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The election bugle has been sounded, and with that curtains have formally come down on the second time period of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India. Modi 2.0, which was marked by exceptional successes, additionally confronted many unprecedented challenges in all spheres, particularly on the overseas coverage entrance.
Modi 2.0 was quick paced and eventful, to say the least. Whereas COVID-19 offered a worldwide problem, it was the Chinese language misadventure in jap Ladakh in Might 2020 that has been the overarching level of overseas coverage debate in India over the previous 4 years. In between all this, small pinpricks in relations with neighbors like Nepal and the Maldives saved the pot boiling.
The Russia-Ukraine struggle offered a special type of problem, the place India needed to face up to Western stress in extending assist to Russia and even doing brisk commerce amid Western sanctions. It was in reality throughout this era that India’s onerous diplomacy abilities got here to the fore and the world slowly got here to comprehend the worldwide management place of India. India’s remarkably profitable G-20 presidency in 2023, coupled with its chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO), nearly sealed India’s standing on the world stage.
Hamas’ sudden and brutal terror assault on southern Israel on October 7 got here as a shock, however India as soon as once more skillfully managed a high-quality balancing on this too. The latest assembly between India’s nationwide safety advisor and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 11, hinting at a attainable Indian function in taking part in a peacemaker function the place others have failed, is as soon as once more a testomony to the distinctive management place that India enjoys.
Certainly, if there was one area that stood out in Indian overseas coverage underneath Modi 2.0, it was West Asia. Modi’s outreach towards the area had began early in his first time period, with go to to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in August 2015, the first go to by an Indian prime minister in 34 years. Very early in his second time period, Modi as soon as once more visited the UAE in August 2019, the place he was awarded with the prestigious Zayed Medal for taking part in a “pivotal function” in giving a “massive enhance” to the bilateral strategic ties.
The UAE continued to stay India’s closest associate within the area. As a testomony to that, Modi has visited the UAE seven instances now, most just lately in February this yr, which was his final overseas go to earlier than the elections had been introduced. Each Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ), the president of the UAE, name one another “brother” and share a singular private chemistry. They’ve been key devices in India’s rising strategic convergence with the area.
Strategic Convergence
There’s maybe no different area on this planet with which India enjoys such shut strategic convergence as West Asia. Whereas India had signed a strategic partnership with Oman method again in 2008 and with the UAE in August 2015 throughout Modi’s first go to, the scope and depth of strategic convergence was tremendously enhanced throughout Modi 2.0. Saudi Arabia in October 2019 and Egypt in June 2023 signed strategic partnership agreements with India.
Modi’s go to to Bahrain in August 2019, (the first-ever go to to the nation by any Indian prime minister) and to Qatar in February 2024 additionally added weight to India’s nearer partnership and strategic convergence with the area. Modi’s go to to Qatar occurred a number of days after eight Indian sailors on demise row had been launched by Qatar, a exceptional achievement on condition that only a few months again, even an attraction in Qatari courts seemed unlikely. As well as, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik state go to to India in December 2023, the primary go to of the Omani sultan to India in many years, was a transparent sign of shut strategic convergence.
Even in multilateral boards, convergence between India and the area is clearly seen. On the fifteenth BRICS Summit in South Africa in August 2023, six nations had been included into the grouping: Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Apparently, 4 of those are from the West Asia/North Africa area and India had a big half within the choice. Throughout India’s G-20 presidency, Oman, Egypt, and the UAE had been among the many nations invited as particular company. Through the SCO summit chaired by India, Iran was admitted as a full member whereas Kuwait and the UAE had been ratified as dialogue companions.
Vitality Safety
India has been historically depending on the West Asia area for its power imports, and that side of ties acquired a significant fillip throughout Modi 2.0. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE had been the highest three exporters of crude oil to India over the interval – regardless of Russia rising as a significant market of imports for India as a result of its discounted costs amid the continued struggle in Ukraine.
In January 2017, throughout Modi’s first time period, the UAE turned the primary nation to signal an settlement with India to retailer strategic oil reserves in India. That settlement has been operationalized over the previous six years by storing strategic petroleum reserves in underground caverns in India, made with an preliminary funding of $400 million.
The $78 billion LNG deal signed with Qatar in February 2024, weeks earlier than announcement of elections, assured import of seven.5 million tonnes of LNG a yr for by means of 2048 at “considerably” decrease charges than the earlier deal.
As well as, in July 2023, Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Firm (ADNOC) and Indian Oil signed a long-term LNG contract for 1.2 million metric tons over a interval of 14 years.
Commerce and Investments
India additionally sought to increase financial ties with West Asia past the power sector. The Complete Financial Partnership Settlement (CEPA) signed with the UAE on February 18, 2022, was the most important spotlight. The settlement – developed and agreed upon in a file time of 88 days – goals to considerably enhance commerce and enterprise alternatives and improve bilateral commerce to $115 billion in 5 years. Including to it, throughout Modi’s newest go to to the UAE in February 2024, India additionally accepted the Bilateral Funding Treaty (BIT) with the UAE, which might considerably enhance bilateral financial engagement, particularly manufacturing and overseas direct funding (FDI).
Investments from West Asia into India steadily elevated over the previous years leading to influx of greater than $2.5 billion in FDI in numerous sectors, moreover oil and fuel. The UAE outscored different nations within the area by a large margin. Bilateral commerce stood at $85 billion within the yr 2022-23, making the UAE India’s third-largest buying and selling associate. The UAE can be the fourth-largest total investor in India.
