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On April 22, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walked to RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav’s home in Patna to attend an Iftar. The primary go to of the JDU chief to the ten, Round Highway bungalow of his ally-turned-rival in 5 years triggered hypothesis of a political realignment. Particularly when it’s being assumed that the senior and dominant ruling coalition associate, the BJP, now needs its personal CM within the state.
The following day, Nitish Kumar mentioned iftar and politics should not related and went smiling to Patna airport with a pink bouquet to obtain Union house minister Amit Shah who was in Bihar to attend an occasion. This raised some eyebrows as protocol didn’t demand this courtesy.
Then, on April 26, Bihar RJD president Jagdanand Singh requested Nitish Kumar to merge the JDU along with his celebration and stop as CM, a suggestion that adopted the Opposition celebration’s declare that most of the CM’s MLAs have been in contact with it.
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JDU spokesperson Ajay Alok countered him by saying Nitish Kumar would by no means settle for Tejashwi Yadav’s management. Bihar BJP chief Sanjay Jaiswal, on his half, mentioned Nitish Kumar will stay the CM until the subsequent state meeting election in 2025. Nitish Kumar’s good friend, senior BJP chief and former Bihar Deputy CM Sushil Modi has additionally mentioned the identical, calling talks of the JDU chief’s ouster the Opposition’s propaganda.
However Nitish Kumar was once more to see Tejashwi Yadav and different RJD leaders at a JDU-hosted Iftar in Patna on Thursday, their second assembly in six days. That is on a day RJD patriarch and Tejashwi Yadav’s father, Lalu Prasad, was anticipated to return out of jail as the previous Bihar CM was prone to be granted bail in fodder rip-off instances.
A Narendra Modi critic-turned-BJP ally, Nitish Kumar has made gorgeous switches for energy prior to now. Whereas ruling Bihar with the BJP, he stop the NDA and tied up with the RJD. Then he abandoned the RJD and went again to the BJP-led coalition.
All these developments are coming towards the backdrop of Nitish Kumar’s cryptic comment that he has been a member of each Homes of the state Legislature and the Lok Sabha, and a time period within the Rajya Sabha would full his political journey.
The nation’s Vice-President is the chairperson of the Rajya Sabha. So, does Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving CM who has been in energy for 15 years, wish to change into the Vice-President? Or is the President’s publish? Elections to those essential constitutional posts will happen in a couple of months.
‘NITISH EYEING DELHI’
Senior Bihar journalist Kanhaiya Bhelari, who has recognized Nitish Kumar personally for years, advised IndiaToday.in that the Bihar CM undoubtedly needs to maneuver to Delhi.
“He is aware of that after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP received’t let him stay Bihar’s CM. He’s on the lookout for an honourable exit. However the BJP additionally is aware of that going into the 2024 Lok Sabha polls with out Nitish Kumar will ship the unsuitable socio-political message, and the celebration could should pay electoral prices. So, it is perhaps a dignified compromise.”
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Kanhaiya Bhelari mentioned Nitish Kumar is eyeing the President’s publish, one thing the BJP is in no way eager on.
“The precise bargaining might nicely be for the Vice-President’s publish. Attending Iftar events could possibly be a part of his acquainted strain techniques.”
‘BJP WANTS ITS CM’
DM Diwakar, who carefully tracks Bihar’s politics, additionally mentioned that the BJP needs its CM in Bihar and attending Iftar events is Nitish Kumar’s approach of countering this strain.
“Nitish Kumar needs to convey that he has choices. He used this tactic by flaunting his BJP possibility when working his authorities with the RJD and dealing with transfer-posting pressures from his ally,” DM Diwakar advised IndiaToday.in.
There may be additionally a buzz that Nitish Kumar could hobnob with the Opposition for the President’s publish. CPI chief D Raja has indicated if Nitish Kumar quits the NDA, he is perhaps thought of the Opposition’s candidate for the President’s publish. Is Nitish Kumar urgent for a constitutional publish if he vacates the CM’s chair?
“The publish of President or Vice-President is essential for central laws enterprise. Individuals are pliable until they don’t have immunity. Nitish has been BJP’s good friend for a very long time and is aware of its flaws nicely,” DM Diwakar mentioned.
