Can the Arakan Army achieve its confederacy dream?

The AA’s demand for confederacy standing appears a bridge too far for both the Nationwide Unity Authorities or the junta, however the group says it can obtain its aim via any means obligatory.

By KYAW HSAN HLAING

Greater than a 12 months for the reason that army seized energy in Myanmar, anti-coup resistance teams and their ethnic armed organisation allies proceed to struggle the junta with no victory in sight for both facet. The army regime has been unable to crush the opposition or to take full management of administrative mechanisms in lots of elements of the nation. However resistance teams have additionally been unable to overthrow the junta or absolutely expel it from their territory.

Few elements might break the deadlock of the continued civil struggle greater than the doorway of the Arakan Military – one of many nation’s strongest ethnic armed teams. The AA fought a brutal two-year struggle with the army earlier than agreeing to a casual ceasefire months earlier than the February 2021 coup. And whereas many proceed to hope the group will throw its weight behind the broader pro-democracy motion, the query stays: which facet can provide the AA what it actually needs?

When the 2015 elections vaulted Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the Nationwide League for Democracy into energy, there have been excessive hopes regardless of the 2008 military-drafted structure requiring a power-sharing association with the army. There have been expectations that the NLD would counter the army’s affect and champion democracy, human rights, and self-determination for ethnic states. For a lot of ethnic individuals, particularly in Rakhine, these expectations have been in tatters lengthy earlier than the coup.

Regardless of profitable essentially the most seats in Rakhine State, the NLD refused to permit the Arakan Nationwide Occasion (ANP) to decide on the state’s chief minister, a transfer that might have represented a key dedication to federalist reform. In 2020, the NLD vetoed a constitutional modification that might have codified such a coverage, and in 2021 was poised to once more impose its personal chief ministers on states the place it was much less standard, together with Rakhine.

Rakhine individuals additionally felt that the NLD explicitly sided with the army in the course of the struggle with the AA, even because the United Nations particular rapporteur accused the army of struggle crimes and crimes in opposition to humanity. The NLD administration agreed to impose what was on the time the world’s longest web shutdown, labeled the AA a terrorist organisation, and canceled elections in giant swathes of Rakhine State.

Having been burned by the NLD, the AA has embraced the “Means of Rakhita” – a wrestle for liberation and sovereignty characterised by working independently of Myanmar’s nationwide politics.

In January 2019, the AA commander-in-chief Main Basic Twan Mrat Naing declared his dedication to attaining “confederation” standing for the individuals of Rakhine, pointing to the Wa Self-Administered Division for instance. It is a step past the federalist system most different ethnic teams aspire to, because the United Wa State Military runs an nearly solely autonomous enclave in Myanmar.

Taking part in either side

The AA has discouraged mass protests in opposition to the coup, and Rakhine State has remained comparatively peaceable at the same time as different elements of the nation are gripped by violence. Intense combating has damaged out in Chin, Kayah, Kayin and Kachin states and Sagaing and Magway areas. The Help Affiliation for Political Prisoners mentioned army crackdowns have killed over 1,700 civilians, together with many unarmed protesters who have been slaughtered in main city centres like Yangon, Mandalay and Bago.

Ethnic armed teams together with the AA condemned the coup and violence in opposition to civilians. However whereas some main teams, just like the Kachin Independence Military and Karen Nationwide Union, have absolutely joined with the resistance, the AA nonetheless hesitates to decide to open warfare in opposition to the junta.

As an alternative, the AA’s political wing, the United League of Arakan, has taken benefit of the truth that the army has been distracted by uprisings throughout the nation to consolidate its energy. The group claimed in August final 12 months that it had administrative management over two-thirds of the state, formalising its personal taxation and judicial techniques.

For the junta’s half, it appears eager to keep away from antagonising the AA whereas it offers with a nationwide revolt. As a part of its appeasement technique, the web blackout was lifted and the AA was eliminated from the record of terrorist organisations after the coup. Many political prisoners linked to the AA have been launched, together with Twan Mrat Naing’s brother, Aung Mrat Kyaw. 

