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Evaluation
NMSP vice chair Nai Aung Min meets junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.
By The Irrawaddy 27 October 2022
Final yr’s navy takeover of Myanmar sparked a variety of various ideological responses among the many ethnic folks of Mon State, identified regionally as Yamanya. Some Mon opted to cooperate with the junta, whereas others have taken up arms to combat it. And a few merely view the disaster as an influence wrestle amongst Myanmar’s majority Bamar ethnicity.
The Mon have broadly divided into three teams — political allies of the junta, these participating with the junta underneath the Nationwide Ceasefire Settlement, and people preventing the junta each politically and militarily.
Junta allies
Amongst these opting to cooperate with the regime are the Mon Unity Social gathering (MUP), which allied with the junta quickly after the February 2021 coup.
One month earlier than the coup, the MUP was poised to carry talks with the Nationwide League for Democracy (NLD), which gained the 2020 common election. However the assembly was cancelled after the 2 sides failed to succeed in settlement on the venue.
Quickly after the navy takeover, MUP government committee member Dr. Banyar Aung Moe joined the State Administration Council (SAC), the junta’s governing physique.
Explaining the choice on the time, MUP spokesman Nai Layi Tama informed The Irrawaddy: “Beforehand we selected the trail of confrontation in our combat for a federal Union, however many misplaced their lives and we failed to attain our goal. Now, as we proceed our journey to a federal democratic Union, we don’t need to select a path that ends in bloodshed.”
Nai Layi Tama has himself joined the junta’s administrative physique in Mon State. Nonetheless, some 60 members resigned from the MUP in March final yr over the get together’s resolution to ally with the regime, in line with Mon political circles.
Amongst them was Dr Aung Naing Oo, a distinguished Mon politician who served as deputy speaker of Mon State Parliament.
Some Mon militia teams additionally started collaborating with the junta a couple of yr after the coup.
The Mon Peace Protection Drive (MPDF), which had cut up from the New Mon State Social gathering in 2010 and surrendered to Myanmar navy, introduced on October 10 this yr that it had remodeled itself into native pro-regime militias.
In an announcement, it stated its native militias have been cooperating with junta forces to suppress the specter of “terrorism” – a time period utilized by the junta to explain armed resistance.
A Mon political analyst who requested for anonymity stated Mon militias have lengthy been affiliated with the Myanmar navy and don’t benefit from the help of Mon folks.
“The regime has revived these teams to allow them to say that there are additionally ethnic armed teams that help them [besides those that oppose the regime]. They’ve additionally created such teams prior to now. This time it has achieved so to set off armed battle within the area,” he stated.
Teams in junta peace talks
The New Mon State Social gathering (NMSP), a long-standing ethnic armed group (EAO), has held two rounds of talks with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing up to now.
Established in 1958, the NMSP signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Settlement (NCA) in February 2018. The group is headquartered within the east of Ye Township, and has round 1,500 members, in line with observers.
The NMSP held its first assembly with junta boss in Might this yr in Naypyitaw, and the second on October 11. The NMSP delegation was led by its vice chair Nai Aung Min.
The NMSP reportedly offered Mon teams’ plan to draft a Yamanya Structure, a decision reached on the Mon Nationwide Convention in Might, throughout its first assembly with Min Aung Hlaing. Regime media stories nonetheless made no point out of the draft.
Junta media stated Min Aung Hlaing mentioned establishing a federal Union primarily based on a multi-party democracy that meets the desires of the folks. The junta chief stated that ethnic folks may press to have their calls for met by a nationwide parliament, and people wishing to remain armed may be part of the Myanmar navy or its Border Guard Drive (BGF).
The NMSP then suspended talks after 10 Mon State-based civil society organizations issued a joint assertion calling on it to interrupt off contact with the regime.
However after listening to that EAOs primarily based in northern Myanmar have been holding talks with the regime, the NMSP government committee voted to renew negotiations.
The group stated that through the second assembly it referred to as for a dialogue involving all stakeholders, together with EAOs and detained civilian chief Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
The regime stated the assembly mentioned legislative powers enshrined within the army-drafted 2008 Structure for Union and sub-national parliaments, and post-2020 plans adopted by the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee.
The NMSP stated it had agreed to carry one other spherical of talks as positions expressed by the junta on the assembly weren’t clear.
The NMSP’s assertion following the assembly clearly confirmed it had not reached an settlement with the regime, stated an ethnic affairs analyst primarily based in central Myanmar.
