ADB forecast for Brunei unchanged

Azlan Othman

The Asian Growth Financial institution (ADB) mentioned Brunei Darussalam’s financial development forecast subsequent yr is 3.6 per cent, which is unchanged from their earlier projection in April on the idea that crude oil costs will stay elevated within the medium time period.

In its newest financial outlook printed not too long ago, ADB mentioned the Sultanate’s gross home product (GDP) development this yr is projected at 2.2 per cent in comparison with their earlier forecast in April of 4.2 per cent.

Progress in 2023 may even be supported by the development of the second part of Hengyi Industries Sdn Bhd’s oil refinery and petrochemical venture.

ADB added that the worldwide financial impression of the Ukraine battle and ongoing international provide chain disruptions pushed the Sultanate’s headline inflation price to three.9 per cent in April, its highest since 1995. In Might, the speed eased to three.8 per cent.

ADB additionally mentioned dangers to the outlook are pretty evenly balanced. An unanticipated disruption to grease and fuel output is the primary draw back danger that would delay Brunei’s restoration. Persistently excessive inflation expectations might dampen home demand and a rebound in financial exercise apart from the oil and fuel sector. An upside danger is one other surge in oil and fuel costs attributable to the conflict in Ukraine intensifying.

The report mentioned the Sultanate’s financial system contracted by 4.2 per cent within the first quarter (Q1) of 2022, the sixth consecutive quarter of unfavourable development. The slowdown displays a nine-per-cent decline in oil and fuel output due to upkeep work.

Financial exercise normalised in different sectors within the absence of tight COVID-19 restrictions, regardless of a surge in circumstances earlier this yr. Because of this, sectors apart from the oil and fuel expanded by one per cent in Q1, though the efficiency throughout sectors was combined.

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by one per cent; companies elevated by simply 0.4 per cent. Providers have been marked by a rebound in transportation and lodging, however finance, communication, and eating places dragged sector development.