Leaders on the first assembly of the Joint Motion Committee on Honest Delimitation, in Chennai. File picture: Particular Association
The southern States have discovered that decreasing inhabitants progress and bettering well being and schooling have led to severe disadvantages. The quick fallout is that the Finance Fee (FC) has decreased allocations to the south as inhabitants dimension carries 50% weight within the redistribution of Union tax income amongst States. The longer-term implication is extra severe: in keeping with the present proposals, the proportion of seats will stay the identical however the hole within the absolute variety of seats will widen within the run as much as the 2029 elections, impacting southern States. Delimitation will probably be determined by a Delimitation Fee (DC) earlier than 2029.
Ought to the southern States be punished for having invested higher in well being and schooling that helped cut back inhabitants progress, by having their Lok Sabha seats decreased and thereby shedding relative political and monetary energy? A lot of the inhabitants enhance since 1991 has occurred within the northern States, comparable to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
The potential options
The 84th Constitutional Modification (2001) on delimitation has implications for illustration, and the south must make its case urgently. The 84th Modification Act prolonged the freeze on the variety of seats from 2000 to 2026. It acknowledged, “Protecting in view the progress of household planning programmes in numerous components of the nation, the federal government… determined…, as a motivational measure to allow State governments to pursue the agenda for inhabitants stabilisation,” that Lok Sabha seats shall “stay unaltered until the primary census to be taken after… 2026.”
That’s the reason the Census was delayed from 2021. The outcomes are actually anticipated by October 2028, after which the DC will probably be constituted and its suggestions introduced, forward of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Clearly, New Delhi all the time had this technique of making certain everlasting energy, by controlling the northern, extra populous, States.
What are the options to stop the unfair outcomes of delimitation to the south? 4 various strategies are conceivable. The primary is to extend the whole variety of Lok Sabha seats, whereas retaining the present proportional distribution amongst States, utilizing the 2011 Census as the premise. A redistribution primarily based on the 2011 inhabitants, with no State shedding seats, would end in a Lok Sabha of about 866 members. This would possibly trigger the least disruption. But it surely nonetheless doesn’t clear up the issue of States with larger inhabitants progress gaining extra MPs.
The second is to boost the whole variety of Lok Sabha seats and in addition introduce equality amongst States within the Rajya Sabha (as is the case within the U.S. Senate), with every State having the identical variety of seats — for instance, 10 seats per State — elevating the whole variety of Rajya Sabha seats from 245 to 290. However the ruling social gathering will oppose this as it will intervene with its objective of dominating the Lok Sabha.
The third is to boost the variety of seats in Vidhan Sabhas to equalise representatives per 1,000 inhabitants for every State, leaving the Lok Sabha intact. In a big, federal nation, this may enhance illustration in additional populous States, notably on the State degree. However the ruling social gathering will oppose this as nicely, since its eyes are on the Lok Sabha.
The final is to boost the whole variety of Lok Sabha seats, however change present ratios in order that 60% of seats are allotted in keeping with inhabitants dimension and 40% rely upon efforts to cut back inhabitants progress. This might profit States which have decreased their inhabitants progress (utilizing a downward sliding scale). This might be a united negotiating place for the south.
Editorial | Counting issues: On delimitation, federalism, the Census
That is similar to the precept for illustration of 27 member States to the European Parliament (referred to as the Degressive Proportionality precept). It ensures truthful illustration in legislative our bodies such because the EU Parliament by giving bigger international locations extra seats however fewer per individual and giving smaller international locations fewer seats however extra illustration per individual. It balances inhabitants dimension with state equality to stop complete domination by giant nations. It’s a compromise between pure inhabitants proportionality (one individual, one vote) and equal illustration for all states. It means a vote in a small nation has extra weight than in a big one.
What’s going to occur in south India if delimitation takes place? | In Focus podcast
The precept for use
This can even depend on a precept utilized in India by the FCs. The FCs have needed to take care of complaints of unfairness: the professional grievance by the southern States is that they contribute essentially the most, however obtain much less over time from every FC. To deal with this, FCs use a number of standards to allocate funds. The primary is earnings distance (fairness) (with 50% weight). Because of this States with decrease incomes obtain larger transfers. The second is inhabitants dimension, which displays the expenditure wants of the States. Right here, the FCs have used both the 2011 Census inhabitants to replicate present wants or the 1971 inhabitants to reward inhabitants management efforts. So, if the FC, a constitutional physique, makes use of a way to reward inhabitants management, why can’t the DC? The third is demographic efficiency. This rewards States which have efficiently decreased fertility charges. The fourth is tax effort. The FC rewards States that mobilise their very own tax revenues successfully and thus encourages accountable monetary administration. The southern States don’t have any selection however to affix fingers across the Degressive Proportionality precept, and construct consensus earlier than the Centre constitutes the DC.
Santosh Mehrotra, Former Professor of Economics, JNU, and at the moment Visiting Professor, Increased College of Economics, Moscow
Printed – January 12, 2026 01:02 am IST
