Tarique Rahman had been Bangladesh’s prime minister for simply 11 days when battle broke out within the Center East. He took workplace on February 17; on February 28, america and Israel attacked Iran. By March, disrupted gas provides had compelled Bangladesh to introduce rationing, placing additional stress on its economic system.
Eight months into Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP) rule, the outcomes are combined. Remittances have risen and inflation has eased. However residing prices hold rising, companies stay cautious, and regulation and order stays a priority. Mob violence continues.
The federal government inherited critical issues, however its choices additionally should be examined. Constitutional reforms endorsed in a referendum alongside February’s nationwide election stay underneath negotiation. New rights legal guidelines have drawn criticism for weakening impartial oversight.
How far is the BNP keen to vary the establishments it now controls? And are its choices making individuals’s lives higher, safer, and freer than earlier than?
Crime and Legislation and Order
Legislation and order stays a priority eight months into BNP rule. Based on month-to-month information from Bangladesh Police, the drive registered fewer homicide, theft, and kidnapping circumstances between March and September than throughout the identical months in 2025. Housebreaking circumstances, nonetheless, elevated, whereas mob killings continued.
Police recorded 2,122 homicide circumstances throughout these eight months, down from 2,317 a yr earlier. Theft circumstances fell from 1,159 to 1,077, whereas kidnapping circumstances declined barely, from 628 to 618. Housebreaking circumstances rose from 1,796 to 2,022, a rise of almost 13 %.
The whole variety of registered circumstances elevated by 14 %, from 110,296 to 125,763. Narcotics circumstances accounted for about 90 % of that enhance, rising from 31,111 to 45,091. The rise alone can not set up whether or not drug offenses turned extra frequent or police turned extra energetic in registering them.
Mob violence remained a critical concern. A comparability of cumulative experiences from Ain o Salish Kendra, a human rights group in Dhaka, offers a toll of 131 individuals killed in mob beatings between March and August 2026.
On April 11, a mob killed a Sufi non secular chief in Kushtia’s Daulatpur upazila following allegations that he had insulted faith. His shrine was vandalized and set on fireplace. Media experiences mentioned regulation enforcement personnel had been current however failed to manage the assault.
Related incidents occurred in Dhaka in September. On September 25, greater than 200 masked attackers looted and demolished the Radda MCH-FP Heart, a maternal and baby healthcare facility in Dhaka. A preliminary police investigation discovered that officers had been current however didn’t cease the looting.
A day later, lots of of attackers stormed a property and vandalized content material creator Salman Muqtadir’s studio. Police linked the assault to a land dispute involving the property proprietor.
Cops themselves have additionally confronted violence. In June, a mob assaulted two officers in Savar and freed a suspect. In July, three police officers had been attacked in Kutubdia whereas taking a suspect into custody. On September 5, Particular Department Sub-Inspector Altaf Hossain was overwhelmed to loss of life in Savar. Extra not too long ago, on October 10, a police inspector was severely injured in an assault by muggers in Khulna.
The federal government says the police are recovering. On August 26, Dwelling Minister Salahuddin Ahmed claimed that suspects in nearly all felony circumstances filed throughout the federal government’s first six months had been arrested inside an affordable time. He mentioned the administration had inherited a fragile safety scenario and was working to enhance police morale.
Extortion additionally remained a priority. Courtroom data cited in media reporting present that 723 extortion circumstances had been filed throughout 49 police stations in Dhaka between January and August, a interval that features a number of weeks earlier than the BNP took workplace.
Dr. Md Tawohidul Haque, an affiliate professor and crime analyst on the Institute of Social Welfare and Analysis, College of Dhaka, described the federal government’s regulation and order report as combined. “We can not say that there was any important enchancment in contrast with the earlier one and a half years. On the similar time, we can not say that the scenario has deteriorated dramatically,” he informed The Diplomat.
Haque attributed the shortage of progress partly to uneven enforcement and the federal government’s failure to manage its personal personnel: “Except a political social gathering takes a agency place towards wrongdoing inside its personal ranks, the scenario is not going to enhance.”
