The analysis on this article stems from Venture Anthracite, a multiyear initiative funded by International Affairs Canada and managed by RUSI and VERTIC, with help from 38 North, that makes use of open-source instruments to investigate North Korea’s chemical business, analyzing the extent to which it might probably help a chemical weapons program.
Introduction
Venture Anthracite is the RUSI venture to evaluate the character and scale of North Korea’s chemical warfare (CW) functionality utilizing open-source capabilities. Whereas a serious a part of the hassle is to check the North Korean chemical business to find out the potential functionality and capability to help a CW program, that is unlikely to supply definitive proof of an energetic CW functionality. An end-to-end strategy can be wanted to find out this, which is past the scope of the present examine and unlikely to be absolutely achieved utilizing solely publicly-available sources.
One ingredient of this strategy is to determine the existence and placement of devoted army battalions (Bns) subordinate to the Nuclear and Chemical Protection Bureau (NCDB)[1]. Eight Bns are referenced, two of that are reportedly energetic (the 17th & 18th), with six in reserve (13th, 14th, 15th 16th, 27th and 36th). A number of studies concerning the places and even existence of those Bns are contradictory, historic, and the topic of possible round reporting. Moreover, the existence of NCDB Bns wouldn’t essentially affirm the existence of an offensive, militarized nuclear or chemical warfare functionality, because it might be argued that such formations would have a defensive operate to counter an exterior chemical or organic warfare (CBW) risk.
Some or all the reported Bns might now not exist, might by no means have existed, might have been relocated, or could also be hidden from sight (tunnel complexes are prolific in North Korea). Moreover, the North Koreans are extraordinarily surveillance-aware and subsequently are inclined to keep away from delicate exercise throughout recognized time home windows of satellite tv for pc passes. Nonetheless, the shortage of an exterior, credible nuclear, organic or chemical (NBC) risk to the DPRK signifies that the existence of NCDB Bns might be an indicator of an offensive North Korean CBW functionality.
Via a broad search and evaluation of commercially and publicly obtainable imagery and different obtainable open-source references, this examine sought to establish doable possible places for the NCDB Bns, prioritizing the 17th & 18th Bns for which there was probably the most collateral reporting, together with defector testimony. Particular consideration was utilized to figuring out something on imagery that would help a hyperlink to CW (e.g., specialist autos, strengthened storage areas, further safety, collocated/built-in manufacturing or storage amenities).
A number of recognized websites of curiosity have been analyzed, a few of which had a few of these options, nevertheless just one NCDB Bn (18th) was positioned, which closely relied on collateral reporting. The shortage of dependable open-source collateral and enormous geographical extent of the search areas, restricted entry to very high-resolution imagery. The bold nature of this examine makes this general a low-confidence evaluation of the existence and/or location of NCDB Bns. Nonetheless, it offers a helpful baseline and an instance of the challenges and alternatives of open-source intelligence (OSINT) when utilized to such a fancy and tough goal set.
Background & Context
In accordance with the Nuclear Risk Initiative (NTI), the North Korean Nuclear and Chemical Defence Bureau (NDCB) is actively concerned within the analysis and improvement of weapons, and nuclear and chemical defence. It operates on the nationwide stage and reportedly is damaged down into seven totally different items: operations, coaching, supplies, expertise, reconnaissance, part No. 32 (probably referring to CW analysis & improvement), and mining/underground facility operations. Two further analysis institutes (No. 55 and, No. 398) are answerable for: 1) simulating nuclear and chemical contamination and a couple of) coaching and operations, and decontamination respectively.
In accordance with NTI, the NDCB has its personal division of operations, made up of eight battalions.[2] Two of those have been reported as energetic, the 17th and 18th, with the remaining, 13th,14th, 15th, 16th, 27th, and 36th in reserve. A few of these nationwide belongings could also be assigned to help a corps, division, or regiment, and supply the Korean Individuals’s Military Floor Forces (KPAGF) with each detection and decontamination capabilities.
In accordance with the US Military, North Korean chemical battalions comprise three chemical firms, every with two chemical reconnaissance platoons and two chemical decontamination platoons. This potential subordination, historic nature of the reporting on unit designations, and the possible routine reorganization and re-designation of army items normally, additional challenges the flexibility to establish and find CBW associated items since they’re prone to be dispersed and built-in into different army formations.
Within the absence of further data, this evaluation targeted solely on making an attempt to establish the eight NCDB Bns listed above. Every of those Bns have been thought of in flip to attempt to establish and find them on imagery.
NCDB Bn ORBATs and Features
If there’s little in the way in which of open-source reference materials relating to the existence and placement of NCDB Bns, there’s even much less on the potential orders of battle (ORBATs), buildings, or activity group for an NCDB Bn.
The NCDB is reported to be answerable for oversight and technical help for chemical precursor and agent manufacturing, distribution and storage of chemical weapons, and manufacturing of defensive gear in coordination with different army organizations. It is also answerable for NBC protection coaching inside the KPA and response to NBC incidents. On the tactical stage, it could subsequently be logical for NCDB Bns to have each offensive and defensive obligations. This might embody the dealing with and transport of chemical weapons and radiological materials, coaching and doctrinal improvement for NBC resilience, specialist help to CBW supply capabilities (e.g., chemical artillery and chemical warheads), and offering an emergency response to accidents and leaks, along with safety and decontamination of North Korean forces within the occasion of battle.
