indispensable to bettering Delhi-Dhaka relations. Communication channels partaking varied political events and stakeholders throughout borders may also help dispel misgivings and misperceptions. Shared pursuits in regional commerce, funding, connectivity, power cooperation, local weather resilience, maritime safety, and financial integration ought to function the cornerstone of collaboration. That is an opportune second for the management in each nations to mirror a imaginative and prescient that’s progressive and mutually helpful, recognising the nuanced interaction of financial, strategic, and demographic elements for each India and Bangladesh.
Syed Munir Khasru is chairman of the worldwide suppose tank, The Institute for Coverage, Advocacy, and Governance (IPAG). The views expressed are private
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