Haque additionally questioned whom drug enforcement was reaching. Whereas drug customers, small retailers, and couriers confronted arrest, he mentioned, influential figures continued to profit from political safety. “The true patrons and highly effective figures behind the drug commerce stay past the attain of the regulation,” he argued
Addressing that safety would require deeper adjustments in policing. “The Bangladesh Police has nonetheless not been depoliticized,” Haque mentioned. “Its inner construction additionally stays largely unchanged.”
The Financial system
Inflation eased in the course of the BNP’s first months in workplace, however the enchancment was uneven. In March, client costs had been 8.71 % increased than a yr earlier. Inflation climbed to 9.42 % in Might earlier than falling to 8.34 % in September, barely beneath the 8.36 % recorded in September 2025. Costs had been nonetheless rising, including to prices households had already absorbed.
Earnings provided little safety. In August, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ wage index rose by 8.05 %, trailing inflation. The index covers chosen lower-paid occupations, together with agricultural laborers, building staff, and transport staff. For these staff, the figures counsel that wages nonetheless purchased lower than a yr earlier, regardless of the slowdown in worth will increase.
There was extra encouraging information from Bangladeshis working overseas. Remittances reached $18.94 billion between March and August, up 13.1 % from the identical months in 2025, in keeping with Bangladesh Financial institution. These inflows helped replenish international change reserves and supported households receiving cash from abroad. The advance continued an increase in remittances that had begun earlier than the BNP took workplace.
Companies remained cautious. Bankers interviewed by The Enterprise Commonplace (TBS), a Bangladeshi day by day, described weak demand, costly borrowing and power shortages. Sohail R. Okay. Hussain, managing director of Financial institution Asia, informed TBS that factories had unused capability, giving companies little cause to put money into growth. The return of an elected authorities has but to supply a powerful restoration in borrowing.
The federal government inherited a lot of this issue. Bangladesh Financial institution had maintained tight financial coverage, whereas mortgage defaults continued to constrain lending. Its July–December coverage assertion acknowledged that increased rates of interest alone couldn’t resolve inflation attributable to issues in markets and provide chains. It additionally introduced a 600 billion taka financing bundle for business, agriculture, and smaller companies.
Gas prices introduced one other setback in September. The federal government raised diesel costs from 115 to 135 taka a liter because the Center East battle drove up worldwide power prices. The Power Ministry mentioned the rise was wanted to scale back losses on the state petroleum company. For companies and households, it threatened additional will increase in manufacturing and transport prices, making the current easing of inflation tougher to maintain.
The federal government can be struggling to fund its spending plans. Banik Barta, a Bangladeshi day by day, reported that the report 9.38 trillion taka finances depends on gathering almost 7 trillion taka in income. But collections are falling as financial exercise slows.
Citing Nationwide Board of Income sources, the newspaper mentioned income in July–August stood at 518.9 billion taka, down from 547.7 billion a yr earlier and 291.6 billion beneath the goal for these two months. In the meantime, increased power import prices, subsidies, elevated public sector salaries, and main undertaking commitments are including to expenditure.
Dr. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, an industrial economist, coverage analyst, and president of the Data Hub Institute, mentioned that prime inflation, weak progress, and rising unemployment pointed to financial stagnation. He argued that the federal government had proven too little curiosity within the structural reforms wanted for restoration. “The issue is that the federal government doesn’t have the income help required to finance these actions,” he informed The Diplomat, referring to its increasing spending commitments.
Moazzem questioned the timing of wage will increase for presidency staff and huge initiatives that he believed might be postponed. One such instance is the big growth of Biman Bangladesh Airways’ fleet. Its orders for 25 Boeing plane from america and 10 Airbus jets from the European Union would complete 35 new plane, in contrast with its present fleet of simply 19. Moazzem warned that with out reforms to the airline’s administration and repair high quality, the huge purchases might go away Biman with a long-term debt burden that may be tough to service.
