Clear skies for now with storm clouds on horizon

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan (left) shakes fingers with President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea throughout a go to to the Horyu Temple in Japan’s Nara Prefecture on Jan. 14, 2026. (Yonhap)

An advocate of constructing a “sturdy Japan,” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led her Liberal Democratic Get together (LDP) to a historic victory in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election. Observers say that this may increasingly bode properly for Seoul-Tokyo relations within the brief time period, however is prone to spell hassle down the road.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung posted on the social media website X on Monday: “I sincerely congratulate [Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi] on the electoral victory within the Home of Representatives.”  

“Throughout our summit in Nara in January, our nations took step one towards the subsequent 60 years of a brand new period. I hope that, going ahead, our two nations can cooperate extra extensively, extra deeply based mostly on the belief and bond that we share,” he added. 

Hypothesis abounds concerning how the mandate given to Takaichi, with the LDP taking 316 out of 465 decrease home seats, will affect Korea-Japan relations and the diplomatic panorama. 

Within the meantime, Lee has expressed his intentions to handle bilateral relations via mutual belief established via a restoration of shuttle diplomacy.

Consultants predict that regardless of the landslide parliamentary victory, Takaichi won’t do something to hurt or pressure relations with Korea. The short-term forecast for bilateral relations within the wake of Takaichi’s overwhelming victory is “clear skies.” 

“The latest victory will not be a results of something Takaichi has achieved. A whole lot of it’s hype based mostly on expectations,” assessed Kim Suk-hyun, a senior researcher on the Institute for Nationwide Safety Technique.

“Prime Minister Takaichi should first consider reviving the economic system, the first curiosity amongst voters. As conflicts between Japan and China intensify, she is prone to chorus from any acts that worsen relations with Korea and drive Korea into the arms of China,” he added. 

Cho Yang-hyun, a professor on the Korea Nationwide Diplomatic Academy, prompt that latest enhancements in Seoul-Tokyo relations imply that flashpoints are prone to be extra manageable in the interim. 

“The rightward shift of Japan is changing into more and more clear, however mutual belief with Korea has been established to a sure extent via the shuttle diplomacy of each leaders, so factors of battle will be managed,” Cho famous. “Amid Japan’s conflict with China and uncertainties tied to the administration of US President Donald Trump, the structural incentives for Korea-Japan cooperation have elevated.” 

Relating to issues about Japan amending its pacifist structure and about Takaichi visiting Yasukuni Shrine, many observers predict that the prime minister received’t make aggressive strikes within the brief time period. 

Takaichi and the LDP have secured the requisite two-thirds of seats within the Japanese Home of Representatives (decrease home) to approve a constitutional modification, however the LDP remains to be a minority within the Home of Councillors (higher home), which should additionally approve constitutional revisions by a two-thirds majority. 

There are not any instant political occasions on the instant horizon, so there’s no purpose for Takaichi to go to Yasukuni to rally the already rallied conservatives. 

The upcoming occasion almost definitely to check diplomacy with Korea is “Takeshima Day” — a day devoted to Japan’s declare on the Korean island of Dokdo — which falls on Feb. 22. Up to now, the Japanese authorities has not despatched officers above the deputy minister stage to related ceremonies. Analysts say Takaichi is unlikely to interrupt from this conference. 

Nevertheless, Takaichi has expressed intentions to amend the pacifist Article 9 of Japan’s structure, rearm the nation, and revise its three non-nuclear rules, which at the moment prohibit Japan from possessing or making nuclear weapons and even letting them into the nation.

These components recommend stormy climate forward in the long run.  

“Whereas the LDP’s landslide victory poses no instant threats to Korea-Japan relations, it creates extremely difficult constructions in the long run,” commented Kim Suk-hyun. 

The researcher went on to specific issues about Takaichi’s strikes to bolster deterrence towards China by fortifying the trilateral alliance with the US and South Korea, which can put the latter social gathering ready of getting to make a tough determination. 

“To discourage China, Takaichi will deliver within the US and strongly insist on trilateral army cooperation with the US and Korea. China will emphasize the ‘resistance’ narrative towards Japan to attract in Korea and impede such trilateral cooperation,” he added. 

“Korea wants to take care of a superb steadiness in its relations with each Japan and China,” he concluded. 

Lee’s emphasis on Korea’s bilateral cooperation with Japan and trilateral cooperation with the US, whereas highlighting the necessity to discover “frequent floor” between Korea, China and Japan, throughout his summit with Takaichi final month, is prone to function an essential guidepost for his diplomatic strategy going ahead. 

By Park Min-hee, senior employees author; Goh Gyoung-ju, employees reporter

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