United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second spherical of negotiations with Iran will happen in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators attempt to revive negotiations earlier than the top of an ongoing but fragile two-week ceasefire.
The announcement on Sunday got here alongside a pointy escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran should conform to a deal “a method or one other – the great method or the laborious method” and threatened to focus on key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He additionally renewed his menace of putting “bridges and energy vegetation”, which consultants stated may quantity to struggle crimes below worldwide legislation.
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Iran, nevertheless, has to this point denied it’s going to take part within the talks, accusing the US of “armed piracy” after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, additional heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries.
What has the US stated?
On Sunday, Trump introduced that US negotiators would journey to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks geared toward ending the US-Israel struggle on Iran.
In a social media submit, the president didn’t say which officers can be despatched to the talks. Final weekend’s first spherical of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended and not using a deal.
Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is because of expire on Wednesday, by opening hearth on Saturday within the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn’t settle for the phrases of the deal being provided by the US.
“We’re providing a very reasonable and affordable deal, and I hope they take it as a result of, in the event that they don’t, the USA goes to knock out each single energy plant, and each single bridge, in Iran,” Trump wrote on his Reality Social platform.
In an extra escalation, Trump stated an Iranian-flagged ship referred to as the Touska was “stopped” by US forces within the Gulf of Oman “by blowing a gap within the engine room”. He stated it was attempting to get previous the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
US forces boarded the ship and took bodily management of the vessel.
How has Iran responded?
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya army headquarters confirmed the US assault on the Iranian-flagged tanker and stated it will “reply quickly”.
Then, Iran’s Tasnim Information Company reported that Iranian forces had despatched drones within the course of US army ships.
Ebrahim Azizi, the top of the Iranian parliament’s Nationwide Safety Committee, advised Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions throughout talks with the US are strictly guided by nationwide pursuits and safety.
When requested if Tehran intends to take part within the talks in Islamabad, he stated, “Iran acts primarily based on nationwide pursuits.”
“We see the present negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing aside from the battlefield on this,” he stated. “If it yields achievements that maintain these of the battlefield, then the negotiation enviornment can be a possibility for us … however not if the People intend to show this right into a discipline of extreme calls for primarily based on their bullying method.”
What are the important thing factors of friction now?
Because the begin of the struggle on February 28, various new sticking factors have emerged – alongside previous challenges:
Strait of Hormuz
A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital world transport route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) provides have been shipped by the strait earlier than the struggle started.
Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies inside the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and doesn’t fall into worldwide waters, and said that solely “nonhostile” ships may move. It has additionally floated the thought of levying tolls whereas Washington calls for full freedom of navigation.
After the struggle started, Iran in impact closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Transport visitors has since dropped by 95 %.
Every week in the past, the US carried out a blockade of its personal. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to strain Tehran to reopen the very important waterway, including one other impediment to the talks.
Based on Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in worldwide safety at King’s Faculty London, Trump’s stance on the strait has shifted through the battle and stays unclear.
“We’ve had Trump say that he can be open to collectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, the place each side acquire a toll for transport,” Geist Pinfold famous, calling this “utterly totally different to the calls for of the US on paper but additionally the calls for of the US’s regional allies just like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab within the again”.
“This isn’t simply between the US and Iran. It’s concerning the US having to maintain its regional allies on facet,” Geist Pinfold advised Al Jazeera.
Enriched uranium
One other core subject is Iran’s nuclear programme, notably its inventory of enriched uranium.
The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working in the direction of constructing a nuclear weapon whereas offering no proof for his or her claims.
Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian functions solely. It’s a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA) below then-US President Barack Obama. In that settlement, Iran pledged to restrict its uranium enrichment to three.67 per cent, which is considerably under weapons grade, and to adjust to inspections by the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) to insure it wasn’t growing nuclear weapons. In return, worldwide sanctions on Iran have been lifted.
Nonetheless, in 2018, throughout his first time period, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA regardless of the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the settlement as much as that time.
In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of nationwide intelligence, testified to Congress that the US “continues to evaluate that Iran shouldn’t be constructing a nuclear weapon”.
A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. Whereas that can be under weapons grade, it’s a brief leap to realize the 90-percent purity wanted for atomic weapons manufacturing.
On Sunday, in strongly worded feedback, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated Trump had no justification to ”deprive” Iran of its nuclear rights.
Maryam Jamshidi, a legislation professor on the College of Colorado in Boulder, stated Iran’s place on enrichment relies on Article IV of the NPT, “which recognises that every one state events [to the treaty] have the inalienable proper to analysis, develop and use nuclear vitality for peaceable functions”.