New spending commitments are including stress at a time when companies and households had been already struggling, he added. Excessive inflation, borrowing prices, and an unsure enterprise surroundings additionally discouraged personal funding.
Whereas acknowledging the issues inherited by the BNP, he argued that this might not indefinitely excuse its efficiency. “In spite of everything, this authorities assumed workplace with the promise of reversing the financial deterioration,” Moazeem identified.
Overseas Coverage
Eight months into his premiership, Rahman has visited Malaysia, China and the United Nations Common Meeting (UNGA) in New York however has but to journey to India. The delay displays the problem of repairing relations with New Delhi whereas Sheikh Hasina stays there. Her political actions from India, and Dhaka’s demand for her extradition, proceed to complicate efforts to rearrange a go to.
Talking in Dhaka on October 3, Indian Excessive Commissioner to Dhaka Dinesh Trivedi mentioned that Hasina’s return was topic to a authorized course of and provided no timeline. His remarks offered no assurance of an early decision to one of many most important disputes between the 2 nations.
Rahman declined to attend the BRICS Summit’s outreach session, with Dhaka objecting that the invitation addressed Rahman as BIMSTEC chair moderately than Bangladesh’s prime minister. India replied that it had issued two separate invites, together with one for a bilateral go to. Behind the dispute over protocol had been extra sensible considerations: Bangladesh needs progress on visas, commerce restrictions and water sharing. The Ganges water treaty’s expiry in December offers these discussions explicit urgency.
China provided a extra welcoming reception. Throughout Rahman’s June go to, Beijing backed cooperation on Mongla Port, the Chinese language Financial and Industrial Zone in Chittagong, and the Teesta river administration undertaking. The 2 governments additionally agreed to discover a dialogue involving their international and protection ministries, suggesting an curiosity in nearer safety coordination alongside funding.
The Teesta River undertaking is of explicit curiosity. The joint communiqué promised Chinese language help and quicker feasibility work; it didn’t announce a accomplished financing association. In any occasion, managing the river inside Bangladesh wouldn’t settle the separate dispute with India over sharing the Teesta’s water. Beijing’s help gave Dhaka one other technique to pursue a long-delayed undertaking, however negotiations with New Delhi stay needed.
The federal government pursued nearer ties with america by means of purchases in addition to diplomacy. On September 23, throughout Tarique’s go to for the UNGA, Biman ordered one other 11 Boeing plane, taking its orders that yr to 25. Biman described the acquisition as a part of its fleet renewal, but it surely had a wider diplomatic goal: growing U.S. imports to ease commerce tensions and shield Bangladesh’s garment exports from additional tariff stress.
The principle Bangladesh-U.S. tariff settlement, nonetheless, was inherited by the BNP as a fait accompli. Introduced on February 9, two days earlier than the election, the deal offered for a 19 % U.S. tariff and a mechanism permitting a specified quantity of clothes preferential therapy linked to purchases of U.S. textile inputs. It additionally locked Bangladesh into substantial agricultural and power buy commitments.
The Rohingya disaster stays a focus for Bangladesh’s international coverage. On the UNGA in September, Rahman sought a reputable plan for voluntary return, safety of refugees’ rights in Myanmar and reliable humanitarian funding. He additionally acknowledged that folks had been nonetheless fleeing violence into Bangladesh.
Rahman additionally sought worldwide backing for his authorities’s home agenda. He outlined a method of “restoration, restoration and reconstruction” and requested improvement companions to help jobs and manufacturing. He referred to as for continued market entry and financing as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from least-developed nation standing. His speech introduced financial restoration as a central international coverage precedence, alongside appeals for local weather finance and a long-lasting resolution to the Rohingya disaster.
In October and November, Rahman is scheduled to go to Japan and Saudi Arabia on bilateral visits,in addition to touring to Turkiye to attend the thirty first U.N. Local weather Change Convention (COP31).