Whereas the UAE dedicated to take a position $75 billion in India, Saudi Arabia pledged an funding of over $100 billion. Qatar too invested considerably; In July 2019 the Qatar Funding Authority (QIA) introduced an funding of $150 million in schooling app Byju and shortly thereafter in December 2019 dedicated $450 million to take a 25 % stake in Adani Electrical energy Mumbai Ltd.
With Modi pushing for quicker improvement of digital public infrastructure (DPI) in India and within the area, fintech emerged as yet one more space of mutual convergence. The RuPay card was launched within the UAE in August 2019 and from July 2023 onwards, the Indian rupee is being accepted as authorized at Dubai airports. Additionally, India and the UAE operationalized a rupee-dirham settlement system when the Indian Oil Company made the primary rupee cost for crude oil imports in August 2023.
When Oman signed an settlement on fintech cooperation with India in October 2022, it turned the fourth nation within the area after Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE the place India’s Unified Funds Interface (UPI) is accepted for monetary transactions.
Modi 2.0 was additionally very pronounced when it comes to its engagement with Indian diaspora in West Asia. Each go to by Modi to the area drew giant crowds, with the final and most outstanding being the Ahlan Modi occasion in Abu Dhabi on February 13, 2024. The opening of the primary offshore campus of India’s prestigious engineering school, the Indian Institute of Expertise, in Abu Dhabi and the just lately inaugurated BAPS Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi too had been clear indicators of India’s funding in people-to-people ties with the UAE.
Protection and Safety
Safety cooperation with West Asia was one of many key success areas throughout Modi 2.0. Regardless of quite a few protection cooperation agreements signed previously, there was not a lot of traction on this sphere of cooperation beforehand.
Oman – which signed a protection cooperation settlement with India in November 2008 – has been a frontrunner in safety cooperation. Oman is the first West Asian nation to carry joint workout routines with all three branches of India’s protection forces. Cooperation primarily based on the MoU on army cooperation facilitating provision of logistical amenities to the Indian Navy within the port of Duqm took form on this interval and gives vital benefit to the Indian Navy in its operations within the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and even Pink Sea. It additionally permits India to maintain a discreet watch on the rising naval exercise of the Chinese language Individuals’s Liberation Military-Navy (PLAN) within the area.
Safety cooperation with the UAE additionally took concrete form throughout Modi’s second time period. In March 2021, an Indian Air Drive (IAF) contingent participated for the primary time in Train Desert Flag–VI, an annual train hosted by the UAE. The primary version of joint army train Desert Cyclone was held in January 2024 within the deserts of Rajasthan. There have additionally been some reviews within the media on the UAE expressing curiosity within the buy of Helina, Nag, and BrahMos missiles from India.
With Saudi Arabia, protection cooperation was kick-started after signing a strategic partnership settlement in 2019. In August 2021 the first-ever bilateral naval train between India and Saudi Arabia – Al Mohed Al Hindi 2021 – was performed in Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia. In February 2022, Saudi Arabia was one of many 46 nations invited to the Indian Navy’s Milan Train, and the primary version of India-Saudi Arabia joint army train Sada Tanseeq was held within the deserts of Rajasthan in January-February 2024. There have additionally been some reviews that Saudi Arabia has proven curiosity in buy of the BrahMos missile system too.
With Egypt, an MoU on protection cooperation was signed throughout Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s go to to Egypt in September 2022 and cooperation has picked up tempo since then. Egypt is among the six nations focused on India’s Tejas plane. Egypt has additionally reportedly proven curiosity in shopping for BrahMos missiles.
With Qatar, the main focus has been on naval cooperation and customised programs for Qatari officers. There was vital progress on protection and safety cooperation with different nations within the area too. There was vital progress on intelligence sharing, particularly on counterterrorism. House cooperation too is rising as a key space of strategic cooperation.
Conclusion
If Modi 1.0 may very well be summarized as “Suppose West,” Modi 2.0 was undoubtedly “Act West.” India and West Asia have come a great distance in revitalizing a moderately stagnant relationship previously few years. Modi’s private rapport with the management within the area has been a significant contributing issue.
As India grows into a significant financial, political and army energy, West Asia kinds a vital a part of India’s world matrix. From a strategic viewpoint due to this fact, India has important curiosity in area’s peace, stability, and safety, to make sure nearer integration.
The 8.5 million Indian expatriate group, by means of their self-discipline and onerous work, have additionally contributed immensely to India’s rising ties with the area. Acknowledging this, Modi had described the area as “residence away from residence” whereas addressing the Indian diaspora within the UAE in 2018. The 2 areas could also be separated by the Arabian Sea however are joined by historical past, future, belief, and rising brotherhood.
Because the curtains come down on Modi 2.0, most analysts count on that the subsequent authorities will certainly be Modi 3.0. Affirmation must wait till India’s election outcomes are introduced on June 4, 2024. But when Modi is certainly re-elected, we are able to count on that his authorities will do extra to combine India with the area.
There’s additionally hope that the few outliers like Kuwait would entice nearer engagement and nations north of the Persian Gulf – i.e., Iran and Iraq – too would witness renewed focus and nearer strategic engagement.
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