As in all nationwide militaries, the dimensions of a battalion is dependent upon the kind of troops concerned, the function of the battalion and the doctrine employed by the nation concerned. North Korean army doctrine developed from the Former Soviet Union within the Nineteen Fifties-60s, when the Korean Individuals’s Military (KPA) was skilled, organized and outfitted alongside Soviet strains. In the course of the Korean Warfare, Chinese language affect led to a better emphasis on irregular warfare, the usage of mild infantry and human wave ways. Following the top of the battle, juche (self-reliance) and songun (military-first) ideologies reshaped doctrine to prioritize inside resilience, asymmetry, and independence from international dependencies.
Deep tunnelling and underground amenities, massed artillery close to the demilitarized zone, forward-deployed mild cellular infantry forces, and coaching for guerilla operations behind enemy strains have since been prioritized. KPA floor drive battalions are subsequently not standardized towards different well-documented doctrinal fashions, and sure have, in any case, developed because the KPA has modernized. Moreover, the extremely specialist nature of an NCBD Bn makes it unlikely that it could comply with normal organizational norms.
Nonetheless, this specialization is prone to be mirrored in the kind of gear noticed inside such a unit. Anticipated signature car varieties would come with CBRN reconnaissance autos such because the M1989 (variant of the BTR-60PB), modified UAZ-469 or Kia KM420, and decontamination vans primarily based on the Zil-130 or Gaz-66, or indigenously-produced variants. Signature decontamination autos might embody Russian TMS-65U and ARK-14KM, though decontamination gear may be mounted on a wide range of Russian or North Korean chasses. Different autos might embody command and management autos (e.g. Gaz-69 variants), basic transport (e.g. Zil-130, Gaz-66 vans), indigenously-produced variants such because the Sungri-58 (constructed on a Gaz-51 chassis) and Sungri-4.15 (constructed on a Gaz-69 chassis), and light-weight engineering help autos akin to bulldozers and diggers. Though a few of these generic car varieties are probably identifiable on very excessive decision imagery, particular options of particular person variants figuring out them as NBC-related are too small to be seen. Many of those autos are relevant to each nuclear and chemical features and as such, even when positively recognized, wouldn’t, on their very own, affirm a chemical warfare-related unit. Collectively, these elements make the duty of figuring out NCDB Bns on imagery notably difficult.
A standard characteristic of the battalion is that it’s the foremost tactical formation able to performing independently. The multiplicity of potential duties and the delicate nature of the NCDB Bn function make it possible that they’d be primarily based in discrete, self-contained bases, not essentially collocated with different KPA items, though this can’t be dominated out. Different potential options are a proximity to CBW-related amenities, together with these linked to analysis and improvement, chemical weapon manufacturing websites, missile items, decontamination coaching amenities, and CW storage amenities. NCDB items might also be deployed alongside different tactical items for coaching and workout routines, nevertheless, they’re prone to return to their dwelling bases upon completion of those actions. Lastly, the existence of in depth tunnels and underground amenities all through North Korea means it can’t be dominated out that NCDB Bns are hidden from view.
Potential Places of NCDB Bns
13th NCDB Bn – Hamhung Vinalon Complicated
The 13th NCDB (reserve) Bn has been reported as positioned on the Hamhung Vinalon Complicated. That is assumed to be what’s extra steadily known as the February 8th Vinalon Complicated. An approximate 15 kilometer diameter space imagery search centered on the Vinalon Complicated (39°51′21″N 127°35′07″E) was carried out to establish a possible location for the 13th NCDB Bn (Determine 1).
The next three areas of curiosity have been positioned as the one possible army amenities recognized within the search space, apart from air protection websites:
Space of Curiosity (AOI) #1 (39°48′57″N 127°35′28″E). This possible army facility is positioned 3 kilometers southwest of the 8th February Vinalon advanced, adjoining to the Quantity 17 Explosives Manufacturing unit. The positioning contains a HQ/Admin compound with possible barracks, a car depot that will double up as a depot for civilian autos servicing the adjoining explosives manufacturing unit, a individually secured, walled compound that could be a small arms capturing vary, and a small possible coaching space. The coaching space features a trench and three doable mock up army autos that seem to have been static on all obtainable imagery since early 2015. Imagery high quality is unable to establish these autos and so they could also be generic mock ups, however they seem to have a configuration indicating armoured personnel carriers (APCs). Nonetheless, they’re comparatively small autos (roughly 4 meters in size), which makes them shorter than most APCs, in order that they might be modified mild command autos.
This can be a small army institution, and the one recognized possible army web site inside the fast neighborhood of the Vinalon Complicated, nevertheless it may be related to the close by explosives manufacturing unit. The configuration of the bottom signifies its main function is for coaching. That will be constant for a reserve Bn, nevertheless there isn’t a proof of army autos apart from these on the coaching space, and no different proof from imagery that this might be the placement of a NCDB Bn.
