The author heads the unbiased Centre for Analysis and Safety Research, Islamabad
In a harmful escalation, each Afghanistan and Pakistan engaged in rocket, artillery and drone assaults throughout the border from February twenty fourth to twenty sixth. Each side accused one another of “unprovoked firing” because the initiating issue for the most recent assaults. Nevertheless, for Pakistan, the TTP secure havens stay a persistent concern and function the justification for kinetic strikes in opposition to these shelters.
Pakistan launched the assaults in opposition to the Afghan Taliban in response to “unprovoked firing” from throughout the border in varied places alongside the border in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s Chitral, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram and Bajaur sectors late Thursday, February twenty sixth. Pakistan Air Pressure (PAF) carried out airstrikes focusing on army installations in Kabul, Kandahar and Paktia. Afghan Chief of Military Workers Fasihuddin Fitrat ordered an finish to “retaliatory operations in opposition to Pakistani army posts”.
The current surge in violence in border areas, significantly in Bajaur, Chitral, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram, Tirah Valley, Khuzdar, Mastung and Zhob, seems to be the most recent set off for the Operation Ghazab Lil Haq.
Onerous information, together with cross-border assaults, involvement of nationals, satellite tv for pc imagery and intelligence, help Pakistan’s claims that TTP, BLA and ISKP have intensified their actions, utilising Afghanistan as their operational and coaching base.
In distinction, Kabul’s technique appears to be one in every of denial and allegations. In a number of interviews with native and international media retailers, Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, dominated out TTP presence in Afghanistan. Safety challenges are Pakistan’s inside points, and it should deal with them independently, Mujahid has reiterated repeatedly.
Mujahid additionally seems to conflate sure Baloch militant teams with ISIS/ISKP to deflect Pakistan’s assertion concerning the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan. “Regrettably, as a substitute of suppressing ISIS, Pakistan has offered secure havens for them in areas resembling Mastung in Balochistan and places in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.”
Mujahid additionally seeks assist from regional international locations, however that is the place Kabul’s dichotomous predicament begins.
Firstly, the February 2026 UN Safety Council Monitoring Crew report explicitly rejects Taliban claims and describes what many member states confer with as a “permissive setting” – a haven or operational base for a number of terrorist organisations that proceed to pose regional and worldwide threats.
Secondly, most regional nations — Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Russia — are demonstrably apprehensive about “terrorist sanctuaries” in Afghanistan.
The Russian International Ministry evaluation report reckons as much as 23,000 native and international militants at present function in Ghazni, Laghman, Kunar, Nangarhar, Nuristan and Parwan, with as much as 7,000 and three,000 members of the TTP and ISKP, respectively. The Jap Turkestan Islamic Motion continues to pose a priority for China, which calls for assurances that anti-Chinese language militant teams won’t keep on or function from Afghan territory.
Al-Qaeda primarily utilises Afghanistan as a number for coaching camps and establishes connections with varied terrorist and extremist buildings to broaden its affect within the area.
Equally, Pakistan accuses Kabul of failing to manage TTP sanctuaries. The convergence of regional issues is hanging. The ISKP stays energetic and able to high-profile assaults.
Thirdly, the Taliban regime stays below intense worldwide scrutiny for the quite a few decrees that UN human rights chief Volker Turk and others contemplate as a way to “additional crush rights and freedoms, significantly for girls”.
Turk advised media in Geneva that “a decree signed by Taliban supreme chief Hibatullah Akhundzada final month ‘defines a number of crimes and punishments that contravene Afghanistan’s worldwide authorized obligations’.”
Mujahid promptly dismissed these experiences as “unsubstantiated”.
Fourth, the plain surge in Afghanistan-related violence underscores the futility of relying solely on army offensives to quell geopolitically pushed militancy. Whereas occasional arduous motion could also be vital, the following section after a cooling-down interval presents even better challenges. Diplomacy alone can not erase the hatred that has been sown, as exemplified by the households of the 17 people who reportedly misplaced their lives within the Pakistani strike pursuing a Nangarhar goal.
The Taliban’s reticence and Pakistan’s insistence on conclusive motion in opposition to TTP have introduced each nations to the precipice of battle, which guarantees extra attrition than restore or containment. Till the Taliban display their dedication by means of tangible actions, scepticism concerning their intentions will persist. Will they search recognition and stability as a sovereign state, or are they as soon as once more ready to function a haven in a world of competing energy struggles?
Subsequently, whereas the pursuit of terrorist secure havens throughout the border is a vital step, a long-term strategy that prioritises dispassionate rationality is equally essential. Navy interventions might present a brief respite, however long-term aid necessitates a mitigation technique slightly than army confrontations.
That’s the reason, whereas Pakistan pursues terrorist secure havens throughout the border, its long-term pursuits additionally demand a dispassionate, rational strategy. Use of power might solely provide a quick mid-term respite. Lasting aid requires a mitigation technique, not a army outing.
Till the Taliban transfer from statements to verifiable actions, scepticism of their intent will endure. A tough alternative faces the regime: does it, as a sovereign and respectable state, search international recognition and stability, or is it able to jeopardise these ambitions by serving — willingly or in any other case — as soon as once more as a sanctuary in a world of competing energy struggles?