A Governor’s publish could also be a part of a compromise components however Nitish Kumar could not like that after being CM for therefore lengthy.
“There may be additionally a buzz that Nitish Kumar needs to be projected because the Opposition’s prime ministerial candidate in 2024. However he doesn’t have the vitality left for these sorts of political struggles. Extra importantly, he lacks the enchantment. Age isn’t on his aspect both,” Kanhaiya Bhelari mentioned.
Bihar watchers additionally say that the BJP is aware of there will probably be infighting within the celebration, and even within the JDU, as soon as Nitish leaves the NDA. And this would possibly assist Tejashwi Yadav change into the CM.
“As it’s, a brand new social equation is perhaps rising in Bihar. The Bochaha bypoll is a wake-up name for the BJP. The RJD received the seat with the help of upper-caste voters. Upsetting Nitish at this stage will probably be BJP’s political immaturity,” DM Diwakar mentioned.
Then what to make of Nitish Kumar’s clarification that he doesn’t wish to change into a Rajya Sabha MP?
“Sushil Modi represents a powerful faction of BJP. What he’s saying is, it’s vital to maintain Nitish in Bihar. A Rajya Sabha seat isn’t a part of the dialogue with the BJP anyway. Nitish Kumar can change into a member of Parliament’s Higher Home on his personal; for that, he doesn’t want a cope with BJP,” DM Diwakar mentioned.
BIHAR’S POLITICAL CHURNING
One other eager Bihar watcher, NK Chaudhary, admitted there may be undoubtedly a political churning in Bihar.
“The previous scenario now not exists. Nitish Kumar is having rounds of conferences in his turf of Badh-Nalanda-Bakhtiyarpur the place he’s assembly previous buddies. It’s like a thanksgiving train. He has additionally modified his home, citing the renovation of the CM residence. He went to Lalu Prasad’s home for Iftar after a few years. The physique language was completely different,” NK Chaudhary advised IndiaToday.in.
Consultants really feel the way in which Nitish Kumar went to obtain Amit Shah says quite a bit. “I feel Nitish Kumar has outlived his utility. His reputation is reducing. He’s dealing with protests and random assaults. Age isn’t on his aspect,” NK Chaudhary mentioned.
However the BJP additionally doesn’t wish to alienate him. “By no means. The issue is, Nitish Kumar can’t be relied upon with the President’s publish. He has misplaced reliability even among the many Opposition. The Vice-President’s publish can also be troublesome except it’s a make-or-break scenario. That’s why he’s giving combined alerts,” NK Chaudhary mentioned.
However can Nitish Kumar actually afford to ditch the BJP yet another time and ally with the RJD? “Unlikely. Iftars are his strain tactic. Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as a pacesetter. He received’t belief Nitish Kumar and make him CM,” NK Chaudhary mentioned.
Nonetheless, some observers really feel that within the worst-case state of affairs, Nitish Kumar could let Tejashwi Yadav be the CM if there may be an excessive amount of strain from the BJP.
Senior Bihar politician and Rajya Sabha member Shivanand Tiwari, who has labored with each Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, mentioned some BJP members tried to needle Nitish Kumar prior to now however quickly, a route got here from Delhi and every part was settled.
“However Nitish Kumar is giving conflicting alerts. A day after the Iftar, he went to obtain Amit Shah who isn’t PM, President or Vice-President. If M Venkaiah Naidu turns into President, there will probably be a emptiness for the Vice-President’s publish. Nitish Kumar could also be eyeing that. However nothing is apparent to me as of now,” Shivanand Tiwari advised IndiaToday.in.
As for {qualifications}, Nitish Kumar has a confirmed monitor report of being a superb administrator. He nonetheless has management over Bihar’s paperwork.
“It’s extraordinary to have been working Bihar for 15 years with only a 3% of social base. However the actual tragedy is, amid all this, Nitish Kumar is unable to carry out the way in which he did earlier. There are fewer critiques, new schemes and improvements. Corruption is rising. ATMs and iron bridges are being stolen,” DM Diwakar mentioned.
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