Space of Curiosity #2 (39°55’56”N, 127°31’56”E). This army facility is positioned behind the Institute of Chemistry (Hamhung Department) that was the topic of a earlier report. It contains a big car storage compound with U-shaped and rectangular sheds, and a second car storage space that could be for car upkeep. Army autos are usually seen in each areas. Though imagery decision precludes a optimistic identification of those autos, a tough mensuration on all obtainable imagery since 2017 signifies most of them are field bodied autos, roughly 4 meters in size and 1.8 meters in width (Determine 4).
Imagery from June 2, 2017, exhibits 9 autos of those dimensions, which is in line with a Bn-level formation. There are few army autos of those dimensions, other than the UAZ-469. The UAZ-469 is a typical Soviet Union period mild utility car, broadly exported globally.[3] Quite a few variants and native variations of this car have been produced, together with a CBRN reconnaissance variant (designated the UAZ-469RKh). Modifications for this variant are visibly minor and are comprised of predominantly antennae and tubes, so are undistinguishable on industrial satellite tv for pc imagery. There are a number of options about this location that may make it a logical location for an NCDB Bn: its colocation with the Institute of Chemistry (Hamhung Department) that has been probably linked to analysis and improvement for chemical weapons, and the doable existence of buried and bermed buildings related to this facility would help this assumption. Nonetheless, there’s nothing on imagery to verify the character of the army base, and the presence of air protection websites, communications towers, and different probably delicate amenities within the space makes it equally possible that the bottom might be used to help all or any of these.
Space of Curiosity #3 (39°56’15”N, 127°30’54”E). On the opposite aspect of the mountain, and linked by a switchback street to AOI #2, is one other army base, comprising three separate areas. Nested within the foothills is an HQ/administrative help compound, with a sports activities discipline/parade sq. and possible barracks.
Straight reverse the principle entrance to this compound, on the opposite aspect of the principle street that leads on to the 8th February Vinalon Complicated, roughly 10 kilometers away, is a car depot. This contains a big walled compound surrounded by car sheds, with a single entryway. There may be an unidentified construction within the compound that seems to be have a bund wall and two vents, however the high quality of accessible imagery precludes a optimistic identification. Army autos are usually noticed within the compound, as is a white coach (Determine 5).
The third space is positioned additional east, 0.5 kilometers down an entry street from the car depot. It contains two areas, one an energetic air protection web site and the opposite a possible air protection help space. The placement and format of this AOI doesn’t rule it out as a candidate for the 13th NCDB Bn, nevertheless its proximity to the air protection web site means that the power is air defense-related.
14th NCDB Bn – Sunchon Vinalon Complicated
The 14th NCDB Bn has been related to the Sunchon Vinalon Complicated (also referred to as 118 Manufacturing unit and the Sunchon Nitrolime Fertilizer Manufacturing unit). That is positioned within the sprawling industrial metropolis of Sunchon, and is the topic of a separate report. It was established in 1985, however by 2009, the unique web site had reportedly been shut down and was derelict. This might probably affect the existence or location of the 14th NCDB Bn, and obtainable historic imagery previous to 2009 was restricted. Nonetheless, subsequent evaluation signifies that important reconstruction has occurred on this space, and different probably chemical warfare-associated websites are current. These embody the Sunchon Pharmaceutical Manufacturing unit, Sunchon Chemical Complicated, and a brand new facility constructed to the southeast between November 2019 and June 2022 (Determine 7). The persevering with existence of an NCDB Bn within the Sunchon space is subsequently possible.
With no different collateral data than the title of the Bn, an imagery search 10 kilometers in diameter was carried out to establish potential candidate amenities. Whereas there have been quite a few websites that had traits of army amenities, many of those have been in city areas and had the looks of coaching, academy or administration websites with little safety. These have subsequently been discounted. The proximity of Sunchon Army Airfield to the Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Plant (inside 4 kilometers) is of specific word. The airfield has an embedded underground advanced and can be a pure location for an NCDB Bn. The next have been recognized as potential websites of curiosity, primarily based on their format, location and in some instances, the historic presence of army autos (Determine 8).
Space of Curiosity #1 – 39°25′10.54″N 125°53′39.29″E. AOI #1 is a army facility positioned roughly 500 meters northeast of Sunchon Army Airfield, to which it’s related by well-maintained metalled roads. It contains a big possible sports activities discipline, round that are positioned a number of help buildings, together with a doable gymnasium and possible lodging blocks. To the west of this main space are two different compounds, considered one of which has the looks of a car upkeep depot and behind this a individually secured compound with a car parking space and a U-shaped help constructing.
This compound was reconstructed between late 2017 and early 2018. Previous to that, army autos of assorted sizes have been usually noticed on this compound (e.g see Determine 10), though the standard of accessible imagery precluded a optimistic identification of auto varieties.
The format of the principle space of the power signifies that is both a army coaching institution or barracks, probably for army personnel serving the airfield. Two important new buildings have been constructed between September and December 2024, prone to be sports activities facilities/gymnasiums (Determine 11).
Whereas there’s nothing on imagery to positively establish this as the placement for an NCDB Bn, the discrete, individually secured compound highlighted on Determine 10 can be the most probably location for one if it have been there. Nonetheless, the comparatively excessive profile of the location, additional evidenced by the formal avenue of timber on the strategy street, signifies this as an unlikely location for an NCDB Bn.
