Erbil, Iraq – Iranian Kurdish opposition events have been on excessive alert because the United States-Israel strikes on Iran started on February 28. Their bases within the semi-autonomous Kurdish Area of Iraq and inside Iran itself have been thrust onto the entrance strains of the conflict.
The potential for Iranian Kurdish fighters coming into the battle to topple the Iranian authorities has additionally been broadly mentioned. Each US President Donald Trump and Israel have instructed that arming these fighters might tip the steadiness of energy inside Iran, the place Kurds make up about 10 % of the inhabitants.
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A number of leaders of those events have advised Al Jazeera they command army formations and organisational buildings inside Kurdish areas in Iran, along with headquarters and bases within the Kurdish area of northern Iraq.
Kurdish teams from each side of the border flourished after Iraq’s defeat within the 1990-1991 Gulf Warfare led to the creation of a no-fly zone in northern Iraq and self-rule by the Kurdistan Regional Authorities.
Iranian Kurdish teams, from the left to the nationalists, had been significantly properly insulated following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
On February 22, 2026, 5 Kurdish teams primarily based in Iraq and western Iran shaped the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in response to the suppression of the protests. For the reason that conflict started, their army and political belongings in Iraq have been closely attacked by Iranian drones and missiles.
Kako Alyar, a member of the political bureau of the Komala Occasion of Iranian Kurdistan, claimed his celebration had sleeper cells and networks that participated in antigovernment protests in Iran, which happened in December and January, till being violently crushed by safety forces.
He additionally stated that because the begin of the conflict, 13 fighters linked to his celebration have been killed in Iranian assaults.
“The outbreak of conflict has modified the circumstances throughout the Kurdish areas, particularly after the Iranian authorities tightened safety measures and suppressed the protests,” Alyar defined.
“The celebration has not obtained any army help from america, nor from European or Arab international locations, regardless of the calls for to get such assist.”
US President Donald Trump has flip-flopped on the position of Kurdish teams within the US-Israel army marketing campaign. However there have additionally been stories of US intelligence working with Kurdish fighters and that areas alongside the Iraq-Iran border have been significantly closely attacked because the begin of the conflict. Some have interpreted this as an indication that Washington is likely to be critical about floor operations inside Iran by Iranian Kurdish teams.
Iranian opposition fighters are sceptical in regards to the success of any potential large-scale army operation in Kurdish areas in Iran, saying it might be a vastly dangerous endeavour and would possible result in enormous casualties for his or her aspect.
“This present day, there are dangers, particularly given the heavy deployment of Iranian forces within the Kurdish areas and alongside the border with the Kurdistan area,” Alyar stated.
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Authorities had requested Iranian Kurdish events to chorus from actions that might hurt native safety and pursuits, given the Iranian response.
Varied Iranian Kurdish teams, reportedly with 1000’s of fighters between them, have lengthy opposed Tehran from their bases in northern Iraq and alongside the Iraq-Iran border.
However Iranian opposition leaders are cautious of US intentions concerning Iran, suggesting they haven’t seen any actual intention of regime change.
”They [the US] don’t need to assist forces inside Iran with the purpose of toppling the regime. The target is to weaken the Iranian affect within the Center East,” Rebaz Sharifi, a pacesetter within the opposition Kurdistan Freedom Occasion of Iran, advised Al Jazeera.
Sharifi rejected claims circulating on social media that his group had obtained weapons or army help from the US or different international locations.
Nonetheless, the Iranian army has launched army operations in opposition to Iranian Kurdish teams in northern Iraq, together with stories on Friday of strikes on bases there.
Iranian state media have acknowledged assaults on “anti-Iran separatist forces” in hard-to-reach areas close to the Iran-Iraq border.
Sharifi estimates his celebration’s bases and positions have been attacked greater than 80 occasions because the starting of the conflict.
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Authorities had put strain on Iranian Kurdish events to restrict their actions earlier than this present conflict, in a bid to guard the autonomous area. Nonetheless, inside hours of the US-Israel assaults on Iran in February, retaliatory assaults on US belongings in Iraq’s Kurdish area started and dragged the area into the battle. Financial targets, equivalent to oil fields, have additionally been hit in suspected drone and missile assaults.
“Now we have 1000’s of fighters… We might have executed extra inside Iran, however we place the safety and stability of the Kurdistan Area on the prime of our priorities, and we don’t need to hurt the Kurds in Iraq,” Sharifi stated.
Iranian-linked fighter teams in Iraq have additionally been closely attacked in US strikes, together with after assaults on Saudi Arabia blamed on these teams this week.
Troublesome equation
Iraq as an entire got here beneath a number of assaults from pro-Iran teams and Iran’s highly effective Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US has additionally carried out assaults in opposition to these Iraqi teams.
Soran Palani, an professional on Iranian affairs and an Iranian Kurdish citizen, believes that the Iranian Kurdish events face a extremely advanced equation.
“Iraq’s Kurdistan Area has given these events an area for political, organisational, and army exercise, however on the identical time it has made the area susceptible to the repercussions of any confrontation between them and Tehran,” Palani stated.
“The absence of direct Arab, European, and American assist represents probably the most outstanding components stopping the Iranian Kurdish events from making a call to escalate,” he defined, including that Iran, over the previous years, has managed to construct intensive affect in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, along with supporting its allies within the Palestinian territory.
“Arab international locations haven’t in return offered comparable assist to the Arab-Iranian opposition, significantly within the Ahwaz area… This actuality makes it tough to count on the Iranian Kurdish events to acquire direct Arab assist ought to they determine to open a army entrance inside Iran,” he stated.
The Iraqi authorities stated Iraq should not be a launchpad for assaults in opposition to neighbouring international locations.
Now, probably the most vital questions for the Iranian Kurdish events is whether or not the present conflict will flip right into a challenge for regime change in Tehran.
For a lot of Kurds inside Iran and overseas, a collapse within the regime might carry a historic alternative, however, on the identical time, it might result in a serious safety vacuum and turmoil. The following section of this battle might be essential for Iranian Kurds, Iran, the US, Iraq and the broader area.