“In demanding that Iran don’t have any enrichment, the USA is denying Iran its rights below this treaty,” she advised Al Jazeera.
“In insisting that its proper to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing an inexpensive need to be handled the identical as every other state below worldwide legislation.”
Lebanon
Two days after the primary US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, during which Supreme Chief Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon started firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck again, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon.
Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel finish its offensive in opposition to its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon.
After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce beginning on Thursday night time after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. Nonetheless, that ceasefire can be teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities.
On Monday, the Israeli army claimed that it struck a loaded launch system within the Kfarkela space of southern Lebanon in a single day whereas Hezbollah claimed duty for a number of explosions that it stated hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured autos, additionally in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah is Tehran’s strongest ally within the area and a central a part of its “axis of resistance”, a community of armed teams throughout the Center East aligned with Iran in opposition to Israel. The community additionally consists of Yemen’s Houthis and a group of armed teams in Iraq.
Which of the US calls for have modified through the battle?
Ballistic missiles
Earlier than the US-Israeli struggle on Iran, Tehran had at all times insisted negotiations be solely centered on Iran’s nuclear programme.
US calls for, nevertheless, have prolonged past the nuclear file. Earlier than the struggle, Washington and Israel demanded extreme restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme. Iran has stated its skill to keep up its missile capabilities is non-negotiable.
On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran’s refusal to debate its missile programme was a “large drawback”.
But, for the reason that two-week ceasefire was introduced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations started, the US has not made any point out of Iran’s ballistic missiles, which have been a significant function in Iran’s retaliation in opposition to US and Israeli forces.
A change in Iran’s authorities
The US and Israel have additionally made no secret of their need for a change in Iran’s authorities. Requested two weeks earlier than the struggle started if he wished for a toppling of the federal government in Tehran, Trump stated: “Looks as if that may be the perfect factor that might occur.”
After the killing of Khamenei and a number of different senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel struggle had in impact led to “regime change”, claiming key management layers have been “decimated”.
Consultants, nevertheless, disputed Trump’s assertions, saying the federal government was very a lot intact, if not stronger.
Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin Faculty in Maine, argued that regardless of US claims, what is occurring in Iran doesn’t meet any severe definition of “regime change”.
“The basic constructions of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the brand new leaders are regime loyalists who’re arguably extra hardline than their assassinated predecessors,” he advised Al Jazeera.
Mohandesi stated the struggle has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), one thing that’s an “acceleration of an current” pattern and doesn’t essentially quantity to regime change, “definitely not in the way in which Trump means it”.
“Trump’s declaration that he has succeeded in ‘regime change’ is only a rhetorical transfer to attempt to declare victory the place none exists,” he added.
Ending assist for proxy teams
Three days earlier than the struggle started throughout his State of the Union deal with to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and “its murderous proxies” of spreading “nothing however terrorism and dying and hate”.
The US and Israel have lengthy demanded Iran cease supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and various teams in Iraq.
Tehran thus far has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its assist for these armed teams.
However on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to nearly the entire US calls for, together with assist for its proxies.
An announcement by Iran’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs rejected that any such settlement was in place, saying: “The People discuss excessively and create noise across the state of affairs. Don’t be misled!”
Can the divide be bridged?
On Sunday, Iran’s prime negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that whereas “conclusions” had been reached on some points, “we’re removed from a remaining settlement.”
Analyst Geist Pinfold advised Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a complete deal unlikely within the close to time period regardless of some openings created by Trump’s shifting positions.
“The first complication that may imply a deal is much less seemingly but additionally one of many potential curveballs that may make a deal extra seemingly is the Trump administration’s equivocations concerning what its pink traces truly are,” he stated.
“In the meanwhile, the gaps look insurmountable,” Geist Pinfold added, noting that “the best-case state of affairs can be the extension of the ceasefire reasonably than the precise deal.”
The US-Iran talks face main structural obstacles regardless of rising hypothesis a few negotiated finish to the present disaster, based on Bowdoin Faculty’s Mohandesi.
“Donald Trump feels that he must someway convert this disastrous defeat into some type of win,” he famous, including: “It’s unclear what that may appear like on the negotiating desk.”
On the Iranian facet, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic points. “Iran will completely not abandon its missile programme. It won’t cease supporting its allies within the area, and it’ll nearly definitely not conform to zero enrichment,” he stated.
The tutorial questioned whether or not even a restoration of maritime visitors would represent significant success for Washington. Even when Trump “have been to someway persuade Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war established order, it’s unclear how that may be a significant win for the reason that strait was open earlier than he began the struggle”, Mohandesi stated.