Space of Curiosity #2 – 39°25′56.89″N 125°54′09.85″E. AOI #2 is a smaller compound off the identical entry street as AOI #1. It contains of a central open space that has traditionally been used as a soccer pitch, and a number of other help buildings, together with possible barracks and car upkeep sheds. On imagery from September 19, 2022, eight army autos are parked on the central open space. Picture high quality precludes a optimistic identification of those autos, and there could also be a couple of sort, nevertheless all are roughly 5 meters-long. There’s a possible open physique truck parked individually within the compound. Notably, that is the one obtainable picture wherein autos have been recognized at this location.
This web site is in shut proximity to an underground hangar that’s nearly actually used to retailer army plane. It has two separate entrances that permit the plane to transit out and in of the tunnel with out having to show spherical. Whereas the expanse of the power is unknown, the variety of plane which have been seen parked outdoors, on, for instance, imagery from April 16, 2018 (Determine 13), signifies a considerable underground space.
There isn’t any proof on imagery or different collateral to point a hyperlink to a NCDB Bn, and it could be unlikely that chemical or nuclear weapons can be saved in the identical buried location as operational plane, though this can’t be totally dominated out. The dearth of standard army car exercise or further safety makes it way more possible that this web site is a basic help space for the underground facility.
Space of Curiosity #3 – 39°24′59.54″N 125°54′19.52″E. Instantly behind AOI #2 is a 3rd army compound. This compound contains a car parking zone and possible upkeep areas, doable workshops and an HQ/Admin constructing. A number of options distinguish this web site from AOIs #1 and #2. Whereas it’s the similar basic neighborhood, it’s accessed by a single-track street and incorporates two synthetic water reservoirs. Automobile exercise can also be extra constant over an extended interval, with a better vary of autos steadily noticed (Determine 15), though high quality of accessible imagery in unable to verify car varieties.
Of word are a collection of semi-bermed possible storage buildings on the entry street and alongside a related observe to the east (Figure16).
Historic imagery from December 2002 (Determine 17) additionally signifies potential tunnel entrances and different doable hidden entrances which have since been coated by vegetation and timber.
Whereas there isn’t a indication of a hyperlink between these buildings and both AOIs #2 or #3, the proximity and entry make a hyperlink doable. The proximity to Sunchon Army Airfield makes it simply as possible that these buildings are related to operations there. There may be additionally an adjoining substantial possible logistics/storage compound that might be linked to those buildings. This compound has regularly expanded since 2017 and is prone to be linked to the noticed airfield refurbishment.
Space of Curiosity #4 – 39°24′49.43″N 125°54′39.68″E. This web site is related to a a lot bigger possible army barracks through a single-track street. It’s positioned roughly 1.2 kilometers from the airfield and a couple of.5 kilometers from the Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Plant. Of word, it has no direct entry to the airfield so is probably going not linked.
Though an innocuous wanting facility, it’s characterised by very excessive bodily safety, together with a excessive wall surrounding your complete compound, two guard towers and a possible guard room. Varied army autos and vans have been noticed within the central compound since at the very least 2006. Whereas the compound has been in existence because the first obtainable imagery of 2002, it was solely wall secured in 2006. Two unidentified round buildings have been current instantly outdoors the power till their removing in 2011, however it’s unclear as to each their function and whether or not they’re linked to the power (Determine 19).
15th NCDB Bn
Given the shortage of a location for the 15th NCDB Bn, and the whole lack of any collateral data, it has been inconceivable to find out whether or not this Bn exists.
16th NCDB Bn – Namhung Youth Chemical Complicated
The 16th NCDB (Reserve) Bn is reportedly positioned on the Namhung (Anju Namheung) Chemical Manufacturing unit, which is positioned simply north of the Chongchon River, in North Pyongan Province (39°39′05.72″N 125°41′17.55″E – Determine 20). This can be a giant chemical advanced, constructed within the Seventies, that has been a central a part of North Korea’s chemical business and is a serious producer of a variety of chemical substances for agriculture and different civil industries.
Positioned close to the town of Anju, the advanced is usually additionally known as the Anju Youth Chemical Complicated or the Namhung Chemical Manufacturing unit. Because the Seventies, the advanced has been an energetic web site with common enlargement and modernisation that also takes place immediately and it has been linked with parts of a CW program. This makes it a logical location for an NCDB Bn. Nonetheless, being a reserve Bn, there could also be little to see on imagery and there may be a headquarters ingredient that might be accommodated in one of many a number of administrative buildings on the advanced. For consistency, a ten kilometer diameter space search, centered on the center of the advanced, was carried out to search for potential websites. The next websites of curiosity have been famous.
Space of Curiosity One – 39°37′18.20″N 125°41′23.52″E. AOI #1 is a walled discrete army compound, positioned in a residential space roughly 2.5 kilometers to the south of the Namhung Youth Chemical Complicated, to which it’s related by street. The power contains an HQ/Admin constructing, car storage and upkeep sheds. Quite a lot of army autos have been noticed on imagery inside the compound frequently because the first obtainable picture from 2006.
