Pakistan is anticipated to expertise a weak La Niña part in November and December, which is able to lead to below-normal rainfall and better temperatures throughout most areas of the nation, the Nationwide Catastrophe Administration Authority (NDMA) mentioned on Thursday.
Briefing the media in Islamabad, Tayyab Shah, NDMA’s Director of Danger Administration, mentioned the La Niña part is more likely to final three to 4 months, warning that the upcoming winter season will deliver much less precipitation than typical, significantly between November and January.
In line with the NDMA forecast, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir are anticipated to obtain below-average rainfall, whereas winter rains and snowfall will stay largely confined to northern areas. Punjab could expertise regular temperatures, however northern, southern, and western components of the nation are more likely to document higher-than-usual temperatures.
Shah added that chilly winds will enter Pakistan between December and April, accompanied by decrease humidity ranges. The shift in climate patterns signifies that winter is now anticipated to peak in late January as an alternative of December.
Snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and higher Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is predicted to be 5–7% decrease than common, which might influence glacier well being and water availability through the summer season of 2026, the NDMA official warned.
The authority additionally cautioned that Sindh and Balochistan could face drought-like situations on account of diminished rainfall, although satisfactory monsoon rains in 2025 and adequate dam storage are anticipated to mitigate any main water disaster.
By late November, the NDMA mentioned, Siberian winds will deliver a noticeable drop in temperatures throughout northern and central Pakistan, with northern areas more likely to expertise extreme chilly via December.
The NDMA’s projection comes simply days after the Pakistan Meteorological Division (PMD) dismissed studies of an exceptionally chilly winter this yr. The PMD clarified that the nation could expertise some winter waves of minor depth on account of western disturbances within the coming months.
Specialists clarify that La Niña happens on account of an irregular drop in sea floor temperatures within the Pacific Ocean, disrupting world climate techniques and sometimes inflicting excessive temperature variations throughout areas.