Whereas the general public in Rakhine welcomed these steps, many from the Bamar majority accused the AA of collaborating with the junta. From the attitude of many in Rakhine, nevertheless, the NLD and its supporters had spent the earlier 5 years collaborating with the army at their expense.

The Nationwide Unity Authorities, the civilian cupboard appointed by lawmakers elected within the annulled 2020 polls, has additionally taken steps to entice the AA. The administration held casual talks with the armed group thrice within the first 12 months after the coup. However a supply inside the NUG instructed me the administration was unable to decide to granting the AA confederacy standing in Rakhine State.

The NUG could also be anxious that different ethnic armed teams would demand comparable remedy, precipitating a long-feared nationwide disintegration into a number of ethnic micro-states.

The NUG appears to be hoping to prioritise overthrowing the junta first, saving political commitments for later. However this technique doesn’t enchantment to ethnic armed organisations, a few of which supported pro-democracy actions prior to now, solely to really feel betrayed when the NLD got here to energy.

Whereas the AA will not be absolutely cooperating with the NUG, it’s more and more brazenly serving to to coach and arm sure resistance teams. On the AA’s thirteenth anniversary, 5 anti-coup armed teams expressed their gratitude for the AA’s help. The AA and its allies additionally expressed support for the Bamar Folks’s Liberation Military, an anti-coup armed group based by poet Maung Saungkha, who was as soon as arrested for protesting in opposition to the web shutdown in Rakhine. On April 26, the Mindat Township department of the Chinland Defence Pressure launched footage of recruits coming back from coaching with the AA.

Earlier this month, coup chief Min Aung Hlaing invited ethnic armed organisations to peace talks, providing to fulfill with representatives personally. He excluded the NUG and anti-coup armed teams often known as Folks’s Defence Forces, each of which have been labeled terrorist organisations.

It stays to be seen whether or not the AA will settle for this invitation. Whereas the group stays sceptical of military-led peacekeeping initiatives, it did ship a delegation to attend the junta’s Union Day celebrations and peace talks in February.

No price ticket on liberation

Since November of final 12 months, sporadic small-scale clashes have damaged out between the AA and the junta in Maungdaw Township, elevating fears concerning the stability of the casual ceasefire. The army probably believed it might have crushed anti-coup resistance by now, permitting it to once more shift focus to Rakhine State. However the surprising degree of opposition has left the junta with its palms full elsewhere.

Because the AA expands its management over Rakhine, the army will not be keen to sit down and watch as all the state slips out of its grasp. However makes an attempt to take again management of Rakhine might stretch the army past its capabilities, risking shedding management of the nation within the course of.

It’s unlikely that the AA might obtain the confederacy standing it wishes via negotiations with the army, which has a protracted historical past of breaking guarantees. If the AA have been to obtain such a dedication from the junta, it might solely imply something if the group might defend its territory with armed power if obligatory.

On a number of events, the AA has made it clear there’s little room for compromise. Throughout an internet press convention on March 5, a spokesperson mentioned if Rakhine can’t obtain the political standing it needs inside the union of Myanmar, “we should create it ourselves”. He added that the AA will “proceed to construct our authorities and our future nation-state in partnership with the worldwide group”.

In an interview with the US Based mostly Arakka Media on August 15 of final 12 months, Twan Mrat Naing had a equally clear message.

“We by no means had a price ticket in making an attempt to wrestle again our misplaced sovereignty for the Arakan individuals,” he mentioned. “There is not going to be sooner or later, both.”

This leaves the AA with two choices. Throw its weight behind the NUG and different allied armed teams, however solely with the assure of confederacy; or sit out the present battle and proceed reinforcing its administrative management and fortifying its defences, in order that if and when combating does return to Rakhine, it’s well-positioned to restrict injury and emerge victorious.

With the NUG reluctant to grant confederacy standing, and the AA hoping to keep away from having Rakhine ravaged by struggle but once more, it comes as little shock that to this point, the group is pursuing the second path.