Space of Curiosity Two – 39°40′39.20″N 125°41′39.67″E. AOI #2 is one other walled army compound, positioned approx. 2.5 kilometers north of the Namhung Youth Chemical Complicated. It features a central courtyard, with possible car storage/upkeep and workshops across the perimeter. Quite a few army autos have been noticed on imagery because the first obtainable picture in 2006, though the standard of images precludes their identification.
Space of Curiosity #3 – 39°34′28.84″N 125°39′45.89″E. AOI #3 is a walled compound inside a wider delicate advanced unfold out over a valley inside a mountainous space roughly 8 kilometers south of the Namhung Youth Chemical Complicated. The power is accessed through a single street with a managed entry level and is fence secured over a big space.
Inside the advanced, there are quite a few remotely-located bermed buildings, indicating the storage of risky or explosive materials. There are additionally substantial areas of disturbed earth and particular person buildings nested into the mountainside, indicating the potential presence of underground buildings.
This facility is pretty non-descript, comprising a small, individually secured compound, with a central courtyard, admin/help buildings, car storage sheds and a possible inspection ramp. Of word, there’s a bermed constructing in a compound instantly adjoining to the AOI, with a possible guard tower on the entrance. That is related by a observe to 2 additional, unidentified buildings. One other small bermed constructing was eliminated someday between 2014 and 2016 (Determine 26).
Space of Curiosity #4 – 39°42′13.38″N 125°39′04.06″E. AOI #4 is positioned in a closely militarized mountainous area, roughly 5.5 kilometers north of the Namhung Youth Chemical Complicated. It contains a discrete compound on the periphery of a bigger army facility, on the finish of a 2 kilometer tree-lined avenue. This compound consists of a central courtyard surrounded by buildings most likely related to car storage, upkeep and administrative help. Army autos are usually seen inside the compound, though not in important numbers.
Adjoining to the compound is one other separately-secured web site that has a single constructing surrounded by a berm. The positioning has the look of a coaching base or academy and is within the neighborhood of at the very least two helicopter working and dispersal amenities. It may subsequently be associated to flying coaching and the bermed compound a doable armory, though that’s purely conjecture.
There are quite a few different army institutions inside the search space, most of that are barracks, headquarters and help buildings and with central courtyards, a few of which have sports activities pitches marked out on them. There may be nothing compelling from imagery that may positively establish the presence or id of an NCDB Bn. Nonetheless, primarily based on location, format, related amenities, and exercise, the 4 AOIs described above are the most probably candidates for a 16th NCDB Bn, ought to one exist on this space.
17th NCDB Bn – Onjong-Ri
Reporting on the doable location of seventeenth NCDB Bn is historic and contradictory, and, regardless of claims that that is considered one of two energetic Bns, there was no affirmation to-date that this battalion exists. A key problem in figuring out a location for this NCDB Bn has been to refine the suitable picture search areas, given the plethora of reported place names with totally different translated spellings, comparable place names in several areas, and possible round reporting. Examples are as follows: ‘The seventeenth battalion was positioned at a hot-spring spa within the mountains of Ojong-Ri.’ The one location for Onjong-Ri on Google Earth and different reference materials is in South Hamgyong Province (39°31′49.58″N 127°21′56.63″E) which is within the east of the nation. The identical reference locations Onjong-Ri in Songchon County, South Pyongan Province (within the central west of the nation). Different references are variations on the theme that could be attributable to translation or nomenclature variations, for instance, ‘seventeenth NCDB is location at Pyeongan Namdo Songchon gun Onjori.’
The existence of the 17th Bn has been questioned, however an NCDB Normal Coaching Heart at Onjong-Ri has additionally been reported.[4] Ri Chung Guk lists the seventeenth NCDB as Onjong-ri, in Songchun County, South Pyongan Province (reference not obtainable). In accordance with Every day NK, the seventeenth NCDB is in the identical ‘gun’ because the headquarters of the KPA Strategic Forces Command, at Pyungannam-do, Songchon-gun in Paekwon-ri, North Hamgyong Province.
Given the conflicting reporting however making an allowance for the load of current proof, the search was centered round Onjong-ri (village), Songchon-gun (county), South Pyongan Province (39°31′29.60″N 127°21′45.96″E). The websites of curiosity described beneath have been famous (Determine 28). There are a number of different doable army amenities inside the search space, however none of them match the possible profile anticipated of an NCDB Bn.
Space of Curiosity #1 – 39°31′37.99″N 127°21′52.08″E. AOI #1 is a small army compound on the northern outskirts of Onjong-ri. The power contains a central sq., surrounded by car sheds and help buildings, other than a single entry gate. Instantly outdoors of the gate is a doable car inspection shed/storage, and there’s a small water reservoir instantly to the southeast. Autos are routinely seen inside the compound on obtainable imagery. For instance, imagery from November 14, 2019, exhibits three autos, every roughly 3.2 meters lengthy. Though the standard of images was too poor to establish these autos, at the very least considered one of them seems to be army.
That is the one military-related web site within the fast neighborhood of Onjong-ri, and possible army autos are current on all obtainable imagery because the first obtainable picture in 2007. There are a number of different compounds of comparable format within the neighborhood, nevertheless these would not have the identical diploma of safety and are clearly related to agriculture.
