SINGAPORE: Because the Presidents of China and the USA are set to satisfy this week, Southeast Asia could nicely discover itself caught in the midst of the 2 superpowers amid a backdrop of world uncertainty intensified prior to now few months by the conflict within the Center East.
In keeping with the State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report launched in April by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, the most important concern within the area entails a rising mistrust in an more and more unpredictable US. Final yr, it was China’s aggressive strikes within the South China Sea.
The change is probably going as a result of double whammy of President Trump’s tariffs in April 2025 and the conflict within the Center East, which started when the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, 2026.
Furthermore, greater than half of the respondents from the area mentioned they might aspect with China over the US in the event that they wanted to decide on between the 2, whereas final yr, 52% of the members had chosen to aspect with the US.
A press release issued by the leaders of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after the summit held within the Philippines final week mentioned the battle within the Center East is “a grave risk to… regional and world peace and stability.”
Southeast Asian international locations have been notably hard-hit by the gasoline disaster that resulted from the battle, as a result of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for round 20% of the world’s vitality provide, a lot of which is sure for Asia. In consequence, nations within the area have been grappling with greater oil costs and scrambling to make sure an ample provide for home use.
Amid current difficulties, Southeast Asian international locations haven’t utterly turned to China however look like protecting each superpowers at arm’s size, in accordance with an opinion piece from The Lowy Institute. As an alternative, totally different nations have been turning to new partnerships, equivalent to these Singapore has cast with Australia and New Zealand, and Vietnam’s strikes towards Japan and South Korea. Even Russia has not been disregarded, with the Philippines and Vietnam trying to it as an alternate vitality supplier.
What Southeast Asia could also be hoping for, at greatest, is for there to be no vital modifications in any respect and for the upkeep of relative stability; in different phrases, for the superpowers to not make agreements that will be to the area’s detriment.
In a bit in Assume China titled Why Southeast Asia needs a boring Trump-Xi summit, Stephen Olson, Visiting Senior Fellow, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, wrote, “For international locations in Southeast Asia, the most effective real looking end result can be an unremarkable Trump-Xi summit that merely buttresses stability and tamps down prospects for an additional deterioration within the bilateral relationship.” /TISG
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