The Strait of Hormuz has as soon as once more turn out to be an epicenter of world geopolitical uncertainty. Latest re-escalation of the tensions between Iran, the USA and their regional allies on the Strait; the Houthi Crimson Sea blockade and assaults in a number of choke factors have once more demonstrated the sensitivity of worldwide oil costs. Brent crude, which had retreated to round USD 70 per barrel, or on the pre-war stage following earlier diplomatic de-escalation, has once more skilled upward stress, rising to over USD 90 per barrel.
For international locations closely depending on imported fossil gas, the implications lengthen properly past increased petroleum payments. Rising oil costs enhance transportation prices, manufacturing bills, logistics fees, building prices and finally shopper costs. Fertilizer manufacturing, which depends closely on pure gasoline, additionally turns into costlier, placing extra stress on agricultural manufacturing and meals safety. For Nepal, these developments deserve shut consideration.
Nepal stays some of the import dependent economies. Imports exceed exports by practically ten to 1, making the nation exceptionally susceptible to exterior worth shocks. In contrast to many bigger economies, Nepal has restricted potential to soak up such shocks. Increased import payments widen the commerce deficit, enhance inflationary pressures and place extra pressure on public funds. The 2021 reserve dilution attributable to surged import and nearing financial disaster similar to Sri Lanka, reminds us of the robust correlation between intensifying import and exterior sector vulnerability.
The nation’s dependence on remittance earnings creates one other layer of vulnerability. West Asia is certainly one of Nepal’s largest abroad labor locations. In line with official estimates, near 2 million Nepali migrant employees are employed throughout the Gulf area, and remittances from this area represent over 40% of Nepal’s international trade earnings. Any extended geopolitical instability within the area threatens not solely employment alternatives for migrant employees but in addition the remittance flows which have supported Nepal’s exterior sector for many years. These realities train a broader coverage lesson: Nepal can’t and shouldn’t indefinitely depend on imported vitality and labor exports. Nepal should essentially reorient its development technique.
Historical past reveals that main vitality crises have usually served as catalysts for financial transformation. The oil shocks of the Seventies, for instance, prompted many international locations to put money into vitality effectivity, diversify their vitality combine, and speed up the event of renewable and various vitality sources. Extra lately, China has pursued one of many world’s most formidable vitality transition methods, investing closely in hydropower, photo voltaic and wind vitality, ultra-high voltage transmission networks, electrical autos, battery applied sciences, and strategic petroleum reserves. These investments have been pushed not solely by local weather goals but in addition by a long-term technique to cut back dependence on imported fossil fuels and strengthen nationwide vitality safety towards geopolitical disruptions.
Nepal ought to draw an vital lesson from this expertise. Whereas China has strengthened its vitality safety by way of giant scale investments in numerous clear vitality applied sciences, Nepal’s biggest strategic benefit lies in its plentiful hydropower sources. With an estimated technically possible hydropower potential of round 83,000 MW, of which roughly 43,000 MW is taken into account economically viable, Nepal enjoys a definite comparative benefit in clear vitality technology. This endowment ought to not be seen merely as a supply of electrical energy. Slightly, hydropower needs to be positioned because the cornerstone of Nepal’s long run improvement technique; driving industrialization, lowering dependence on imported fossil fuels, strengthening vitality safety, producing export earnings, and creating high quality employment. On this sense, hydropower isn’t merely an infrastructure sector; it’s certainly one of Nepal’s most precious strategic financial property, with the potential to reshape the nation’s development trajectory.
Nepal has already began exporting surplus electrical energy to India and, on a restricted scale, to Bangladesh. Whereas cross-border electrical energy commerce ought to proceed to develop, Nepal’s higher financial alternative lies in utilizing clear and inexpensive electrical energy to energy home industrialization. Slightly than exporting electrical energy alone, Nepal ought to leverage its renewable vitality and derivatives to develop vitality intensive and value-added industries, together with mineral processing, agro-processing, inexperienced fertilizers, knowledge facilities, electrical mobility, and rising inexperienced manufacturing. Such a technique wouldn’t solely cut back imports of fossil fuels but in addition strengthen industrial competitiveness, create high quality employment, and develop export-oriented manufacturing.
Realizing this potential, nonetheless, requires greater than rising technology capability. Nepal should develop the whole electrical energy worth chain, from transmission and distribution infrastructure to dependable industrial connections and productive finish use. On the similar time, home electrical energy demand should be considerably expanded. With annual per capita electrical energy consumption of solely round 400 kWh, among the many lowest in South Asia, Nepal has appreciable scope to affect business, agriculture, transport, and households. Accelerating electrical transportation, irrigation, cooking, and industrial electrification would maximize the financial returns from the nation’s hydropower sources. This may be the driving sector of Nepal’s whole financial ecosystem.
For West Asia, petroleum has formed financial geography and geopolitical affect for many years. For Nepal, hydropower has the potential to play a comparable strategic position within the rising local weather change delicate low carbon financial system. As South Asia’s demand for clear electrical energy continues to develop, pushed by fast financial enlargement and decarbonization commitments, Nepal is properly positioned to turn out to be an vital contributor to regional vitality safety by way of expanded cross border electrical energy commerce and deeper regional energy market integration. It can improve Nepal’s strategic relevance inside South Asia’s evolving vitality panorama.
Realizing this imaginative and prescient, nonetheless, would require sustained coverage dedication, institutional reforms, and substantial funding throughout the hydropower worth chain. Nepal ought to mobilize concessional local weather finance from multilateral local weather funds, comparable to Inexperienced Local weather Fund (GCF), Local weather Funding Funds (CIF), International Atmosphere Facility (GEF), Adaptation Fund, and improvement companions such the World Financial institution, Asian Improvement Financial institution (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Funding Financial institution (AIIB), whereas leveraging modern financing devices, together with inexperienced bonds and strategic monetization of Nepal Electrical energy Authority, and different property. On the similar time, stronger regional cooperation with China, India and different technologically superior economies will probably be important to facilitate expertise switch, funding, institutional reform, and market integration.
Towards this backdrop, the recurring tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are a well timed reminder that world vitality markets will stay susceptible to geopolitical disruptions for the foreseeable future. Nepal can’t affect these exterior occasions, however it could decide the way it responds to them. Slightly than treating rising gas costs as recurring exterior shocks, Nepal ought to seize this second to speed up funding throughout the whole hydropower worth chain; from technology and transmission to industrial electrification and productive utility.
Historical past reveals that international locations that reply decisively to intervals of world uncertainty usually emerge stronger and extra resilient. The Strait of Hormuz disaster ought to due to this fact be seen not merely as an exterior threat, however as a strategic alternative to reorient Nepal’s improvement mannequin. By leveraging its plentiful hydropower sources to drive industrialization, financial diversification, and the inexperienced transition, Nepal can remodel a supply of world uncertainty right into a basis for structural transformation, long run prosperity, and sustainable development.