Areaite of Curiosity #2 – 39°33′16.75″N 127°24′30.94″E. AOI #2 is a army advanced slightly below 4.5 kilometers northeast of Onjong-ri, nested within the conjunction of two valleys simply 2 kilometers southwest of Kumsa-ri. The advanced contains a central parade sq./sports activities discipline, a headquarters/barracks constructing on the north aspect, a doable gymnasium and an unidentified help constructing. East of the parade sq. is one other sports activities discipline and help constructing, behind which is an enclosed courtyard and a car compound, which routinely incorporates a wide range of army autos. Picture decision prevents identification of those autos, however they embody flatbed vans, field bodied autos and different unidentified car varieties. Subsequent to this compound is a possible jail.There may be additionally a water storage facility related to the location. It’s unsure as as to if this car compound pertains to the jail or to the army facility, or certainly whether or not the colocation of the army facility and jail signifies a hyperlink between the 2.
Space of Curiosity #3 – 39°32′11.94″N 127°23′50.36″E. AOI #3 is on the head of a dammed reservoir, roughly 3 kilometers east-northeast of Onjong-ri. It contains two websites, roughly 500 meters aside. The western web site, constructed between 2003 and 2007, contains a big parade sq./sports activities pitch, headquarters/barracks, workshop, and enormous warehouse.
The workshop and warehouse have been constructed over a protracted interval from early 2013 to completion by mid-2016.
The japanese web site contains a collection of unidentified help buildings and doable lodging blocks, and two car storage courtyards wherein are positioned the occasional unidentified car. This ingredient of the power was in existence at the very least because the first obtainable picture of 2003.
There are a number of different doable lodging and storage buildings positioned within the fast neighborhood of this SOI.
The timings of development, and lack of army autos make it unlikely to be a location for an NCDB Bn, though the western web site can’t be discounted as a possible candidate.
Space of Curiosity #4 – 39°33′40.24″N 127°21′37.85″E. AOI 4 is a distant army facility unfold alongside a valley 3.5 kilometers north of Onjong-ri. The positioning contains six discrete areas, specified by an identical configuration, and a seventh that most likely consists of an administrative help space. By mid-2025, buildings in 4 of the discrete areas had been eliminated. This web site has all of the hallmarks of a army coaching base, probably for particular forces, with assault programs, possible water coaching programs, and small arms ranges, and is subsequently unlikely to be an NCDB Bn location.
18th NCDB Bn – Sogam-Ri
The 18th NCDB Bn is the second of the reportedly ‘energetic’ Bns, allegedly positioned at Sogam-ri, Pyongwon-gun, Pyongannam-do. Though no corresponding title might be recognized on collateral, there’s a Sogam Station positioned in Pyongwon County. Unusually, restricted collateral exists that has been invaluable in finding this Bn.[5] Ri Chung Guk supplied the next relating to the 18th Bn, supported by a sketch illustration (Determine 35). He recalled reaching the unit by going a long way from Sogam Station, on the rail line from Sinuiju Station, certain for Kaesong. He and his information left the street and went into the mountains. Ri noticed the unit by wanting down from midway up a slope. Leaving his car at that time, Ri and his information walked 20 minutes to succeed in the unit. It ought to be famous that there isn’t a unbiased verification of this report, nevertheless the diagram and outline have been used to assist establish the possible location for the 18th NCDB Bn.
Illustration Key (1) Sogam-ri Reservoir (outdoors compound, far left) (2) Highway with arrow pointing up within the route of Pyongwon (3) Cell restore/service station space: repairs KPA chemical gear, radiation detection gear. (4) Manufacturing unit 279, which produces decontaminants. (5) 1st, 4th, fifth Corporations (6) Gasoline storage (7) Tunnel (8) Chemical storehouse (9) third, sixth, 2nd Corporations; sixth Firm additionally has coaching room(s) (10) Automobile restore (11) Mess corridor (12) Steering unit (13) Communications unit (14) Army clinic (15) Provisions storehouse (16) Train space (17) Guardhouse (18) Institute 398, a decontaminant analysis middle (19) Tree windbreak (20) Sogam-ri, Pyongwon County, South Pyongan Province (21) Highway with arrow pointing within the route of Sunan (22) Chemical advanced (23) Sogam-ri coaching facility for brand new troopers. Ri notes that the NCDB 18th Battalion, together with seventeenth Battalion, trains new troopers for NCDB items. |
A ten kilometer radius space search centered on Sogam Station was carried out to establish all probably army associated amenities inside the chosen space to establish possible wanting websites. These have been then cross-referenced towards the Ri defector report. The realm is characterised by a combination of farmland and mountainous outcrops and is very militarized. There are a substantive variety of air protection missile websites, army coaching and tutorial areas, barracks, underground and buried amenities and tunnel entrances, in addition to the Sunan joint army/civilian airfield. This made optimistic identification of a person unit such because the 18th Bn a very difficult activity. An preliminary record of roughly 25 websites was refined to 13 of specific curiosity (Desk 2).
Of those, the power that the majority carefully matched the format and instructions given within the defectors report was No. 11. An in depth comparative evaluation of the location on historic and present imagery with the defector map, description and labelling makes this a excessive confidence evaluation that the location described by the defector is that recognized on imagery. Nonetheless, with out additional collateral, this doesn’t affirm that this facility is or was the placement of the 18th NCDB Bn.
