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A navy battle between the USA and the Folks’s Republic of China (PRC) would entail escalation dangers that the USA has not significantly thought-about for the reason that Chilly Battle. The authors of this paper take into account how the USA can prevail in a restricted conflict with the PRC whereas avoiding catastrophic escalation.
The authors achieve this by contemplating theories of victory for the USA in a conflict with China. A principle of victory is a causal story about tips on how to defeat an adversary: It identifies the circumstances below which the enemy will admit defeat and descriptions tips on how to form the battle in a approach that creates these circumstances. The authors take into account 5 theories of victory and establish two as most viable: denial (persuading the enemy that it’s unlikely to realize its aims and that additional preventing is not going to reverse this failure) and navy cost-imposition (utilizing navy power to steer the enemy that the prices of constant the conflict outweigh the advantages). The authors keep that denial affords the very best probability for delivering victory whereas avoiding catastrophic escalation, whereas navy cost-imposition has decrease prospects of success and better possibilities for catastrophic escalation.
This analysis was commissioned by the Division of the Air Drive and carried out throughout the Technique and Doctrine Program of RAND Mission AIR FORCE.
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