Political Setting and Freedom of Expression
The BNP’s first months in workplace introduced open arguments between the federal government and its former allies. Jamaat-e-Islami, now main the parliamentary opposition, challenged the federal government’s claims of success. In August, its 11-party alliance questioned the dealing with of rising costs, power shortages, and public security. Nationwide Citizen Social gathering chief Nahid Islam additionally accused the federal government of withholding opposition chairmanships of parliamentary committees, limiting its capability to scrutinize these in energy. These disputes confirmed that political competitors was persevering with after the election.
That competitors remained restricted, nonetheless. The Awami League’s actions had been nonetheless banned underneath an order issued by the interim authorities in Might 2025, pending trials of its leaders and activists on the Worldwide Crimes Tribunal. The restrictions prolonged past rallies and conferences to publications and on-line publicity. The BNP inherited the ban, however selected to uphold it. That left a serious section of Bangladeshi residents with out the power to prepare by means of their most well-liked social gathering.
Journalists continued to face assaults, threats and authorized stress. Ain o Salish Kendra recorded 242 incidents of journalist harassment between March and September. The class consists of a number of types of abuse and doesn’t imply that the federal government was liable for each incident. It however paperwork the dangers that endured after the elected administration took workplace.
The therapy of detained political opponents additionally drew criticism. In August, Human Rights Watch mentioned lots of of individuals linked to the previous Awami League authorities remained imprisoned with out cost. It reported that not less than 10 Awami League workplace holders had died in jail because the BNP took workplace, most with out having been charged. Households and legal professionals alleged that detainees had been denied enough medical care and that recent circumstances had been used to stop their launch after bail orders. Whereas acknowledging that some former officers confronted allegations of significant abuses, HRW referred to as for particular person opinions of detention and impartial investigations into all jail deaths.
Proposed adjustments to the cyber regulation added to considerations over media freedom. In September, the Committee to Shield Journalists warned that draft amendments might expose journalists to jail phrases of as much as 10 years for circulating materials authorities thought-about rumors or misinformation. It additionally warned that courts might droop or cancel information shops’ licenses when reporting challenged their accounts.
The federal government mentioned the amendments had been not meant to focus on journalists. Following objections from editors and media organizations, it agreed in late September to kind two committees to suggest safeguards.
Asif M. Shahan, a professor of improvement research on the College of Dhaka and a political analyst, noticed these considerations as a part of a wider drawback. He warned that adjustments to cybersecurity laws and the weakening of human rights oversight might strengthen the federal government’s hand towards its critics. “We’re seeing the beginnings of institutional mechanisms that might be used to weaken the opposition and dissenting voices,” he informed The Diplomat.
Nur Khan Liton, a human rights activist, mentioned eight months was too brief for a definitive evaluation, however he noticed some enchancment in contrast with the interval of Awami League rule. “In some areas, we have now seen substantial efforts by the federal government. Even so, it has no various however to take firmer motion,” he informed The Diplomat.
Liton pointed to alleged extrajudicial killings, deaths in police custody and jail, and assaults on Hindu communities. Mob violence was one other persistent concern. “We’re witnessing individuals being labeled in several methods after which subjected to violence by mobs,” he famous.
Political freedom additionally remained insecure, Liton mentioned. He cited the September 26 incident on the Dhaka headquarters of the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JASAD), or Nationwide Socialist Social gathering. The social gathering alleged that activists from the BNP and its youth wing, Jubo Dal, assaulted contributors at a scheduled assembly earlier than police detained a lot of individuals. Police mentioned they had been performing on info that Awami League members had gathered there; JASAD rejected that account. A Jubo Dal chief denied assaulting anybody. Liton described the incident as each undemocratic and illegal, saying he had seen no authorized motion towards the attackers.
Liton additionally questioned whether or not current authorized adjustments would go away individuals with fewer protections towards state abuse. He criticized the alternative legal guidelines governing the Nationwide Human Rights Fee and enforced disappearances as weaker than the measures they changed. In his evaluation, they’d restrict the fee’s capability to reply to violations by regulation enforcement businesses.
