KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Bernama) — Oil costs might hit US$120 (US$1=RM3.93) per barrel if Iranian authorities act on their implied risk to strike on 5 amenities throughout Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, with Asia bearing the brunt given its dependence on Qatari volumes, in keeping with an analyst.
“A profitable strike wouldn’t solely disrupt condensate refining however threaten the operational continuity of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) trains supplying Europe, Japan, South Korea and China beneath long-term contracts,” Rystad Power senior vice-president Aditya Saraswat mentioned in a press release right this moment.
In response to Aditya, Iranian authorities had warned that 5 amenities throughout Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar “will probably be focused within the coming hours”, whereas oil costs have gone above $110 per barrel.
The amenities are Saudi Arabia’s SAMREF refinery and Jubail petrochemical complicated, the UAE’s Al Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery and Mesaieed petrochemical complicated and holding firm, he mentioned.
Aditya mentioned if statements from Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim information company come to fruition, and amenities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are hit, not less than 700,000 barrels per day of refined product capability may very well be faraway from international markets in a single day, disrupting diesel, jet gas and naphtha provide throughout the three international locations.
“Up to now, Iran has largely adopted by means of on its acknowledged actions, which makes this a extremely credible risk.
“Any disruption right here wouldn’t solely have an effect on regional provide however ripple by means of international LNG markets, with Asia bearing the brunt given its dependence on Qatari volumes,” he mentioned.
Aditya mentioned Saudi Arabia has been hit by strikes, however loadings stay unaffected — a crucial issue for oil markets, as any disruption to key infrastructure such because the port of Yanbu might take away 5 million to 6 million barrels per day from the market, and probably push oil costs to $150 per barrel or greater.
“To place the size in context, the 5 amenities collectively account for roughly 20 per cent of world LNG commerce, as much as 10 per cent of Asia-Pacific naphtha imports, and greater than six per cent of world polyethylene capability concentrated in a geography with no short-term substitute,””he added.
— BERNAMA
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