An summary of the power is given on Determine 36, indicating its relative location and related amenities based on the defector report.
Determine 37 compares a historic picture from 2003 (the earliest obtainable) with the defector report, demonstrating a powerful correlation between the 2. There have been a number of adjustments since this time, most notably the reconstruction of 1st, 4th and 5th Corporations and the substitute of the three buildings corresponding to threerd, 6th and a couple ofnd Corporations with two longer buildings.
Moreover, there was a big enlargement of Manufacturing unit 274, which occurred someday between March 2020 and August 2022. Army autos have been an everyday characteristic of this space on all obtainable imagery since 2003 and imagery from July 10, 2025 exhibits 4 towed artillery items (probably D-30) and three different unidentified army autos (Determine 39).
The one discrepancy between the defector reporting and the imagery evaluation is the shortage of an noticed chemical advanced or recruit coaching middle on imagery on the location Ri indicated. It’s doable that these amenities had been demolished between the time of his go to and the earliest obtainable picture, nevertheless there’s a doable chemical advanced roughly 2 kilometers south down the principle street in direction of Sogam Station, and three doable places of a possible coaching facility within the neighborhood of the 18th NCDB Bn have been recognized (Determine 40).
twenty seventh NCDB Bn – Wonsan, Kangwon-do (Kangwon)
Often known as the 37th NCDB Bn, this Bn is assumed to be collocated or related to the Wonsan Chemical Complicated. Wonsan is North Korea’s fifth largest metropolis, positioned on the east coast. As a pure harbor, it has a considerable port facility and naval base. Since 2015, the town has seen important redevelopment with the goal of reworking it right into a vacationer vacation spot. A evaluation of accessible imagery from 2002 has been unable to definitively establish a useful chemical advanced, nevertheless there are two possible areas that will have been linked to the chemical business at one level. A number of amenities have nonetheless been recognized with a profile that would probably comprise an NCDB Bn, though there’s nothing on imagery to verify this and the existence of the 27th NCDB Bn within the Wonsan space is assessed as low confidence. There are quite a few different army amenities inside a ten kilometers radius of the town centre, nevertheless most of those have the looks of ordinary army coaching/tutorial or barrack amenities.
Areas of curiosity have been recognized as follows:
Space of Curiosity One – 39°09′03.08″N 127°27’23.72″E. This web site is inside a kilometer of one of many potential legacy places of the Wonsan Chemical Complicated. It contains two main secured areas, the japanese considered one of which incorporates a number of car storage and upkeep sheds and a big courtyard space. Army and civilian autos are steadily seen on this space, primarily field bodied autos and white coaches, that are steadily used for shifting troops all through North Korea. The western space, to which there’s separate entry, has the looks of a help space, with possible barracks, administrative and different help buildings. There may be nothing on imagery to point this web site as a NCDB Bn and the location is simply as prone to be a army car depot. Aside from the air protection websites positioned on hill tops within the surrounding space, it’s, nevertheless, the one recognized non-naval army web site within the fast neighborhood of the potential chemical advanced places.
Space of Curiosity #2 – 39°09′06.09″N 127°25’53.45″E. AOI #2 is a considerable army facility roughly 2 kilometers from the potential legacy places of the Wonsan Chemical Complicated. The positioning is dominated by a big parade sq. and sure substantial barracks lodging. Unusually, there are two air protection websites within the fast neighborhood of the location, which may point out a delicate facility, nevertheless this might be coincidental because of the elevated terrain surrounding the power, or the bottom might be a coaching facility, which may probably embody air protection coaching. There may be nothing on imagery to point the presence of an NCDB Bn.
Space of Curiosity #3 – 39°08′34.68″N °26’06.86″E. AOI #3 is a discrete, safe web site of great curiosity. Though not configured as a regular army facility, it’s unusually well-secured, with an exterior perimeter wall, inside partitions, and a single gated entrance with an related guardroom. The primary characteristic inside the advanced is a tiered, multi-story constructing that has the looks of a doable analysis and improvement constructing, though this can’t be confirmed on imagery. Occasional army autos are noticed within the compound. Of word are two tunnel entrances close by, linked to the location by a street. Due to this fact, whereas there isn’t a indication of an NCDB Bn from imagery and it doesn’t have army barracks or a parade sq., it’s clearly a delicate web site.
thirty sixth NCDB Bn – Sariwon Potash Fertilizer Complicated
The 36th NCDB Bn has been linked with the Sariwon Potash Fertilizer Complicated. Though unconfirmed, there are two possible potential places for this facility, each roughly 6 kilometers east of the town of Sariwon, which is the capital of North Hwanghae Province
A large space (10 kilometers in diameter) search of the realm revealed a big variety of possible army amenities, though many of those have been generic.
These with some or all of the options that could be anticipated of a doable NCDB Bn have been analyzed in additional element (labelled AOIs #1 – 6) and described beneath. Nonetheless, with no collateral data, it was not doable to verify a location for 36th NCDB Bn.
