Price Monitoring for Food Security in the Kyrgyz Republic, Issue # 60 | 07 October 2022 – Kyrgyzstan

State of affairs Replace In accordance with the most recent cell vulnerability evaluation carried out by UN WFP in August 2022, 21 p.c of the nation’s inhabitants is meals insecure. The very best ranges of meals insecurity have been present in Osh сity (33 p.c) and in Jalal-Abad province (30 p.c). Excessive inflation and rising poverty ranges because of meals disaster could push extra households to resorting to meals and asset depletion coping methods, particularly in southern provinces, the place livelihoods are significantly fragile as a consequence of excessive dependence on remittances from the Russian Federation and border conflicts. Nonetheless, there are optimistic indicators within the agriculture sector in comparison with the earlier 12 months, together with some enhancements within the availability and manufacturing of socially important meals commodities. In accordance with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), from January to September 2022, the self-sufficiency of staple meals has improved (because of the enhance in native manufacturing) by 20 p.c for bread merchandise, 103 p.c for potatoes, 68 p.c for greens, 35 p.c for meat, 24 p.c for milk and dairy merchandise, 14 p.c for sugar and 15 p.c for vegetable oil.
However the challenges to recuperate from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and international meals crises, in January – September 2022, the Gross Home Product (GDP) of the Kyrgyz Republic elevated by 7.2 p.c, in comparison with the earlier 12 months, including a web 597 billion Kyrgyz Soms (USD 7.3 billion) to the financial system. This enhance was predominantly pushed by the enhancements to the service and trade sectors. Alternatively, in September 2022, annual inflation elevated reaching 15.5 p.c (NBKR) in comparison with September 2021, among the many highest within the EAEU area. Home meals value inflation additionally stays excessive within the Kyrgyz Republic. In January -September 2022, the Shopper Worth Index (CPI) elevated by 18 p.c for staple meals, as in comparison with the identical interval of 2021. The CPI for gas and lubricants is estimated to have elevated by 36 p.c, resulting in a rise in transportation prices, which in flip has affected all different costs. Rising meals and gas costs, mixed with inflation are eroding the buying energy of essentially the most weak to entry a nutritious weight loss plan.
The ban on exports of wheat and sugar expired, and Kazakhstan has restored exports of those merchandise since October 2022. In 2022, a document wheat harvest is predicted within the Russian Federation. But, regardless of the elevated manufacturing and seasonal peak of gross sales often going down in July-August, the Russian Federation continues to export the identical quantity of wheat as in 2021. It’s value noting that export costs for wheat in Russian Federation have fallen to January 2022 ranges. Regardless of the numerous enchancment in agriculture manufacturing, the Kyrgyz Republic imports dependency stays excessive: 25 p.c for wheat, 65 p.c for vegetable oil and 65 p.c for sugar (MoA). Out of the imported wheat, vegetable oil and sugar; 95 p.c, 68 p.c and 10 p.c respectively got here from the Russian Federation in January—August 2022. In September 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture of Kyrgyz Republic launched a draft decision “On the introduction of a short lived ban on the export of sure varieties of agricultural merchandise from the Kyrgyz Republic” for six months. The doc proposes to introduce a short lived ban on the export of wheat and meslin (a combination of wheat and rye to feed the livestock and poultry) outdoors the customs territory of the Eurasian Financial Union. In accordance with the Ministry of Agriculture, the Kyrgyz Republic’s want for grain merchandise for 2022 is estimated at 769,100 tons and roughly 75-80 p.c of the quantity is predicted to be lined by home manufacturing. The Ministry of Agriculture has submitted a draft decision for public dialogue, which states that with the intention to guarantee meals safety, imported cattle is not going to be topic to the worth added tax till December 2023. To stabilise the market and to help native sugar producers, the Authorities has additionally launched Zero VAT for the import of sugar, uncooked sugar and vegetable oil.

Fertilizer costs have been rising sharply worldwide and rising enter prices may influence subsequent season’s harvest, resulting in elevated meals costs within the longer run. The Russian Federation is likely one of the world’s most vital exporters of the three main teams of fertilizers – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, nonetheless, its exports are affected by sanctions (World Financial institution). Globally, fertilizer costs have elevated by 300 p.c in comparison with two years in the past and by round 15 p.c since January 2022, primarily due to surging enter prices, provide disruptions, and export restrictions. The WB predicts that fertilizer costs will keep excessive within the quick and medium time period (at the very least for the subsequent two years), as a consequence of expectations on power costs. That is prone to have main impacts on agriculture and meals manufacturing — and thus meals safety — all over the world and for the Kyrgyz Republic, a rustic closely reliant on imported fertilizers as farmers battle to pay for a key enter and face potential provide chain disruptions. Eradicating the obstacles in relation to the export of Russian fertilizers stays vital. Present restrictions have an effect on 20 p.c of worldwide commerce and threaten greater than 50 p.c of fertilizer provide for twenty-four international locations.

Final 12 months, abnormally excessive temperatures and lack of irrigation water led to considerably decrease yields throughout a number of key crops within the nation: wheat (-42 p.c), barley (-46 p.c), oil crops (-25.4 p.c) and sugar beet (-18 p.c). This 12 months, beneficial climate situations noticed in spring led to a rise within the tempo of spring discipline works; and through June – July months to elevated yields. As of 23 September 2022 in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months, the manufacturing of a number of crops has elevated considerably: two occasions for barley, 1.6 occasions for wheat, fruit crops by 5 p.c and oil crops by 9 p.c. Nonetheless, these will increase are in comparison with the unfavourable 2021 harvest ranges, and thus level at important enhancements and a restoration of wheat and barley manufacturing after abnormally dry situations within the earlier 12 months. Rainfall from October to December 2022 is prone to be barely beneath common (10-40% chance of exceeding the median rainfall) throughout the nation.