Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing, Russia’s Putin and Their Ilk Must Not Prevail

By Aung Zaw 1 March 2022

The generals who’ve engaged in brutal atrocities and utilized a scorched earth technique in Myanmar will certainly be following the information from Ukraine intently. The instant query that arises is, do they need Russian President Vladimir Putin and his invading military to succeed? Maybe.

Because the invasion of Ukraine was starting, Myanmar, a member of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), sounded decidedly out of step with the remainder of the world when a spokesperson for Myanmar’s army council voiced help for Putin’s aggression, providing two causes.

“No. 1 is that Russia has labored to consolidate its sovereignty,” he stated. “I believe that is the appropriate factor to do. No. 2 is to indicate the world that Russia is a world energy.”

In fact, that is rubbish. The junta’s fast present of help for Russia’s aggression is hardly shocking; Russia is a significant provider of army {hardware} to the regime, and enhanced military-to-military ties have been cemented for the reason that coup.

Moscow despatched a high-level army delegation led by Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu to Myanmar two weeks earlier than final 12 months’s coup. Moscow knew of the coup prematurely and promised to produce arms, coaching, {hardware} and surveillance expertise to the regime.

Because the coup, the 2 sides have exchanged quite a few visits. Certainly, the connection has grown worryingly heat. Nevertheless, this Russia-Myanmar friendship doesn’t embody the Myanmar individuals.

For his or her half, the oppressed individuals of Myanmar detest each Russia and China, and whoever else helps the regime.

On March 27 final 12 months, the regime celebrated Armed Forces Day, which traditionally has marked the day the individuals took up arms in opposition to the occupying Japanese within the Nineteen Forties. On the identical day, the regime’s forces slaughtered greater than 100 individuals throughout the nation, making it the bloodiest single day for the reason that generals seized energy lower than two months earlier. By that time, the worldwide neighborhood together with most Western nations had lengthy since condemned the army regime, however Russian Deputy Protection Minister Colonel Common Alexander Vasilyevich Fomin selected to journey to Naypyitaw to attend the 76th annual Armed Forces Day commemorations.

Quickly residents, farmers, schoolteachers and youngsters had been bearing the brunt as Russian-made jet fighters and helicopters had been deployed to drop bombs and fireplace missiles and machine weapons at them. Many have died for the reason that regime launched a brutal conflict in opposition to its personal individuals.

Not solely Russian but additionally Chinese language-made weapons have killed many harmless individuals in Myanmar. They, too, are implicated within the post-coup human tragedy in Myanmar.

Like Putin and his military, Min Aung Hlaing and his troopers behave like international invaders, however they accomplish that in their very own nation. The regime faces sturdy resistance, encountering many type of protest in addition to armed riot throughout the nation.

A 12 months after trying to stage a coup, the Myanmar regime nonetheless doesn’t management the nation or the individuals.

Did Min Aung Hlaing underestimate the Myanmar individuals?

Since Russia launched its invasion, Ukraine’s individuals have displayed nice bravery. This has been nicely famous within the worldwide neighborhood; the response from the West has been powerful and Russia is being reduce out of the worldwide monetary system.

Each Senior Common Min Aung Hlaing and Putin have underestimated the individuals they search to subdue, and the resistance to their aggression. Ought to Putin fail to say management over Ukraine, Min Aung Hlaing’s “grand technique” of bringing Russia into Myanmar’s political panorama after the takeover will appear as delusional as his coup plan itself.

He should be apprehensive. Days after the invasion of Ukraine, after the spokesman expressed the regime’s stance in help of Moscow, prime brass in Myanmar held a gathering to debate the disaster in Ukraine and its affect on and penalties for Myanmar. The generals are apprehensive in regards to the West’s monetary sanctions—Myanmar’s arms sellers have financial institution accounts in Russia—and the availability of {hardware} will gradual. Because the coup, the West, together with the US and the EU, has imposed stiff sanctions on the Myanmar army, state-owned firms and enterprise cronies of the regime, however extra must be completed.

On the assembly, it’s understood that the generals had been additionally inquisitive about China’s place on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Particulars are sketchy nevertheless it appears they had been principally desirous about China’s strategic targets, and the way they—and future China-Myanmar relations—is likely to be impacted if Russia botches its invasion of Ukraine.

In its public pronouncements, the Chinese language authorities has urged all sides to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine.

Because the army takeover in Myanmar on Feb. 1, China has repeatedly insisted that the armed forces’ seizure of energy from the democratically elected authorities is Myanmar’s inside affair, together with on the UN Safety Council (UNSC) and at Human Rights Council conferences. The Myanmar individuals dislike China and its stance towards the coup, simply as they dislike Russia for a similar cause. Because the coup, China has confronted large anti-China protests in Myanmar and boycotts of Chinese language merchandise.

China-backed factories in Myanmar have been torched and threats in opposition to China-backed fuel pipelines issued. Beijing has voiced critical concern over the safety of its pipelines; anti-junta teams in Myanmar have countered by saying that whether or not or not they’re blown up is an “inside affair”, mocking China’s personal rationale for blocking different nations’ makes an attempt on the UN to sentence the army takeover.

Within the meantime, the generals are prone to beef up safety for Chinese language pursuits and tasks in Myanmar, and Min Aung Hlaing will do no matter is critical to accommodate each Russia and China. On the finish of the day, his goal is to rule the nation together with his blood-soaked palms, and he’ll make buddies with both Russia or China as a way to obtain this.

There may be some satisfaction at stake for Min Aung Hlaing in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: The overall desires to indicate the individuals of Myanmar, and particularly his opponents, that his allies are winners. If issues go badly for Putin, the Myanmar individuals will really feel vindicated and Min Aung Hlaing and his hardline thugs will really feel they’ve connected themselves to the shedding aspect.

Because the coup, Myanmar has shortly descended into chaos. Because the human and financial prices of the lengthy and bloody coup try mount it’s going to solely grow to be harder for the regime to exert management and consolidate its grip on the nation.

Min Aung Hlaing’s regime sees Myanmar’s residents as enemies; subsequently, its coup has failed. Missing legitimacy, the regime in Myanmar right now is a pariah. If murderer-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing and his army are allowed to win, the Myanmar individuals will perpetually stay slaves, topic to tyranny.

Darkish days lie forward for each Ukraine and Myanmar. The resistance in Ukraine has already earned the admiration of your entire world, simply because the efforts of Myanmar’s numerous resistance forces, together with teams engaged in armed riot, have stunned many at residence and overseas.

Figuring out they might be fired upon, a bunch of Ukrainian troopers guarding a army facility on Snake Island within the Black Sea informed a Russian warship to “go fuck your self”. In Myanmar final 12 months, protesters, confronted with rows of troopers and tanks, exclaimed: “Fuck the coup!”

We can not enable Min Aung Hlaing or Putin to succeed, or let one really feel vindication within the success of the opposite.

You may additionally like these tales:

Myanmar in Revolt as Folks Select to Combat the Brutal Regime

Will ASEAN Invite Myanmar’s Conflict Criminals to Its Summit?

Myanmar Junta Boss Min Aung Hlaing’s Delusions of Grandeur