Israel’s assault on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria final week didn’t finish Israeli-Syrian diplomacy, as some initially feared. The truth is, it might have accelerated it.
That doesn’t imply the assault was with out threat. Placing an airbase shortly after a Turkish delegation reportedly visited the location might have triggered a direct conflict with Turkey on Syrian soil.
However the strike additionally concentrated minds. On Sunday, 5 days later, Mossad head Roman Gofman and Syrian Overseas Minister Asaad al-Shaibani met in Jordan for US-mediated talks geared toward decreasing tensions and stopping one other such incident.
The assembly was important not solely due to who attended, however as a result of it marked the resumption of a diplomatic course of suspended for the reason that outbreak of the Iran struggle on the finish of February.
In line with experiences, the talks handled reviving Israeli-Syrian safety negotiations and stopping mounting Israeli-Turkish tensions from spilling over into Syrian territory.
The edges additionally reportedly mentioned establishing a particular operations or coordination room in Jordan beneath US supervision. Its objective could be to offer a channel via which Israel, Syria and presumably Turkey might talk and stop misunderstandings from escalating into army confrontations.
That Turkey is now a central a part of the Israeli-Syrian agenda is itself one consequence of the Abu al-Duhur assault, and one thing Jerusalem welcomes.
IDF strike positioned Turkish involvement in Syria at worldwide forefront
Earlier than the strike, Ankara’s rising army involvement in Syria was largely handled as a difficulty between Turkey and Syria. Israel’s motion positioned it on the forefront of the worldwide agenda. It served discover that Jerusalem views a Turkish army presence in Syria not as an inner Syrian situation, however as a possible menace to Israeli safety.
No matter whether or not one accepts Israel’s intelligence evaluation that Turkey was going to maneuver weapons methods advert personnel into the airbase or Syria’s insistence that no Turkish base was deliberate, the hazard is now unattainable to disregard. Turkey is closely invested in rebuilding and coaching Syria’s military, whereas Israel has now made clear that there are limits to the Turkish army presence it’s prepared to tolerate.
The selection of Jordan because the venue for the talks-and because the potential house of a deconfliction mechanism-is additionally telling.
Earlier rounds of Israeli-Syrian talks had been held in locations akin to Paris and Baku, removed from the area. Jordan, in contrast, borders each Israel and Syria and has a vested curiosity in stopping a potential struggle on its doorstep.
Jordan additionally gives an instructive reminder.
Diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Amman are chilly and continuously confrontational, regardless of the peace treaty between the 2 international locations. The 2 governments disagree sharply and publicly over the Palestinians, Gaza, and Jerusalem. But beneath that political hostility, they preserve in depth safety coordination as a result of it advantages them each.
Israel and Syria are clearly in a special place: They continue to be formally at struggle and don’t have any diplomatic relations. However Jordan demonstrates that political heat is just not a prerequisite for sensible safety coordination. That could be what Washington is in search of for Israel and Syria at this stage- not heat relations, definitely not a peace treaty, however a mechanism to stop their disputes from repeatedly threatening to erupt into struggle.
Which is actually what’s presently on the desk.
Damascus needs Israel to withdraw to the positions it held earlier than the autumn of Bashar Assad’s regime in December 2024 and to revive the 1974 disengagement framework. It additionally rejects Israeli calls for inserting limits on the weapons methods it will possibly introduce and the diploma of army help it will possibly settle for from Turkey.
Israel, in the meantime, reportedly needs southern Syria to stay demilitarized, restrictions positioned on Syrian weaponry, ensures for the Druze, and an finish to Turkish army exercise in Syria.
These positions stay far aside. Damascus sees Israeli calls for as an infringement on its sovereignty, whereas Israel views Syria’s insistence on rebuilding its army with Turkish help as offering an open door for a really hostile regional energy to determine itself on Israel’s northern border.
The talks in Jordan won’t rapidly bridge that hole. However they could assist set up guidelines for managing it.
Diplomatic fallout from strike contains positive aspects regardless of criticism
Israel could due to this fact have gained one thing diplomatically from the Abu al-Duhur strike, regardless of the fierce criticism it generated. Turkey’s army presence in Syria is now the topic of a US-mediated course of, not merely an Israeli concern that Ankara and Damascus can simply dismiss.
However Israel have to be cautious to not overplay its hand.
A requirement that there be no Turkish army exercise anyplace in Syria is way more than both Damascus or Ankara is more likely to settle for. Syria regards Turkey as a essential companion in rebuilding the state after greater than a decade of civil struggle. Ankara, in the meantime, has invested an excessive amount of political, army, and financial capital within the new Syrian order to permit Israel an efficient veto over its function there.
The extra sensible goal could be clearly outlined restrictions. This might imply no Turkish bases or state-of-the-art air protection methods in areas Israel considers very important to its nationwide safety; advance discover of serious deployments; and a reliable communications mechanism to stop both aspect from misreading the opposite’s intentions.
The Abu al-Duhur strike didn’t resolve the issue. It did, nonetheless, clarify what’s at stake and drive the hazard of an Israeli-Turkish collision straight onto the diplomatic agenda.
The bombs dropped on Abu al-Duhur’s runways, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned afterward, delivered a message that was not heeded through the established diplomatic channels. The Jordan talks will decide whether or not that message – so dramatically delivered – can now truly produce a workable association.