He feared that proposed cyber laws would additional prohibit expression, whereas assaults on media staff continued. “We can not say unequivocally that journalists are secure underneath this authorities,” he mentioned.
Reform Guarantees
By late September, the federal government was nonetheless consulting on constitutional adjustments that voters had endorsed in February’s referendum. These included limits on the prime minister’s tenure, a second chamber of parliament, and stronger safeguards for judicial independence.
On September 29, Dwelling Minister Salahuddin Ahmed mentioned the parliamentary committee aimed to end discussions by December. A report and an modification invoice would comply with at an unspecified date.
Disagreement over the reform bundle started nearly instantly after the election. The July Constitution implementation order envisaged elected MPs serving individually as a Constitutional Reform Council, with 180 working days from its first sitting to finish constitutional reforms. BNP lawmakers declined to take the council oath, arguing that adjustments ought to comply with the present structure. Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP lawmakers took each oaths and insisted that the referendum required the council route. The timetable was thus tied to a course of the events couldn’t agree to start.
The federal government as an alternative shaped a parliamentary committee in July, leaving 5 locations for opposition nominees. The opposition refused to hitch. This dispute additionally involved who would decide the substance of reform. The BNP maintained that its objections recorded when signing the constitution have to be revered; its opponents argued that the referendum offered a mandate for implementation.
On September 29, Salahuddin provided room for compromise on these objections if opposition events joined the talks. He reaffirmed help for a 10-year restrict on any particular person’s premiership, however mentioned the caretaker authorities’s construction remained undecided.
Different establishments had seen motion, though that didn’t at all times quantity to the adjustments promised. New appointments in August restored the Anti-Corruption Fee’s management after a 168-day emptiness. That allowed it to renew work on amassed complaints and investigations. However the appointments adopted the present regulation. The Heart for Governance Research’ Reform Watch famous that they didn’t set up the impartial appointment mechanism envisaged within the constitution. Restoring an establishment’s functioning and lowering political affect over it are separate duties.
September’s laws raised a extra critical query in regards to the path of reform. Parliament handed legal guidelines on the Nationwide Human Rights Fee and enforced disappearances on September 6. The disappearance regulation offered for prosecution, sufferer help, and compensation. But it positioned investigations involving safety forces with one other drive chosen by the federal government, moderately than the impartial fee.
Human Rights Watch argued that this reversed protections launched underneath the interim authorities. It additionally criticized restrictions on the fee’s capability to research safety businesses straight and the restoration of presidency affect over appointments.
The restructuring of the Fast Motion Battalion drew related criticism. September’s laws changed the Fast Motion Battalion with the Particular Response Battalion, transferring its personnel, powers and property. Human Rights Watch mentioned the change lacked enough provisions for impartial oversight and accountability. For households looking for solutions about disappearances and killings, the sensible query remained whether or not investigators might look at safety businesses with out relying on these businesses’ cooperation.
Eight months into BNP rule, constitutional guarantees had been nonetheless being negotiated, whereas some legal guidelines already handed had been being challenged for preserving the powers reform was purported to restrain.
Shahan, the College of Dhaka professor, mentioned holding an election was solely step one towards rebuilding democracy. Establishments additionally wanted the independence to examine authorities energy. “I don’t see any clear path relating to how the federal government truly intends to construct democratic establishments,” he informed The Diplomat. Whereas Shahan cautioned that eight months is simply too early for a last judgment, he mentioned strikes to weaken impartial oversight raised considerations.
Shahan feared that the BNP would select which reforms to pursue in keeping with its political pursuits, regardless of voters having endorsed adjustments in February’s referendum. He cited the proposed separate administrative workplace for the Supreme Courtroom, meant to scale back its dependence on the federal government. The BNP had not formally opposed that proposal, but it was not transferring ahead.
“I feel the BNP will finally proceed in keeping with its personal preferences and priorities,” Shahan mentioned.
