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Ayman al-Zawahiri’s loss of life throughout a US drone strike has raised questions on who will exchange him as al Qaeda’s chief.
Whereas the fear group is just not with out its contenders, its ranks are thinner and extra geographically dispersed than they had been 10 or 20 years in the past.
That is what we learn about who may very well be the following chief of al Qaeda.
The person indicated by many analysts to be Zawahiri’s successor is Saif al-Adel, a former Egyptian commando who is without doubt one of the final survivors of al Qaeda’s “founding technology” and has spent a lot of the previous twenty years in Iran.
Adel was a loyal servant of Osama bin Laden earlier than serving as al Qaeda’s interim chief in 2011. He organized the succession course of in Zawahiri’s favor as a result of that was bin Laden’s want, though Adel himself may need been a simpler possibility. as competitors for the expansion of ISIS within the following years.
Saif al-Adel is his nom de guerre, which interprets to Sword of Justice. That isn’t the one thriller about this man.
There are solely a few alleged pictures of him. It’s stated that he faked his loss of life when he was 20 years outdated. His scenario in Iran has additionally not been fully clear: generally detained, generally beneath home arrest, generally launched.
Ali Soufan, a former FBI particular agent and writer of “Anatomy of Terror: From the Loss of life of bin Laden to the Rise of the Islamic State,” describes Adel as the last word insider, somebody nicely related in lots of international locations and a crafty navy man. tactical. For a lot of his grownup life he has lived and breathed al Qaeda.
Soufan just lately wrote within the Counter Terrorism Middle’s Sentinel journal that Adel performed “a central position in daring assaults from the ‘Black Hawk Down’ incident in Somalia to the bombings of US embassies in East Africa and the suicide assault on the destroyer USS Cole”.
“When he performs, he performs with ruthless effectivity,” Soufan added. “Above all, he’s a pragmatist, a person who would have identified that, regardless of the abhorrent necessity of residing beneath an anathema from the [Shia] authorities for Sunnis [al Qaeda], their finest likelihood of survival and due to this fact continued effectiveness in jihad, lay in a return to Iran.
Soufan additionally notes that al-Adel was a mentor to the chief of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whose group later morphed into ISIS.
“Saif as emir would take pleasure in a uncommon alternative to attract some former Islamic State members again [to al Qaeda],” suggests Soufan.
The aspirants of the African branches
A UN professional report earlier this 12 months argued that different al Qaeda management candidates had been members of the group’s sturdy African branches.
He talked about three doable candidates moreover al-Adel: Abdal-Rahman al-Maghrebi; Yazid Mebrak, head of al Qaeda within the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Ahmed Diriye, chief of Shabaab in Somalia.
With Maghrebi, so to talk, all the things would keep within the household, since he’s Zawahiri’s son-in-law. However he’s a Moroccan in a corporation traditionally dominated by Saudis and Egyptians.
He was thought-about a Specifically Designated World Terrorist by the US State Division final 12 months and described because the “longtime director” of As Sahab, al Qaeda’s media operation. He’s 52 years outdated.
In paperwork uncovered at bin Laden’s Pakistani hideout, one other senior al Qaeda determine stated Maghrebi “has excessive morals, can hold a secret and is affected person. His ideology is prudent and he has a superb conscience.”
Mebrak, an Algerian, grew to become the chief of AQIM in 2020. He’s also called Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-Anabi.
In appointing him, the State Division stated that he “was anticipated to play a task within the world administration of al Qaeda,” as was his predecessor as chief of AQIM.
He’s a veteran of jihad within the Sahel, the place al Qaeda and ISIS teams vie for superiority.
One other department that has survived regardless of the perfect efforts of the US and a multinational drive from East Africa is al Shabaab in Somalia. He has been liable to inside rifts and his fortunes have modified loads, however he has survived the problem of the fledgling ISIS.
Diriye has been its chief since 2014, a time period of unlikely longevity. Shabaab and al Qaeda have been linked for a decade and Diriye was fast to pledge allegiance to Zawahiri when he grew to become chief.
For al Qaeda, the appointment of a frontrunner from Africa can be a cultural leap. Some former al Qaeda members say senior Egyptian and Saudi figures throughout the group typically seemed down on African branches.
Al Qaeda has had solely two leaders and the present standing of its governing Shura (council), which performed a key position in Zawahiri’s election, is troublesome to discern. When Zawahiri was chosen, he had already been anointed by bin Laden as his successor, nevertheless it nonetheless took a while to acquire the “bayat” (oath of allegiance) from distant council members. The principle assumption amongst analysts is that members of the Shura could start within the coming weeks to declare the bayat to the third chief of al Qaeda.
However the subject of potential contenders has shrunk over time, particularly with the loss of life of bin Laden’s son Hamza and the killing in Iran of one other main al Qaeda determine, Mohammed al Masri.
Al Qaeda’s management within the Arabian Peninsula, primarily based in Yemen, has additionally been decimated by US and Saudi operations.
Can al Qaeda reinvent itself?
But there could also be alternatives for al Qaeda to reinvent itself, whether or not Adel turns into the following chief or al Qaeda turns to the following technology of battle-hardened African jihadis.
The UN panel of consultants on worldwide terrorism believes that “the worldwide context is favorable for [al Qaeda], which seeks to be acknowledged once more because the chief of worldwide jihad.”
As ISIS has declined within the Center East (though it retains a lethal presence by way of its African associates and has survived in components of Syria and Iraq) “[al Qaeda’s] propaganda is now higher developed to compete with ISIL [ISIS]. ] as the important thing actor inspiring the worldwide risk,” the UN consultants concluded.
Inside Afghanistan, al Qaeda’s predominant presence has been within the south and east, although UN consultants famous that it could be searching for to ascertain a presence in western provinces bordering Iran.
Al Qaeda is just not with out mates inside Afghanistan, past its lengthy historic ties to the Haqqani Community, a robust actor throughout the Taliban regime. Its associates in Central Asia, such because the Turkistan Islamic Get together, additionally keep a presence.
It appears seemingly that no matter who succeeds Zawahiri, the group’s management will proceed to have its middle of gravity in Afghanistan so long as the Taliban rule the nation, even when lots of their operations happen 1000’s of miles away.
The successor’s activity can be to revive the group’s relevance whereas tapping into disparate franchises throughout Asia, Africa and the Center East, and maybe encourage a brand new technology to hold out assaults on his behalf in Western cities.
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