“What Min Aung Hlaing stated is that ethnic folks can both be part of the [junta] navy or flip themselves into BGF in the event that they need to maintain arms. The NMSP clearly bought nothing from the assembly. That’s why it stated it had agreed to carry additional talks. The regime is but to succeed in a brand new settlement with both the NMSP or another group,” he stated.
A Mon affairs analyst added that the NMSP held the talks over concern of navy encroachment by the junta.
“There are not any junta troops round NMSP headquarters however there are tons in Ye Township. So NMSP leaders could also be cautious about attainable navy stress,” he stated.
Teams opposing the regime
In addition to political opposition to the junta, some teams have taken up arms towards the regime in Mon State.
The umbrella for resistance is the Mon State Interim Coordination Committee (MSICC), a member of the Nationwide Unity Consultative Council – the highest-level political coalition opposing the junta.
The MSICC is cooperating with the nationwide council’s mission to draft federal democracy charters.
The MSICC consists of Mon political events, elected lawmakers and civil social organizations working to ascertain a democratic federal Mon State. Its chair is Nai Thuwunna, who additionally serves as labor minister within the parallel civilian Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG).
Nai Kaung Ywut, a retired colonel from the NMSP, serves as deputy protection minister within the NUG, representing the MSICC.
The state additionally has a resistance group, the Mon State Protection Drive (MDSF), working underneath NUG command. The MDSF (North) is energetic in Thaton Township whereas MDSF (South) operates in Ye Township.
The MDSF is engaged in preventing with junta troops in and round Ye Township. There are additionally different native resistance teams preventing regime forces, together with Ye Belu and the Mon State Revolutionary Group.
Most Mon resistance teams are allied to Myanmar’s oldest EAO, the Karen Nationwide Union, which gives them with navy coaching, in line with ethnic affairs analysts.
On October 3, KNU’s Brigade 1 primarily based in Thaton District fashioned a resistance coalition with 24 native Folks’s Protection Forces (PDFs). The resistance coalition consists of PDFs from Paung, Bilin, Thaton and Theinzayat cities in Mon State and can function underneath the direct command of KNU Brigade 1.
In the meantime, one other Mon armed resistance group is presently establishing a base in Mudon and Thanphyuzayat, in line with the ethnic affairs analyst from central Myanmar. Group members are reportedly present process navy coaching underneath the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a navy coalition consisting of the Arakan Military, the Ta’ang Nationwide Liberation, and the Myanmar Nationwide Democratic Alliance Military.
No Unity Amongst Mon Political Organizations
The Yamanya Federal Drive (YFF), an anti-regime group primarily based in Mon State, is sad that the oldest Mon revolutionary group, the NMSP, is engaged in talks with the junta.
“I believe the NMSP is taking a wait-and-see angle because it continues down the NCA path,” a YFF spokesman stated. “My view is the NMSP ought to as a substitute collect Mon revolutionary forces underneath its management. The revolutionary forces would settle for a suggestion of NMSP management. The NMSP ought to undertake particular insurance policies and put together for this,” he stated.
It’s time that Mon folks fought for self-determination relatively than holding talks with a regime that proposes to soak up them into the BGF, he added.
The ethnic affairs analyst from central Myanmar stated Mon political forces are divided over armed resistance towards the regime.
“The MUP is cooperating with the regime, however in truth it consulted the NMPS earlier than deciding to affix the regime. And the views of Buddhist Mon monks, who’re influential figures in Mon political circles, additionally performed an element. They determined to make peace with the regime in the meanwhile. This resolution was made primarily based on the truth that the NMSP is a comparatively small armed group, and there may be nonetheless a must construct unity amongst Mon political forces. And maybe in addition they hope they will receive their rights on the [negotiating] desk whereas the SAC is confronted with political disaster,” stated the analyst.
It’s not simply Mon political organizations who’re misplaced on this fog; Mon individuals are additionally disoriented within the present political panorama, stated a Mon ethnic affairs analyst.
They’re confused over whether or not to cooperate with the regime and demand their rights by talks, stick with the NCA path, or be part of resistance teams and combat for his or her rights, he stated.
Mon State is predicted to expertise extra repercussions from escalating armed conflicts in Myanmar, he stated.
“Armed conflicts are going down throughout the nation. It will positively have an effect on Mon State and will have extra severe impacts within the months to come back. As a Mon ethnic individual, my view is that dialogue with the SAC will not be the answer for the present political disaster. It is not going to assure the rights that we Mon folks aspire to. If an settlement is reached, it can by no means be carried out. [Negotiations] are simply the regime’s technique for survival amid the political disaster. The talks will convey no outcomes for Mon folks,” he stated.
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