Space of Curiosity #1 – 38°32′01.76″N 125°48’03.41″E. AOI #1 is a army barracks within the foothills of the mountains roughly 3 kilometers northeast of Sariwon Metropolis. There are a number of different army amenities within the neighborhood, nevertheless this one stands out for a number of causes. It’s the just one that seems to have a devoted car parking space and army autos are routinely current. There may be additionally a buried constructing, and a semi-buried distant constructing, and two doable tunnel entrances alongside a observe main immediately from the power.
There are additionally two additional tunnel entrances within the hillside roughly 300 meters away (Determine 47). Due to this fact, whereas there’s nothing on imagery to verify this as an NCDB Bn location, it’s a web site of great curiosity.
Space of Curiosity Two – 38°28′37.79″N 125°51’00.84″E. AOI #2 contains two army amenities solely 500 meters from one of many potential places for the Sariwon Potash Fertilizer Complicated. Nonetheless, they’re each of broadly normal format and their direct connectivity to 2 operational air protection websites signifies that they’re most likely help amenities for this functionality.
Space of Curiosity Three – 38°26′51.32″N 125°43’32.69″E. AOI #3 is a walled army compound roughly 9 kilometers east-southeast of one of many potential places for the Sariwon Potash Fertilizer Complicated. It contains a car parking and upkeep space and single multi-story possible barracks. Quite a lot of army autos are routinely noticed within the compound and lots of of those are roughly 3.6 meters in size. They might subsequently be UAZ-469, though imagery high quality precludes optimistic identification. Flatbed trailers and cabs are additionally usually noticed. There may be nothing to point an NCDB Bn hyperlink and the gap from Sariwon makes this an outlier, nevertheless it’s an energetic, self-contained facility, so this can’t be dominated out.
Space of Curiosity 4 – 38°28′58.49″N 125°50’57.67″E. AOI #4 is a small probably joint civil/army walled compound lower than one kilometer from one of many potential places of the Sariwon Potash Fertilizer Complicated. It consists of car sheds, administrative and different help buildings, in addition to a two two-tiered multi-story constructing that might be associated to lecturers or analysis. There are additionally 4 possible concrete cylinders within the facility, three of that are coated and one uncovered. It’s possible that they have been used for storage in some unspecified time in the future, nevertheless all now seem like derelict. Civilian and army flatbed vans are routinely seen within the compound.
The operate of this facility is unidentified, nevertheless its location to the fertilizer advanced, possible joint civilian and army operate and extra infrastructure (multi-story buildings) not usually anticipated of a army facility, make it a web site of curiosity.
Space of Curiosity 5 – 38°29′17.49″N 125°49’52.55″E. This army base is positioned roughly 1.5 kilometers northwest of potential places for the chemical advanced and contains three related compounds. The primary compound consists of a big central open space, surrounded by possible barracks buildings. Army vans are usually seen on this space, though usually in small numbers. There’s a separate substantial car parking and upkeep space to the north of this compound. A second, individually secured, smaller compound might have been a technical help space for the principle facility at one level, nevertheless, now seems to have largely been was an agricultural space.
The third compound might be a headquarters, administrative and logistical help hub. The format and measurement of the power, coupled with observable possible coaching and small arms ranges, point out that that is prone to be a army coaching base and there’s no proof of an NCDB Bn presence. Nonetheless, this can’t be dominated out.
Space of Curiosity Six – 38°29′28.27″N 125°49’02.56″E. AOI #6 has an identical format to AOI #5 and is positioned solely roughly one kilometer away. It additionally has an open central courtyard surrounded by possible barracks buildings though is configured barely in another way in that it has a possible HQ/admin constructing dealing with this foremost compound. There are additionally a large army car parking and storage space and a separate car compound connected, with its personal entrance and help space. There’s a possible giant car inspection ramp within the compound, which can point out this as a deeper car upkeep yard.
Conclusion
The goal of this examine was to find out the extent to which army websites of curiosity (on this case NCDB Bns) might be recognized as being probably linked to a North Korean CW program by the evaluation of publicly obtainable imagery. Given the paucity of latest open-source reporting, search areas have been vast and the evaluation essentially superficial and illustrative. Nonetheless, the websites detailed above point out the most probably recognized candidates for the placement of NCDB Bns. Respective places within the neighborhood of commercial chemical amenities recognized or suspected to be linked to a CW programme, the presence of army gear, tunnels and bermed buildings and related amenities have been used to slim down choices, nevertheless, within the absence of extra detailed collateral, solely considered one of these potential websites (18th NCDB Bn) has been positively recognized, if defector reporting is correct. There may be nothing on imagery to verify that this base, or any of the opposite potential websites nonetheless accommodate an NCDB Bn, in the event that they as soon as existed. Websites are all particular person and there’s no obvious single template or format that marks them as having the identical operate, together with when in comparison with the 18th Bn.
A extra detailed, longer-term evaluation of every of those bases, supported by up-to-date collateral data can be wanted to supply a better confidence evaluation concerning the existence, function and places of NCDB Bns. Though outdoors the scope of this venture, an evaluation of kit and personnel current throughout official parades, might affirm the existence of devoted NBC autos, gear and formations, and the identification and monitoring of discrete artillery and rocket launch coaching ranges might present additional indications of their existence.
